1031 Exchange Phoenix vs L.A.

[Blake Kirby]

I am in a 1031 ex and honestly overwhelmed with deciding to stay in Los Angeles or move to Phoenix AZ. I could really use some advice. I need help finding statistics of appreciation, population growth, job growth.
California of course has great appreciation and limited competition growth with high house prices making renting almost a necessity but I worry with more people leaving California then coming in this year that Phoenix might be a better investment in terms of long term growth. Thoughts? Facts? Help?

Pros

L.A.

• Low vacancy 
• Renting is almost a necessity
• High rents
• Expensive 6-8 units vs 14-18

Con

• Rent control
• Laws are favoring tenants
• Mass exodus 

Phoenix 

• population growth 2.3%
• job growth at 2.1%
• no mold
• In the sunbelt IE good for baby boomers
• Cheaper 14-18 units vs 6-8

Con

• Hotter then Satan
• Lots of competition 
• Low rent 
• Higher vacancy?

This is the biggest decision of my life and I don't know what to do! Coming out of the 1031 I'll have about 620k to invest which means I am looking in the 1.5 to 2 million range if it matters. I am based in OC if anyone has recommendations on advisers Real estate, financial, meet ups, anything really.

[Melanie Johnston]

@Blake Kirby You're in a great position and you'll get lots of feedback here that can help you decide your direction. Speaking from the Arizona perspective, we are experiencing continued growth, attracting lots of new residents (Californians choose Texas and Arizona as their top 2 places to move).

Here's an economic forecast:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/economy/2019/12/11/arizona-state-university-annual-economic-forecast-predicts-slower-growth/4398074002/

Not sure where you are getting your "low rent" thoughts, maybe compared to CA. But Metro Phoenix is a leader in rent increases. Here's some proof:

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/49657-phoenix-leads-nation-in-multifamily-rent-growth/

Yes, it's hot here. But the weather is glorious for 6-7 months out of the year. It's definitely a competitive real estate market. But aren't all good markets, meaning that's where people want to invest? The more competitive market is definitely the 2-4 MF. I call it the BiggerPockets Effect.

It will probably all come down to the numbers for you. If you need help evaluating properties here, let me know.

We have so many companies moving here and expanding here. This list includes a few:

• Lucid Motors with 2,200 jobs
• Silicon Valley Bank with 300 jobs
• Raytheon Missile Systems with 1,000 jobs in Southern Arizona
• Microsoft Datacenters with 1,100 direct and indirect jobs
• CarMax with 430 jobs
• Infosys with more than 1,000 jobs
• And Hopebridge Therapy Centers with 650 jobs

On behalf of the Arizona investing community, I invite you to plan a visit here and see what's going on for yourself!

Melanie