Prices a few years ago were based on expectations of (in addition to interest rates staying low): - Then current operating cost assumptions (like insurance cost expectations being flat)- A seeming disregard for record levels of new inventory / supply hitting the market- Extremely high inbound migration expectations which are likely to not be met, due to both natural disasters and the boomerang effect when people from California or the Northeast move to the American South and hate every minute of the humidity, the large and relentless swarm of insects, and the occasional hurricane. 

Used what I know from wholesaling to come up with the estimations The numbers is used are based on a these assumptions:- Cost to build* (2024) = 150/sqft National average, 141/sqft Tennessee Average (Source: Houzeo  https://www.houzeo.com/blog/how-much-does-it-cost-to-build-a-house-tennessee/#:~:text=The%20average%20cost%20per%20square,idea%20of%20the%20construction%20costs.)- All in Cost = Cost to build * Square foot  - Sales Price = All in Cost + (All in cost * 20%)* Covers contractor and soft cost on either fee based or cost+- Profit = (Sales price - (Sales Price * 7%))* - All in Cost   accounts for agent fees and closing cost- Initial List Price = Sales price + 10%      A buffer to test market absorption- Break Even being All in cost, point where everyone is paid except me. - List price is to test the market absorption at "x" price. 250k land + build.

No different than if the mortgage amount was more than anticipatedThe assumption here is your purchase price was going to pay off the mortgage and the other liens - If not you don’t cancel closing you let them cancel it because they cannot bring funds to closing

To me STR and hotel caters to different groups of travelers and so despite competition as long as the travel demand of Hawaii remains (as you pointed out is a robust assumption) I think both will continue to do well.  

Quote from @Michael Smythe: @Zachary YoungRecommend you first figure out the property Class you want to invest in, THEN figure out the corresponding location to invest in.Property Class will typically dictate the Class of tenant you get, which greatly IMPACTS rental income stability and property maintenance/damage by tenants.If you apply Class A assumptions to a Class B or C purchase, your expectations won’t be met and it may be a financial disaster.If you buy/renovate a property in Class D area to Class A standards, what quality of tenant will you get?

No if potential buyer have given you emd than you are under the assumption this is a serious buyer and will close on the deal but he has only a certain amount of time with his inspection period so if he backs out you still have time to fund another buyer. 

I have several assumption buyers as well as some investors who pay above market for a 4% interest rate.Thanks Alan

@Michael Benanti Can you provide the apps proforma assumptions and algorithm?

Again, others might feel differently here.3) property level due diligence: (takes seconds to weeks per deal): here is where I drill in with the low-level details.a) pro forma popping: I examine all the assumptions, and see if they are overoptimistic or not.

It's like drafting a rookie QB and expecting to win the Super Bowl his rookie year.Based on the tax increase, my assumption is you chose a great appreciating neighborhood and have a similar mentality to me.