All Forum Posts by: Ray R.

SEO is a VERY DANGEROUS way to rely on to power your business. You are relying on Google to not change the rules.

And Google is CONSTANTLY CHANGING THE RULES. Penguin, Panda (7 updates so far), Hummingbird, and Pigeon are names that have killed many businesses that relied 100% on SEO for traffic. It takes a LOT OF WORK to keep up to date on the latest SEO changes. There are so many so called SEO Gurus, that charge major $, that don't know what they are talking about.

Google takes the top 3 positions for Paid Traffic. And many people don't even realize that is a mostly a pay to play position. Google pays their bills with paid advertising, and wants everyone to pay the Google Tax. FB is also a pay to play ecosystem.

Having a Funnel, and doing lots of remarketing to get a conversion is key. A/B Testing is a key part of this strategy to see what works best. Conversion is the final goal, and to get there takes a lot of work.

Coding is just a tool, and the question to consider, what is the best, most valuable use of your time. If it's playing $20 an hour coder for work you can outsource or use a third part site for, OK. Sometimes do to cash flow this is a necessity.The goal of any business owner should be focusing on the $100 or even $1,000 an hour work, and delegate the lower value work to others. Time is such a precious commodity.

Peter Drucker Question:
- Are you doing the right work?

Foundation Drucker Questions:
- Who is your customer?
- What does your customer value?
- What can you provide that your customer values?
- How do you measure this?

I ran my own eCommerce business for almost 20 years and it was a huge learning experience, as well as working doing E commerce Marketing for Fortune 500 reseller.

Updated and Reposting, since the last one came out as part of a quote.

These are just my observations and guesses, I am not saying if I favor them.

Summary: CoronaVirus's Impact has LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY, and will impact to the US economy.

1. China trade you are going to see impacts on businesses in So Ca that rely on imports within another month
2. High tech is already getting hit, since they use Air for delivery. They will move assembly out of China, but it takes time.
3. Lower tech items can be moved for manufacturing
4. Stuff like toaster overs, coffee makers, etc.
5. LOTS of Chinese businesses in CA are relying on imports from China
6. Lots of businesses in the China Tourism market in CA. That is dead right now.
7. Lots of medicines, or their components, are made in China. Expect shortages of medicines in the near future.
8. Lots of items in the hospital are made in China. Expect shortages in the near term.

Gut feel is a lot of houses bought by Chinese in the So. CA area, was bought with cash, so not overly leveraged. A Chinese tradition, is putting the house in the wife's name. Just in case the husband does something dumb financially. I expect there will be less demand by Chinese buyers.

On the institutional side, I expect some sales of Chinese real estate investments in the US.

I expect CA is going to get hit more on the unemployment side, as a side effect due to all the items that were sourced from China.

I expect in 12 months when a vaccine gets produced, the economy will get back to normal.

Unknowns is if CoronaVirus spreads to other countries. In the 1918 pandemic, 50-60 Million people world wide died.

Testing for the CoronaVirus currently seems not very reliable, and expensive. I was surprised that per the WJS, Hawaii, has ZERO Test Kits.

Why Does the U.S. Have So Few Confirmed Coronavirus Cases?

WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-does-the-u-s-have-so-few-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-11582241112

On the Racial Side, I don't expect many issues. The US has changed so much even in my lifetime.

Summary

- I expect this will start hitting the housing market and commercial in about 3 months. There will be an increase in warehouse availability, especially in City of Industry. There are a lot of businesses that import from China, and then resell on Amazon located in So. CA. These businesses will have major problems.

The positive, is a lot of Manufacturing will be moving back to the US and Mexico. This was started by Trump's tariffs, and this will turn into a flood. I don't know what impact the original NAFTA had on the real estate market.

I also expect higher wages, due to decreased immigration (building of the wall). States that require E-Verify have already seen a decrease in their unemployment rate.

Impact of this financial crisis on the US economy, and the US Presidential Election are unknown. Betting markets seem to favor Trump for re election, but what if their is a global economy crises due to CoronaVirus? And what impact will this have on elections for the house? And I am very unsure about what the impact will be in the Los Angeles and surrounding areas.

Lots of fortune 500 businesses are over leveraged, doing stock buy backs, and the stock valuations are at an all time high, with super low interest rates.

Fracking is having a huge positive impact to the US economy.

Stuff I am pondering, as I working through what advice / recommendations to give the investors I am associated with.

For the LA Market, here is another analysis from the LA Times, interesting what is not included such as Rent Control, AB 5 independent contractor Law, and businesses fleeing CA easier places to do business in.

Economic growth slowing in LA and California: report - Los Angeles Times
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-02-20/la-fi-los-angeles-california-economy-forecast

I live in Rowland Heights (very Chinese Area), married to a Taiwanese, so I notice things the usual Real Estate Investor in So. Ca would not.

@Andrey Y.

Fact - Lots still not known about the impact of CoronaVirus, both on the medical side, and on the economic side.

It's now 156 cases in Korea.

https://www.zerohedge.com/heal...

Taiwan at the same time as the 25 cases in Korea, was at 22 cases, and is now at 24 cases.

