All Forum Posts by: Amit M.

@Susan M. yes you do need to make a big decision if selling property right now wrt 1031, or keeping money under mattress for better times ;)

One interesting question is if it’s better to get into a super conservative dst- no/little debt, only essential big business like *Walgreens, Costco, etc. Or to get into one making a value add play, whereby they will improve an asset so it becomes more profitable (and perhaps a safer investment). I suppose the devil is (as usual in almost any type of RE venture) in the details. Especially since dst cannot raise additional funds if they get into a cash flow crunch- that’s the part that worries me. You need to understand what their work around options are (besides blowing up the tax free dst nature, and just becoming a conventional taxable operation.)

*Walgreens- yes it’s a huge essential business company, BUT, Walgreens actually closed a few branches in blue chip market San Francisco late last year. Who would have thunk/Food for thought. 

Bottom line- imo- is if you gear towards very conservative dst’s and diversity like mad, you will face the least risks. Returns may be meh, but at least you don’t pay a lot in up front taxes and probably preserve all or most of your capital. Live to fight another day...so to speak.

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my2c

I dunno...I’d spend the extra $83,000 a year just to avoid Austin summers, plus gain the myriad walkable amenities S.F. has to offer.

TIC

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3letters

I dunno...I think a significant amount of DST's are at high risk right now. Commercial real estate is clearly in a precarious state due to covid, and a lot of unprecedented things are happening with leases not being honored by some blue chip corporations. A lot of retail, non drive through restaurants, mom and pop strip malls, etc. are at risk. Everyone can't just jump to the surviving assets like distribution centers, warehouses, supermarkets, essential businesses, etc. Of course it's going to be very asset and operational/holding out/reserves dependent. But we need to see some aggregate analysis once 6-12 months time elapse. But I would NOT be surprised at all if a significantly high percent of current DST's (And their investors) get hosed. The more interesting question is when will there be the inevitable fire sales, and THEN the newly forming DST's will start to get real interesting as investments 🧐

i

ain’t 

selling

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3words

I agree. $1mil in equity now may mean $2mil in equity 10-15 years from now in prime Bay Area. 

Apartment bldg in some rando area 10-15 years from now? Not so much.

Ok, more seriously, for some veteran posters it’s one of those “it’s not you, it’s me” breakups. It’s not that the forums have necessarily devolved (after all you pick and choose which to read and engage in.)  It’s that when you first signed up, 1- you probably had a lot more to learn, and 2- everything was new and novel. Now, many veteran posters are old pros, with diminishing returns (except for business lead generation or entertainment purposes.) I know that personally I’m finding less and less posts useful.

forums 

getting

boring

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3 bitchy words

@Spencer Hsu I see it this way: While it’s easy to get in and out of stocks, real estate is a long term buy and hold- especially in the Bay Area, where you’re making your big gains on appreciation. So it’s usually best to hold on during downturns, and wait for the next upswing. But you do needs reserves or manageable cashflows.

@David Song I think that is what you’re aiming for too? I appreciate your optimism for the long term prospects of the Bay Area. Are you long term buy and hold?

@David Song to his defense, what he is saying is that he’s not expecting to perfectly “time” the market to an ideal date. What’s he’s saying, for the Bay Area, is that the chance is greater that prices will go down somewhat rather than go back up this year. So might as well wait and see. Prices won’t tank here, but they may soften more, and be flat for awhile. That’s a good time to buy. Going back to the Great Recession of 2008-9- ballers brought in 2009 or 2010. But you could also get great deals in 2012, when there was already clear evidence that the worst was already behind us. I’m referring strictly to prime Bay Area markets, as I don’t closely follow others, so YMMV.

But for people buying their own home, if they find a decent deal now, and expect to hold it for 5+ years, then it may be worth to go ahead and get in the market. There are some benefits- market is more even keeled now, and rates are low. Especially if you’re looking at specific neighborhoods and specific types of homes. In the Bay Area there is often low inventory, and if you’re specific in your needs, you may want to get in when the opportunity avails itself. In 10 years time it won’t matter if you got in at bottom ore close to bottom.