All Forum Posts by: Steve W.

@Carlos Ptriawan If you are going to make those claims that you "know", you need to post your research.

@Zachary Beach Nicely done, thanks for the reply - a good example of choosing a strategy that fits the market.

@Jason W. I love these questions, because I don't know how one can make a decision when suggestions are given without any hard data as justification. I sure can't.

You mention "high growth" and "good positive cashflow." I am going to assume you are saying you want a growth market (good fundamentals) but can still give you some positive cashflow - in other words you want both but prioritize growth.

I put a chart together from Census and BLS data from 2010-2019, used to compare different MSA. I included the cities you mentioned, plus a few more mentioned so far in this thread. I take "Growth" to mean demand, which is population growth, along with a corresponding job growth. And ideally, those jobs a good high paying jobs, meaning income growth (which allows people to pay more for housing). However there is also supply side, which I take to be permits pulled as a percentage of existing housing units, and general affordability (median income / median house price), the higher the ratio the more people can afford to pay for housing. That's the general idea behind the chart.

The following is my own opinion to help describe the charts, but that's all it is - my own interpretation. I am not saying any are good or bad markets, the question to ask is - do they meet your goals/criteria?

Austin and Nashville look like high growth, Memphis and Philly not so much. Comparing Nashville to Austin, looks like they have comparable affordability, with more permits (supply) being added to Nashville. Therefore at first glance it appears Austin has the better supply/demand growth metrics, of the markets you listed in your opening post. 

Some other markets commentary: Colorado Springs has a good mix of growth and balanced supply, Phoenix's growth seems to be outpacing the permitting, and Columbus though lower growth also looks pretty balanced. 

I think it's also worth to take a look how the markets have handled 2020 job losses and recovery.

Most node-dived pretty hard, but if you compare Memphis vs Philly, which has comparable job growth numbers at the peak, looks like Memphis has essentially recovered whereas Philly is flattening. Nashville and Austin have high job growth and look to be recovering well, Phoenix less so.

Last thing I'll mention is a concept of "shadow supply" or potential hidden supply to come on the market due to fallout of foreclosures from 2020 and moratoriums, as described by Ken McKelroy. This is not a prediction, it's just looking at data and trying to take your best educated guess. Check out his videos on youtube, and here is one of the links he provided. 

U.S. Foreclosure Trends | RealtyTrac

@Zachary Beach "The grass isn't greener. Our properties average over 30%CoC of equity in California." Curious how and where you are achieving these numbers? And example illustration using your actual numbers that give you that yield?

What makes a good real estate client? isn't talked about enough, thanks! To be successful always requires understanding the other side, even if being snarky ;)

@Christopher John McCarthy glad it was helpful :) Hats off to you for spending time in Phoenix prior to committing. How was your experience in Phoenix that has led you look elsewhere?

@Aaron Lancaster Can you try again? I forgot to click the checkbox that allows sharing and hopefully you'll be able to view now.

@James Carlson Thanks for the reply! Love the honesty = insight. 

Cashflow is not the end all, and I don't think that is even 1% controversial :) Because it depends on your goals, I don't need cashflow so it is not my goal. However I do want it to cover expenses, so as long as cashflow is $0+ I'm good ;)

Anyone have experience with the BP Foreclosure Marketplace, any tips how to make most use of it? BiggerPockets Foreclosure Listings

There isn't any information about it and there's a monthly subscription fee. The problem is I don't know what I'm getting with the subscription...

@Carl Flint "a wash" is just a saying that means "no advantage" as in one choice is not better than the other.

The 100k at 15% was referring to purchasing stock, not real estate, since the stock market is something more mainstream people might be more familiar with. And is typically not purchased with leverage.

Whereas real estate is purchased with leverage which makes it so much more powerful.