All Forum Posts by: Amit M.

@Sol Bier the big difference WRT future appreciation is that the 2nd tier cities and burbs have plenty of space to build out new construction, and S.F. and Manhattan do not. So for the short term S.F./NYC will have flat to mild RE price declines, but 2+ years from now I bet that it will be business as usual, and these prime areas will soar again. In other words, over the next decade I expect another leg up on the chart below:

@Raymond Ng if you can put ~ 40% down try East West Bank (branches all over SF). They do asset based loans (no income check) at really good interest rates. Otherwise it’s hard money, where you will pay a crazy interest rate,  not worth it for buy and holds imo. 

long

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keeps

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3words/1chart

I think the recent work from home hysteria is a fallacy. Conceptually, working from home has NOTHING to due with covid 19. If it’s so awesome, why wasn’t it adapted en mass years ago? Yahoo a couple years back even rolled back WFH. It’s a trend that will have some effect yes, but it’s being way over hyped. For two main reasons: 1- I’m not sure it will really provide long term benefits to the tech firms jumping on the bandwagon now 2- I’m not sure how many employees will ultimately like it, after the forced-Covid-novelty wears off. i.e. it’s hard to get all those cool tech co benefits like free gourmet food, gyms, awesome office spaces, etc., etc. piped over a zoom meeting ;)

As for WFH effect on the Bay Area, keep in mind that when people work from home, their direct environment becomes MORE, not less important. Would you rather be home based in the Bay Area with tons of things to do nearby, good weather, lots of nature, etc. or someplace with little culture, extreme temperatures, bland immediate environment, etc., etc. There is a reason many people, who can afford to do so, aspire to live in CA and especially the Bay Area. Working from home isn’t going to radically change those aspirations.

FYI- TIC to condo conversion only possible for 2 units, not 3+

@Diane G.  What’s the pre covid and post covid rent difference? Is this Russian hill?

cash

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keys

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3words

In San Francisco it’s mostly wood decks. PT wood for all the structure, then redwood for the flooring and handrails, as it looks and feels much better than PT on feet and hands :). I don’t stain or paint them! That helps with maintenance. At lease in our climate they can last a long time. On roof decks I put those snap together composite “tiles”...better than having tenants walk on a flat roof and eff it up. Water drains under the tiles. So far so good, but they mildew more than the wood, and discolor and maybe warp a bit too. In that sense the wood is better. 
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my2c

@Susan M. good luck with it, and keep us posted as to what (and why) decision you ended up making

@Susan M. yes you do need to make a big decision if selling property right now wrt 1031, or keeping money under mattress for better times ;)

One interesting question is if it’s better to get into a super conservative dst- no/little debt, only essential big business like *Walgreens, Costco, etc. Or to get into one making a value add play, whereby they will improve an asset so it becomes more profitable (and perhaps a safer investment). I suppose the devil is (as usual in almost any type of RE venture) in the details. Especially since dst cannot raise additional funds if they get into a cash flow crunch- that’s the part that worries me. You need to understand what their work around options are (besides blowing up the tax free dst nature, and just becoming a conventional taxable operation.)

*Walgreens- yes it’s a huge essential business company, BUT, Walgreens actually closed a few branches in blue chip market San Francisco late last year. Who would have thunk/Food for thought. 

Bottom line- imo- is if you gear towards very conservative dst’s and diversity like mad, you will face the least risks. Returns may be meh, but at least you don’t pay a lot in up front taxes and probably preserve all or most of your capital. Live to fight another day...so to speak.

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my2c