The only real offer I got through FF was for $1700 a month, and I'd rather leave it empty than take that and pay for the heating bills and the extra wear and tear of long term renters.

If you are already planning to buy out-of-state and use property management, you are leaving money on the table and may want to look into more passive strategies since you don't seem to want to do management and you will still need to manage the manager.2.

Each tenant living in a building has their own unique rent amount, so even if they do not leave a notation with the rent payment, I know whom paid the rent based on the amount alone.

But it won't affect any remaining profit you leave in the 1031.Here's a couple thoughts that you'll need to think about to make a good decision.1.

New tenant security scheme that only benefits Suncoast and the tenant - leaves owner paying up at move out. 

To get to the ARV of $250,000 , I am assuming as follow:Because you spent $15,000 in renovation, I am assuming you increased the Initial value of the property at 30,000 bringing it at $230,000Add a 8.69% home appreciation for one year $20,000Estimated Home Value After 1 Year:$250,000Refinancing Breakdown:New Home Value (Post-Appreciation): $250,000 New Mortgage Amount (80% LTV): $200,000 Existing Mortgage Balance after 12 months: -$158,035 Assuming 3 Months Interest Penalty for Breaking Existing Mortgage: - $2371Total Cash Pulled Out: $39,594, allowing you to recover to pay a portion of your initial investment of $63,548, leaving $ $24,015 in the deal.Many new investors mistakenly believe the BRRRR strategy ends after the cash-out.

I need help finding statistics of appreciation, population growth, job growth.California of course has great appreciation and limited competition growth with high house prices making renting almost a necessity but I worry with more people leaving California then coming in this year that Phoenix might be a better investment in terms of long term growth.

As you indicated, make sure you leave something in the plan for contingencies (absolute minimum of 10%), and keep in mind the cost to hold during the time it's under construction and being marketed.Make a plan, check it twice, and decide if it's worth the effort. 

Again, other might feel differently here.b) Skin in the game: as a conservative investor, I understand that the dirty secret of industries that the waterfall compensation is in the line with me and incentivizes sponsors to take more risk.

The way it was explained to me was that I had to give them 60 days notice to leave the property.