Originally posted by @William Jenkins:
@Michael Haas - Markets vary obviously, but I wouldn't be too sure that there is a "HUGE" meta trend ahead for millennials and condos/apartments. I think that trend is coming to an end. Reasons:
1. COVID accelerated the work from home movement. Millennial buyers are more likely than other generations to partake in this. Living in sub optimal conditions to be close to work is no longer necessary.
2. COVID destroyed the vibrancy that draws millennials to the City. What good is living in a trendy area if nothing is happening. Some of this will come back, but I think more than you think will be gone for good.
3. Millennial buyers are now getting older. That means kids and then eventually the suburbs for schools. That takes priority over being withing walking distance of 2 brew pubs, an Asian fusion restaurant, and a whisky bar.
On point 3, I've argued for a long time that Millennials aren't really that different from any other generation. You start sharing and apartment, graduate to your own condo/apartment, and then move to a house. We are shifting to the "move to a house" part of that process from what i am seeing. COVID isn't the main cause but it is accelerating the process.
Disclosure: Born in 1981 so according to most definitions I am a millennial.
All correct. WFH, political/safety concerns are accelerating the change in the Seattle downtown market.
I've seen a lot of Millennials selling downtown properties and buying on the eastside. They bought them for easier commute before covid, to avoid the Seattle traffic.
Now large firms moving to the eastside and allowing WFH for another year. Also, the historic low interest and high price happened in the past few months. It all makes people easier to make the decision to move. Almost all Millennials who live in Seattle are either moving or consider moving.
It is not hard to expect average condos and townhomes to have a price drop. Luxury ones will be fine for a while. An inventory increase is in happening. We will keep seeing a continuous appreciation for DT Seattle only if the following happens: 1. high inflation, 2. The city suddenly takes care of the increasing homeless issue and PD issue
(I understand homeless people are the ones who need the most help, but letting them take over the city hurt normal residents' safety is not helping. Also, we all need cops. Sadly one of my clients got abused and robbed during daytime last week, and the cops didn't show up for15 mins)
Furthermore, a huge amount of new apartment buildings constructing around the eastside. Most of them going to be finished before 2022. Just think about it.
