Originally posted by @David Dachtera:
Dunno, Edward.
A couple in my investing group just posted on Facebook a (carefully redacted) image of their latest net-profit check on a fix-and-flip: $97K on a mid-scale home in a middle-class area of the Chicago suburbs. One of the group leaders just made $150K net on his most recent rehab. Other profits range down as low as $20K. So, there is money to be made.
However, I can see where the current economic climate may be outside some folks' comfort zone. It takes savvy and expertise in property selection and analysis as well as keen negotiating skills and, sometimes, knowing when to walk away rather than pursue a marginal deal.
In an earlier post, you cited the difference between your P&I and PITI as being around $415. I'd be curious how much of that is insurance, and are those insurance issues due to your location (VA, possible hurricane risks of flooding, tornado damage, wind damage).
For comparison, my property tax works out to some $370/mo. Doesn't seem to be "depressing" the housing market as much as the dearth of lending is doing. Assessments in this area have been lowered the past four years running. Only this year is my assessment raised due to the market recovery.
Just one area, I grant you, but not atypical of what Chicago Metro has seen in the greater scale.
For what it's worth...
Basically my real estate tax is only a little more than $2500 this year. Next year I am sure it will increase again. Seeing how the insurance companies have a relationship with God on Hurricanes that my home owners insurance seems to be high. I don't need or have flood insurance even though I am within a block of the harbor here. However, at the same time my home will not likely sell for what the city has it assessed for. I know this is going on in most areas. The city did reduce the assessment of housing here a few years back, but now it is back to full steam ahead. Matter of fact they increased the tax rate to make up for the assessment loss. Some saved, while others got the short end of the stick. We also have something that is called the Chesapeake Bay Foundation here as well. Along with my 100 dollar water bill every two months, I also get a separate bill for sewage that is around 25 to 35 dollars. This is due to the cleaning the sewage twice. The city keeps raising the taxes, and the citizens get nothing in return. Only the high city officials get the raises.
Now I will also tell you that the area I am in, is about the same is J. Scotts'. We did not really get hit hard by the down turn in real estate. The reason is because of Government influence, and Government salaries. However, decreasing the size of the Armed forces has made a difference here already, and will continue to do so. In no way I am saying that it has hurt home prices or home sales, matter of fact this summer was good for realtors. I can say this: The flippers are still making some money, but not like before, I am sure. What the banks want are getting higher by the day, while the condition of the properties are getting much worst.
Now I am someone that looks around the east coast nearly everyday looking for deals, few are to be found now. Sure you can pick up a home that should be appraised for 250 thousand, but when you look at the sales data in that area, you will see the comparable's are selling for much less. Matter of fact the biggest problems here real estate agents have faced is that the bank agrees to a short sale, and the appraiser, appraises the home for full price. It is either that, or houses that should be appraised for much more are appraised for less than they should be.
I agree with J. Scott on the selling of homes in the last few years as well. The thing is, that home sales are up, but not really. Many homes are being sold for less money than should be. Matter of fact you can pick up an existing home for a whole lot less than a new home. It would cost twice is much to build the home than what an existing home is selling for. And that is at full price.
I have bought a home that was built in 1979 that is over 2200 sqft, with a two car attached garage on an acre of land. In the same area it would cost $338,000 to build the house today. I paid well under $100,000 for it. The house will be in brand new condition when I finish with it, and I still will be well under $100,000 for the house and the land. I am flipping it and moving in, and putting my home up for rent. I can assure you this, that it will be much easier to rent my home than sell it in this market, even though the rent will be higher than the payment. I see this everyday here. It does not make sense to me, but that is the way it is. People with high credit scores are renting rather than buying. Did the housing market crash scare them that bad?
Just to let you know, I saw a house sell here on waterfront for $179,000, and that included an attached garage and a 3 car detached garage in one of the better school districts. The home was built in 1983 and is 1800sqft. You also were able to put in a boat dock across the street on the land that was with the home. And that property did not require flood insurance either. I don't know what the new owner is going to do with the property, but I believe I will see it for rent soon. Here, about $20,000 is about all you can plan to make on a flip at present. I am seeing houses sitting on the market for years now in the 5 to 6 hundred thousand dollar and above price ranges. I believe in my area homes that are selling between 150 to 200 thousand mark is the sweet spot. - However, it had better be a show place to sell for that, because the city is funding developers to build new houses in that price range. And just to let J. Scott know, they are doing the same in Baltimore and many other cities as well. I would not be surprised if Chicago is doing the same?
So the bottom line of what I am seeing, that yes homes are selling ok. However, I cannot see this continuing. How can anyone compete with subsidized housing, especially when their taxes are paying the bill for them? How long will be people pay their mortgage on these homes, and how long will it be before you see them on the foreclosure list? Yes the housing market is doomed and will continue to be that way until the Government gets their hands out of it.