 I am just observing what they are doing. So far the actions Taiwan has done seem to be effective. Korea and Japan are worrisome. I am not Taiwanese, so it's not my VP.

China's impact I am worried about. They have 760 million people basically locked down, and their economy at a stop. They are 12.5% of global trade. I don't understand what is going on in China, and their actions worry me. Why are they taking these actions, if it's not so serious?

@Nick Gann I think it's more about keeping in charge, and the leadership sees control as a necessity to keep being in charge.

>It's worth understanding that China is a country obsessed with control.

There is a lot of image control going on in China right now fighting CoronaVirus, that look good on CoronaVirus, but have little practical benefit. For example that Hospital that got built in 3 days, from what I read, it leaked, and there were issues staffing it. Potemkin Village comes to mind. A scene that surprised me in American Factory, was in the company museum they had pictures of all the Chinese Presidents. Recent ones were in Western Dress, till the current one was in a Mao Dress. 

Questions I want better data on from China:

- What is the real death rate?

- Who is being infected?

- How fast does it spread?

- Who is dieing? Is it only the old, or ?

- What is the real infection rate?

There is still a HUGE amount of questions on CoronaVirus.

The problem with number of cases, is the technology / testing kits are just being released. Since it's a new decease, diagnosing it seems to have issues. They are being worked out, but there is still a lot we don't know.

I was curious on the difference between this and SARS. SARS become infectious after the person became sick, so once effective quarantine was done, the disease was quickly stopped. Mortality Rate for SARS was around 10%.  MERS (out of Saudi Arabia, so avoid Camels if you are in the area) was 34% mortality rate.

CoronaVirus seems to be a lot easier to spread, if you believe the Chinese numbers, the mortality rate is 2.1% or so. Supposedly it's only mostly hitting elder adults, that mostly have other health issues.

This is the best write up I have found so far, more Scientific, but from Feb. 14th.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/20...

Good Conclusion from the article:

Updated WUWT conclusions

Is Wuhan a serious public health concern? Yes.

Is Wuhan a serious pandemic threat? Not yet.

If containment mainly to China via travel restrictions and 14-day quarantine can be enforced, it is probably not a pandemic threat ever to North America or Western Europe or Australia. Africa and Southeast Asia outside China, Japan, and Singapore need careful watching. And as with 2009 Swine flu, South America will be hit or miss.

Is 14-day quarantine effective? Yes.

Is a vaccine on the horizon? No.

Is a drug therapy on the horizon? Yes.

@Andrey Y. Taiwan is taking a huge amount of measures against CoronaVirus. Their Vice President was in charge of their SARS response. They are being very careful about whom they let in from China. If you are not a Taiwanese citizen, such as a child that chose Chinese Citizenship, they are not being allowed in.  Taiwan did not start their K-12 schools till they had enough masks for all kids, plus temperature testing equipment.  Taiwan News, at least the one my wife watches, is covering CoronaVirus left and right.

From what I have read, their measures seem to be the most effective.

@Troy Williams

Assuming the numbers are true...

From Barrons 'China’s Coronavirus Figures Don’t Add Up. ‘This Never Happens With Real Data.’

https://www.barrons.com/articl...

>95% of the deaths have occurred in only one district and still far less damage than the normal influenza virus.

@Marcus Auerbach - China also has the common flu with a death rates of around 84,000. Usually about .05% of the people who get the flue, die from it. Coronavirus, the death rate is supposedly 2.2% in China, but there is a lot of doubt on the Chinese Numbers, It may be a lot higher. High pollution and smoking may make people more susceptible in China. 

China is acting very unusual, and is basically destroying their economy with the massive quaranteen they are doing. Currently China has 40 Million people under quarantine in 80 cities. This may be a Black Swan Event.

There are three areas of the US Economy that will probably be hit by China's economic recession.

- Tourism

- Farm Exports

- Imports from China, there are many businesses that rely on China as part of their supply chain. And it will take time to move the production, or find other suppliers. Everything is Just In Time, with low inventories.

The economic impact may be similar to what happened in the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, plus a bit of SARS from 2003, in a US Presidential Election Year!

A Vaccine, unless a miracle happens (good possibility of this due to advances in technology) looks to be 12-18 months away.

There may also be drugs, such as the AIDS Cocktail, that may reduce the death rate.

There are still lots of unknowns, and China is massaging the data on the death and infection rate and still not allowing CDC to visit China to gather information.

The travel ban from China to the US, plus the 14 day quarantine, seems to have helped a lot to keep the US infection rate low.

The question for the US economy, is what impact will the CoronaVirus have on other countries economies? Will it be similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic, where over 586,000 died in the US?  The mortality rate was between 10-20%, and an estimated 3-6% of the entire world population died.

@Santos Ricardo Tellez - SWAG is Super Wild *ss Guesses - so what I wrote was a combination of from what I read, some analysis, and some translations from Taiwan TV via my wife (born in Taiwan. Taiwan TV is talking non stop about the CoronVirus. Taiwan is an island right next to China, has huge investments in China, probably 10% of their population was working in China, and has a different government (Democratically Elected) than China (Communist).

