Jack & Shweta - clearly you've both done your homework, I will continue preaching to the choir and get even a little more granular on the positive points you have made:
Affordability: Wage growth has lagged cost of housing growth in the U.S. over the past 35 years. This trend is expected to continue for years to come. Housing is a necessity and MHC is one of the most cost-effective options.
- Increasing Demand Across Age Cohorts: Boomers downsizing coupled with a growing number of Americans who can no longer afford to rent or own traditional housing continues to drive demand for MHC - see chart below.
- Limited Supply: Only 10 new MHC sites have been approved in the U.S. over the last two decades - see chart below.
- Downcycle Outperformance: MHC is the least sensitive property type to negative changes in GDP - the average stay in in MHC is 13 years, unheard of in residential real estate - resulting in stable predicatble cash flow with an ability to consistently, yet responsible increase rents.
Lastly, a quick glance at some MHC investors and proponents:
Warren Buffett is a significant investor in the MHC space, favoring the sector for its stable, predictable cash flow. He owns Clayton Homes and 21st Mortgage, the largest manufacturer and largest financier of manufactured homes in the country, respectively.
Sam Zell is on record as saying that MHC is the one property type he would never sell. In 1998, he started Equity Lifestyle Properties (NYSE: ELS), the largest MHC REIT in the nation by market cap. ELS has reported quarter-over-quarter NOI growth for 20 consecutive years, including throughout the Great Recession.
Blackstone is one of the largest, most sophisticated real estate and private equity investors in the nation. In June 2018, the company made their first foray into the MHC space, acquiring a 14-asset portfolio for $172M.
Green Street is the gold-standard for independent research within the commercial real estate industry. The firm has had MHC as its top performing property type for the last year and a half and a November 2018 report described MHC as “one of the most attractive property types in both the public and private markets due to 1) a best-in-class cap-ex profile; 2) structural barriers to new supply; and 3) still-too-high nominal cap rates.”
Best, TK