I generally agree with you Scott.
A few thoughts:
1. Prices may continue to drop in 2025 and even in 2026, but buy deals today if they cash flow and make sense. don't wait to time the market. We bought 2 assets in late 2024 that are currently cash-flowing 7%+ to investors, with additional upside. In the last crash, I was buying like crazy from 2008-2016. The bottom happened around 2013. Had I waited until the bottom, I would have missed out on 50+ amazing deals.
2. I don't see nationwide rent increases happening much until mid-2026. I don't see big 5%+ rent increases happening until 2027 as it will take a while to burn off all of the supply. A lot of this also hinges on interest rates and the SF homebuyer market. If rates and prices go up, then there will be a ton of renter demand that could fast forward rental the market.
3. Buyers that bought 3-5 years ago are not cooked. Will there be some distress? Yes, but I don't think there will be much. The banks have been encouraged by the fed to work deals out with borrowers and I think that will continue to happen. Also, it's still a small percentage of owners that have floating rate debt. I think a lot of these deals limp along for the next 3-5 years and then sell. It may end up being a loss or small gain, but most of them won't end up being a fire sale.
This is exactly what will end up keeping prices flat for a long time. These companies will end up holding on to buildings for longer than they planned, keeping inventory low.