Now, I am an economics and finance major (I find it funny saying that since it's been 30 years) but economics are ingrained in me so I am a firm believer in supply and demand economics.  

Do you happen to have an HOA covering the neighborhood?

Mesa is a big area and can vary a lot depending on the neighborhood. 

If you do decide on MN, did a similar analysis as you a few months back in St Paul with rent-to-price ratios based on median price and median rents for each neighborhood in St Paul.

I've done some preliminary due diligence (as the lender) and feel I have a pretty firm understanding of how it works.

Rentals are extremely difficult to make pencil right now but would only personally consider higher end projects because the costs are far easier to absorb than trying to build in lower value neighborhoods.

Second link is a similar size, albeit 10 year older home, in Setagaya Ward (a very desirable neighborhood), but still "only $1.2M. https://www.homes.co.jp/kodate...https://www.homes.co.jp/kodate...(2) Age. 

The law firm handling tax foreclosures for the county put the tennis court lot up for auction.

IMO, the best strategy for that type of individual is to purchase residential property in an area they are or can become familiar with; in an area where the neighborhood is “on the rise”, typically where demand exceeds supply and people are spending $$$ on fixing up properties.  

You won't find a deal where you live for free, but if you can live in a great neighborhood at a reduced cost of living that is a nearly risk free way to get started in real estate.