 I am very interested in this due to the potential impact on the apartments I help manage, and potential investment opportunities. Writing this helps me understand what is going on better. International and US Political Analysis is a hobby / interest of mine.

1. Why is the actions of China different than the official information? Basically look at their actions, verses official statements. The official statements basically say CoronaVirus is like just a bad cold, actions include basically shutting down the Chinese economy after the 2 week holiday for the Chinese New Year. They have shut down a major area of China, not allowing movement of Millions of people. China is now using the language they are in a War with the CoronaVirus, and they are calling in their military to deal with it. The Military in China is perceived as an organization that is seen being the most effective, and has the least corruption.

2. What is the real number of deaths in China? The death and infection rate being released in China being massaged. It's a straight line (in the real world, data is messy), where it should be more of an exponential growth rate based on historical rates.

3. What is the true death percentage in China?

4. Will other countries have the same death rate as China?

5. How easy does the Coronavirus Spread?

6. Will an increase of temperatures (as Winter ends), reduce the rate of the spread?

7. Will the US due to a difference in sanitation infrastructure, healthcare, and quarantine escape the impact of the Coronavirus? Or will it impact certain populations in the US with poor sanitation? I'm thinking of the large amount of homeless in many West Coast Cities, that have caused major sanitation issues. San Fransisco for example has a poop map application...

8. Lots of items are sourced from China, including medicines and other pharmaceuticals. What impact will a shutdown of the Chinese economy have on the US? On medical care?

9. How quickly can alternate sources ramp up for products currently made in China for the US export market?

10. What impact will a slowing of the Chinese economy have on the rest of the world?

11. Will Chinese owners in the US sell their property, due to business failures in China? What impact will this have in areas with a high percentage of Chinese buyers in the US?

12. What impact will this have on decoupling the US economy and China. Due to the China Tariffs, a lot of companies exporting to the US were moving out of China to other countries such as Vietnam, etc. Personal Observation - Kirkland Brand Blue Jeans I buy from Costco were made in Mexico, then moved to China, and now are made in Madagascar.

13. With the new NAFTA, what impact will this have on US property markets geographically?

14. China has been doing huge investments in Africa. What impact will the Coronavirus have on this?

15. What impact will the Coronavirus have on areas that depend on Tourism? 

MY SOURCES:

SHORT VERSION ON CHINA:
Information out of China on the CoronaVirus Can't be Trusted, so there is a huge amount of unknowns.

LONGER VERSION ON CHINA:

The challenge is China press is controlled by the government, and the goal of the government is to keep power. So information out of China through official channels, has the purpose of keeping the government in power. And Western Media, if they want to be allowed to report from within China, needs to keep the Chinese Government happy. This means Western Media needs to be CAREFUL on what they report, or they may get banned from reporting within China, and any ventures they have in China, may develop government issues. And the Chinese Government has a history of using their power, against Western Companies, such as market access, to reward and punish behavior. Because of the lack of Coronavirus outside of China, there is a huge lack of good information. Lots of talking heads who don't know what they are talking about.

PERSONAL OBSERVATION:

I live in So CA in a area with a large Chinese population, so it's interesting to see how many people in a Chinese Bank are wearing face masks. Last week it was one teller, this week it's half the staff. I don't watch TV, so I have no idea on the US coverage. I am also seeing a lot more warehouses for rent in my area. I saw a person, non Asian, at a Costco wearing a face mask in Moreno Valley. The tenants I spoke recently, seem very area of CoronaVirus. 

OTHER SOURCES:

Per Taiwan TV, China has locked down 80 Cities. Meaning people are not allowed to leave.

The blog I have found most informative is https://raconteurreport.blogsp... The person works in an Emergency Room, and had the best analysis of Ebola I saw at the time.

ZeroHedge has some good coverage more on the economic front, but you need to take what their articles with a large grain of salt. Some is really good, and other is way out there...

https://bayourenaissanceman.bl... had an article with a link to CNBC, NY Times, etc. that had some good info. The author is from Africa, so has grew up in a culture with a different view of death and has seen a lot of the third world in Africa in his travels, and has seen a lot more disease than the normal US person.

John Ringo, Sci Fi Author with a background in Bio, commented that the US had zero death from the SARS Virus. Other countries had a lot more deaths. One of his Sci Fi books had a back story of a Plague out of China - Centurion.

Leslie Eastman of Legal Insurrection is covering the Coronavirus, and has solid information, but she is very careful on what she writes. I was lucky enough to meet her in person recently, and I was impressed by her knowledge. She has a Masters in Biology. https://legalinsurrection.com/... One of her recent posts mentioned the US Military is setting up 11 quarantine camps next to major airports. 

WHO - From what I read, information out of WHO (World Health Organization) is not useful. The Director General is from Ethiopia, and got his job with backing from China and Africa. China has huge investments in Africa. WHO was against a travel ban from China. WHO is not allowing Taiwan access, due to politics. Bottom line - heavily politicized.

CDC - Raconteur Blog does not have kind things to say about them.