If you have been through cycles you know what to look for.

Then they will also be unprofitable and they will sell them, it is a vicious cycle and there’s simply too many STR‘s in the Poconos right now, the demand isn’t there and basically no one is making any profits off STR right now in the Poconos, they’re basically all losing money month over month on STREven right now in peak Summer season, most of my friends places are barely booked: they have low occupancy rates, and when they are booked, it’s only because they had to lower their prices extremely low like $100 per night.

Many of the most successful (read as: founders that are worth well into the 9 figures, have survived multiple market cycles, etc) syndicators I know started by working in real estate for other companies.  

During this last cycle it’s been a game of musical chairs, sponsors have been able to raise rents and flip deals quickly to the next buyer because of an insatiable demand and an abundance of capital.

What, if any, does that have to do with the replacement property considering it will beginning it's own depreciation cycle?

Clearly you've studied real estate cycles thoroughly. 

Especially when it comes to observing how real estate cycles come and go.I discovered this post searching "Germany" and thought I'd reach out.

Personally I see little value in such groups (and regardless of where we are are aren't in the cycle).Second, a 2 to 3 year deal is actually very short.

@Sam ApplegateThree things you need to do in any market cycle.

However, if there are utlities in that market on 30 or 90 day billing cycles, that could be the issue.