I used to have this approach but with only quarterly adjustments you miss all the spikes that happen from demand. 

You need a very specific kind of market, a satellite market with strong ancillary feed from a major metropolitan market with significant appreciation, feeding back into revenue growth in the satellite market BUT the satellite market has not realized that big price spike as of yet.

During Covid it spiked up to $1700, crashed back down to the mid-$400s and spiked back up to over $1400 before stabilizing in mid-2022 where it has been in the range of $450-$500 since. 

I'm based in Vegas, and I was looking at buying to do rent by room, but with current interest rates and spike in prices, I wasn't seeing the numbers make sense from a cash flow perspective.

Also to your point there are some well heeled investors here on BP and I enjoy reading their views.

You can get a good idea when you look at DOM (days on market) and pay attention to what price points sit for months and what price points sell in a couple days.A lot of MSAs have seen prices soften since rates have spiked last fall, which goes to show that low rates were partially responsible for the exuberance in price gains over the last few years.

As long as we don’t see a spike in unemployment above 5% and inflation doesn’t tick up above 3% by Q3, the 2024 environment should bring back demand for homes.

“This significant shift in consumer expectations comes on the heels of the recent bond market rally and an already-significant downtick in 30-year mortgage rates, from their high of nearly 8 percent in early November to 6.62 percent as of this past week,” Palim said.Although not factored into the HPSI, 43 percent of consumers surveyed in December said they thought it would be easy for them to get a mortgage, up from a 2023 low of 40 percent in September.Among all survey respondents, the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up decreased to 31 percent, down from 44 percent in November.

I have seen the prices spike this year and like you say, they are all overpriced and there are tons of people out bidding each other...  

Runoff issues can be seasonal, with spikes of certain pollutants after heavy snow melt or rain events.