But those travelers won’t return en masse until job growth resumes, business and consumer confidence perks up, and infection rates are on a sustained decline.

Although most private lenders have finite funds to lend, at least you could build up a resume of successful projects to take to another lender, HML or otherwise, and negotiate better terms.

First 3rd-person resume intro!  

or a nuclear war or some other apocalyptic event that destroyed the rule of law, having some gold is prolly a great idea, but those scenarios seem to have a low probability of happening to me.

BMC Capital in Dallas is a good source of commercial loans, but you're unlikely to get any lender interested without experience on your resume with projects of the size you're seeking.  

Even just yesterday, I couldn’t close on my 4-Plex because the Chase Bank system that catered to our particular transaction was down, not only was it down but we were in a fight against the clock as if Chase didn’t resume functionality timely then the seller was ready to walk.

I agree with you a down turn might have started. even though I am not in the bay area. in Seattle, the way you can tell is there are more for sale signs. price always follows inventory. when inventory starts going up, price will plateau and starts to fall a little bit. people are still coming here for jobs. so buyers are still here, except they start seeing more choices and interest rate is still favorable although climbing. so it's nothing like a crash is coming. but it does feel like a slow down is coming. another way you can tell is that all the new listings assume a 10% price increase is already baked in the market. it is a classic sign of a slow down or down turn if you will. my question is 15% drop is a big number, what if it doesn't happen before price resumes up trend again?

I am a numbers nerd, 3 years of mechanical/nuclear engineering before dropping because I didn't like that future. 

They will also look at your real estate resume, they will vet your property manager, require one year prepaid insurance, and ask for every possible document from the sellers!  

And have a large downpayment Bankruptcies = noneForeclosures = noneCredit = 680+Combined net worth >= loan amountLiquidity >= 9 months P&IDSC = 1.25+Experience in asset class = preferred (but you have to start somewhere and great credit, W-2s, and a large downpayment all help)These requirements will vary by borrower, lender, and property and are just a guide.I'd recommend having the following ready (1) personal balance sheet (2) prior two years tax returns (3) professional resume (4) schedule of real estate owned (if you have any rentals)...google it or I can send you mine.