Repairs could cost more money and take more time, and the sales price could be lower than expected (or your estimates too optimistic).The first value, your cost to acquire the property, is the one you have the most control over.

The optimistic of us come up with deals that we love, but there is wisdom in the counsel of many.

Sometimes the pro-forma numbers provided by TK companies can be optimistic and may not account for some of the expenses

You could be optimistic and hope the tenant signs your lease on your agreed upon terms but I wouldn't take the risk.  

If it doesn't pass that test, but looks good with a complex analysis, then your complex analysis is most likely making overly optimistic predictions about the future.I do agree with Dan's statements about separating inputs from outputs.

I will look into it, but I don't think enough leases are expiring soon to make it.I based 750k ARV on ~750 rents, which are fair, but I'm counting on at least 700, not 800, which are possible and would be nice, but are a bit optimistic.

It's easy to be rosy eyed and optimistic and see big cash flows from big projects.

The Wall Street Journal and USA (Obama) Today have two optimistic articles.

very optimistic in my opinion.

And i'm actually somewhat optimistic about my ability to establish such a team as I have a bit of experience owning rentals already, and worked as a recruiter for a bit.