Look at your numbers and make sure they are realistic and accurate.

Is that accurate?  

@John Varner First, if those numbers are accurate, that's a solid looking deal - congratulations.

Does the HOA have 100% accurate data on what homes are currently rented out ? 

The more deals I analyzed, the more I refined my spreadsheet, the more accurate my calculations were getting.During and after my first deal I learned a bunch of stuff and further refined my model so my expected outcome would better match reality in the future.

You can call some insurance companies to get actual quotes at any time, so a few phones calls can tell you if he is over paying. you also don't want to go completely cash poor to buy a deal, that's a tough gamble.

I don't feel I am that accurate.

This is essentially what I have been doing, but probably less accurately since I do not have access to the MLS at this point. 

My HML uses ClearCapital - https://www.clearcapital.com/ -- got a fair and accurate current and ARV estimate on a recent flip I did there after the first appraisal was WAY off.

The local advantage.I think Denver is more of a gamble, banking on appreciating.