All Forum Posts by: Ross Bowman

So, I am just about to close on another apartment community, and if @Joshua Dorkin is right, I am in trouble...

Josh - am I in trouble? Lol

There are actually far fewer gurus today than at certain points in the past, you're just too young to know any different :)

Having said this - what is the point of this post? Are you telling us that you are too late to the party, not buying and waiting for the cycle to change? If not that, what are you saying?

I am new to the industry and a bit overwhelmed by the amount of gurus on social media. In my market and personally, I only know of a couple of them but since I spend most of my time online these days, it seems like I cant get away from gurus. I have noticed its also really bad with stock market because everyone is making money on that as well. Every friend I have right now that uses Robinhood has been making money outside of the few who use options.

I am a appraiser in Florida.  The best metric to watch is local sales and listings.  If sales are increasing and listing decreasing not hard to see.  But watch for when either or both happen.  Sales start to slow and/or inventory is increasing.  Sort or research based on the property type you invest in.  Every month call your realtor and get updates on different areas of town the whole town.  You need to see the data.  I could tell the market had started turning in the end of 05 in my market.  Couldn't believe I was the only one seeing this but I was fixing to buy a large package of lots and start a development.  Best thing I ever did was nothing.  To this day I see most appraiser don't even considered this data. 

Originally posted by @Ross Bowman:

Originally posted by @Matt R.:

Originally posted by @Ross Bowman:

Originally posted by @Justin Thorpe:

The debate on this is meaningless. Those who have missed the boat on the upside are crying for a crash and calling BTC a bubble or a Ponzi scheme or whatever. That’s human nature unfortunately.

 Spot on. Psychologically, it's easier to call for a crash than say "I was wrong". 

Short version: bitcoin is *the best performing asset of the decade*. 10 years is too long for a bubble. Bitcoin also goes in four year cycles, following every halving, which is what happened in May. What we're seeing now isn't speculation - this is math. 

Most bitcoin naysayers just don't understand the above. But a quick YouTube, or documentary, can clear it up. 

It has become dangerous to ignore Bitcoin; you can't fight the signal. 

It is potentially the first new financial asset class to come around in 400 years. Bitcoin is actually multiple things and maybe why it is harder for some old schoolers to get their head around. It is still risky however the math don't lie as you pointed out.

 Yep. And to be honest, once one learns about how halving cycles work, it stops even seeming risky. 

The supply is cut every four years until there are no more bitcoins introduced into circulation. Yes it swings like crazy, but the overall trend is up.

Tulips R US

It is potentially the first new financial asset class to come around in 400 years. Bitcoin is actually multiple things and maybe why it is harder for some old schoolers to get their head around. It is still risky however the math don't lie as you pointed out.

The debate on this is meaningless. Those who have missed the boat on the upside are crying for a crash and calling BTC a bubble or a Ponzi scheme or whatever. That’s human nature unfortunately.

@Ross Bowman @Dana Boyd

There is no MHP calculator on BP, which may change in the next year or so as more new investors get into this space. And please, do not attempt to use any of the BP calculators to analyze MHP. 

There are a number of MHP calculators floating around that are pretty solid. I have fashioned my own out of Michael Blank's SDA, but the best I have run across can be found by joining the MHP Tribe group on Facebook. We have a shared file in drive that has a number of resources including that deal analyzer. There are also a number of videos where we go over the calculator in detail.

Hey Ross,

I think you may be falling into "analysis paralysis" mode which I'm guilty of as well. Look at other ADUs for rent in your local market. With you being in a sort of 'nursing community' I don't think you would struggle with renting it out. 

Having that said the choice of ADU or SFR or MFR is completely up to you and your goals as an investor. Maybe run some numbers on the ROI of a 200k rental property in your area and see if this deal would make sense.

Feel free to contact me with any other additional REI questions. Good luck!

I would recommend George Allen's books: Manufactured Home Community Management and How to Find, Buy, Manage, and Sell a Manufactured Home Community as truly objective works.

That said, if you really want to "own a parking lot", run away from owning communities. As a (now retired)  managing partner of nationally recognized consultancy in the manufactured housing industry I cannot tell you how many people we have worked to save from ruin who got into our industry in the late 80s or the 1990s when it was fairly easy who were on the rocks after 2000.

Owning manufactured housing communities is extremely lucrative for those who know what they are doing and are willing to work very long hours to make it happen, but even for those who have the knowledge and expertise, it isn't easy and the need to constantly learn new information is constant. 

With the election of Biden for example, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is about to come out of hibernation and all of the plans they had before Trump took office will come off the back burners which will have a profound effect on the viability of manufactured housing communities. When Ben Carson leaves, HUD, they will return as enemies of the whole MH industry. Community owners will need to adapt and learn expensive new solutions to just survive.

The owners who know what they are doing and who invest in new knowledge and strategies will do just fine and likely profit from buying out those who don't have what it takes. This won't be the first, or the last, time this happens.

I hope this warning helps.