All Forum Posts by: Ty Robinson

I might be interested as well. Could you send details?

Hey @Charles Curameng. Sounds like an awesome meetup!

What might be good would be to create an email list and add names of people that want to do the meet ups. Some people might not be able to make every meeting but can drop in when available. Then you can grow this list and thus the meetups and local resources!

Hey @Rechung Fujihira!

met you at BoxJelly a few years back. Nice to see you on BP! let me know if there is anything I can help with!

They are different asset classes and not necessarily correlated to all the same underlying economic metrics though they 'can and do' have overlap. 

The more important thing to look at would be where we are in the current short-term debt cycle. That has a more interesting, broad effect on both markets. The long-term debt cycle is also getting long in the tooth, however, that is a lot harder to track/predict than short term. Stocks have been fantastic since 2009 with very nice valuations that year. Now the valuations are not as nice and deals are harder to find. 

Real estate in Hawaii appears nearer to the end of its historical up cycle as well. Although nobody can accurately call the exact tops and bottoms, the leading indicator for Hawaii markets has always been volume. If closed sales volume drops, prices will historically follow. Currently, volume is strong and still in an uptrend, leading to the assumption (discounting any Black Swans!) that 2016 will be yet another year of gains in Hawaii RE as a market. 

During the end of the long-term debt cycle, the Fed will find it harder and harder to stimulate the economy with money printing, as the spreads between borrowing costs and asset returns get smaller. You can see this has been happening over the last few decades with the funds rate for close to a decade at 0% and the effects not quite being spectacular within the economy. 

Oil and other commodities are also at historic lows. I say historic in reference to commodities in relation to the S&P500 for example. The divergence is huge. Most investors are speculating on a snap back to the mean at some point. 

Personally, the stock market crashing would be fantastic. I only like to buy things on sale! if the SPX cant hold its long term support line that its held for years now, things could get interesting and I might put my seatbelt on. Its currently very volatile right around that price level. 

Question for Hawaii investors. Anyone here specialize in the Apartment building or MultiUnit (Commercial Residential) market on Oahu Hawaii? (4+ unit commercial residential). 

Im looking to connect with fellow investors interested in this space or that have done some deals in this space.