All Forum Posts by: Richard Warren

I’ve always taken what Realtors say with a grain of salt. They certainly wouldn’t say the sky is falling when they rely on the market to feed their families. But the points I made about what they say are verifiable. The available inventory is way down and the banks put an REO on the market and receive multiple offers in days and then ask for a “highest and best†offer. It seems they’ve figured out how to get these houses sold fairly quickly.

I don’t invest here because the market was so overheated when I moved here that I wouldn’t touch it. I found other areas that have worked well for me.

Realtors have long talked about how Vegas will be the first to recover. I think that’s a joke. When the economy eventually recovers (it could be a very long eventually) Vegas will probably be in the middle to lower end of the pack.

:cool:

Originally posted by Rich Weese:

A contrarian post. Wait. I don't live or market Vegas, so I have no ulterior motives.

Just for the record - I live in Vegas but I do not have any investments in this market, mine are elsewhere. I also don't market here because I am not a realtor nor do I have anything to sell.

1- Regarding the foreclosure barrage, that is an opinion that I have seen stated both ways. In my previous post I referred to how I feel about predictions. We won't really see until after the fact. I was merely stating what I hear from agents.

2- Rents have already dropped quite a bit and I'm seeing things I haven't in some time. Apartment complexes offering move-in incentives. Investors have been grabbing these foreclosures and renting them for anything they can get while waiting for the market to rebound. Another factor is that the area has experienced a population decrease for the first time in 23 or so years. So more supply from these foreclosures being rented and decreased demand because of a population dip reults in lower rents. You also see more people doubling up, getting roommates, etc.

On a long-term basis Las Vegas still has great weather and entertainment as a draw. For that reason I wouldn't expect it to become another Detroit.

:cool:

Predictions are like…well, anyone has one anyway. Based on sales in the market I doubt you will see such a drastic reduction from where we are now. A couple of months ago the median home price rose for the first time in 39 months. Inventory is also a concern. Some of the biggest complaints I hear from agents in the REO market are that there isn’t enough inventory and competition is fierce. There have been bidding wars and unless you are a cash buyer you will have a hard time competing. That doesn’t seem to indicate a market that is going to drop another 30%.

On the other hand, approximately 70% of homeowners are upside down and the number of walkaways is likely to increase. The number of commercial foreclosures is expected to rise as well. So an additional price drop is certainly not out of the question.

:cool:

Again, what do you expect to get? It’s not magic. I’ve been rehabbing for 18 years and can tell you that you will learn more by doing than anything else. So many of these high-priced courses are full of fluff and rah-rah, you can do it hype. The ideal situation would be to team up with or work for an experienced rehabber. Easier said than done, I know. But think long and hard before spending the money.

:cool:

Originally posted by Anthea S.:

the lowest I've seen it was $1197, I want to make sure that it is worth every penny because that is a big investment....

Before you spend $1197 on a guru’s book, ask yourself what you expect it to do for you. What would make it worth the money? Could you get the same information with a couple of $20 books and participating on the forums here?

:cool:

Originally posted by Heidi Arndt:

Great posts!

I'm in the process of selling a new bulk condo deal in Las Vegas myself.

Heidi, you do realize that this thread is 3 years old , right?

It is interesting to look back. In the original post the median home price was stated as $275,000 - it is now $120,000. The median home price had fallen every single month since that original post - until December of 2009. December marked the first increase in 39 months.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/feb/23/report-las-vegas-home-prices-breaking-39-month-tre/

It is fun to see how far we've come in the last three years.

:cool:

Originally posted by Pam Marcum:

IRS' incompetence.

That pretty much says it all. Land contracts qualify and I believe I saw that on the IRS website. Perhaps they deem the 1098 to be proof that a real land contract does exist.

Remember, this is one of the 'great lies' - "I'm from the government and I'm here to help!"

:cool:

The 1098 shouldn't have anything to do with the homebuyer's tax credit. They should be able to prove the purchase by contract or title transfer, HUD1, etc. If they paid cash there wouldn't be a 1098 but they would still be eligible for the credit.

Am I missing something because it's a land contract?

:cool:

After the last extension they made it pretty clear that it would not be extended. At some point they need to let the market stand on its own. I do not expect another extension.

:cool:

For ARV we’ll assume your low number â€" $375k
For repairs we’ll assume your high number - $120k

(ARV X 70%) â€" Repairs = Maximum Price

(375k x 70%) - $120k = Maximum Price

$262,500 - $120,000 = $142,500 maximum price

Using your best numbers:
(425k x 70%) - $100k = maximum price

297,500 – 100,000 = 197,500

Using your average number:
(400k x 70%) – 110k = maximum price

$280,000 – 110,000 = $170,000 maximum price

Based on the asking price this only works if your best numbers are the real ones. Chances are they are too optimistic. I would be more inclined to go with the lowest number. If you are looking to wholesale this you had better expect the low number. Maximum price is what a rehabber would pay, it doesn’t include your fee.

:cool: