New expenses show up you couldn't predict. 

Or if you like finding and closing deals, just get your RE license and work part time doing that as a RE agent ... otherwise, this is a business, not a hobby ... treating a business like a hobby has predictably poor results.

And it takes a ton of research and study to accurately predict where it'll end up in the future, just like with appreciation.

IanMy 2¢: If you are keeping it as a rental for long term, the ARV is not that relevant (you are not going to sell it and you can’t predict the FMV years from now) – you want the cashflow and ROI to be right.

If you know the rental market as well as anyone, and you can predict what a place will rent for, you know what you can afford to pay for a house. 

I see several posts where folks are :1) Trying to predict the crash using causality of metrics like lower unemployment and low interest rates2) Trying to preserve cash for the next crash, so they can buyI want to hone in on #2.

All of us would love to have a crystal ball and be able to predict what's coming, but we can't.

My best guess (I'll be the 1st to admit I may be wrong about this prediction) is some will make it through and we will likely see AZ laws that are clearer about noise violations and their consequences, liability insurance requirements for landlords, owner contact info on file with the city and/or county.

You could sell off these properties (which appear to cash flow nicely), buy something else and then find that the market has cooled (many are predicting a dip in the next 12-18 months) and that your new properties are not appreciating as you had thought....

Within the last week, Trulia came out with their predictions for 2017 and have listed Cape Coral/Fort Myers as the 2nd hottest real estate market in the nation.