@Chris Martin - first off, love your in-depth analysis (and your analogy - ha!)
There are key things I agree:
- "Fish in a crowded favorite spot" analogy = Absolutely. As an investor, you have to stay on top of market trends and be agile. This not only applies to RE investing but applies to any investing.
- Every investor has a spectrum of risk appetite = I agree you sticking to your own discipline and wait to play the game on your terms. You have to stick with your strategy and what you're comfortable with. It may not be the case with everyone else, but you need to stick by your strategy.
- "Raleigh and central NC is a great place to invest. The market is stable and returns mirror inflation. But timing is everything" = Absolutely. There's still room for growth in this locale and I think more and more investors are looking in this market - which makes sense to me. Only time will tell - in the meantime, numbers don't lie.
I do want to brainstorm a bit on some other key points you've mentioned:
- Opportunity cost being too high = I get where you're coming from. Saturated market, high RE prices, etc., leads to lower yields to investors and they may have better opportunities investing elsewhere/another investment vehicle. Say, for example, an investor chose to go with the stock market with an avg 7-10% return annualized - they could potentially be getting a better deal than investing in RE - yes. But if you look at the total ROI (tax savings, appreciation, tax shelter strategies, recession-proof investment, etc.) - even with the deal returning lower than 7-10%, in the end, may come out in an investor's favor. Now, there are many other variables to consider (eviction moratorium, government regulations overall, etc.), so you really gotta look at the overall risk appetite you have as an investor. Thoughts?
- "Game is over in the Residential RE investing in this area" = I'd like to play devil's advocate and ask - if it's over here (in your opinion), wouldn't most other states be on par as well? There are markets across the country that fare "worse" than NC from market trends (think Arizona, Texas, Colorado, etc.) from an investor perspective. Prices can work both ways as well - infinity (and beyond) can work in upward swing OR downward, and there's no way to predict the future - so be it. I still do see plenty of opportunities if you craft your strategy appropriately. From my observations, I see many investors actually shift their strategy from residential multi-family (2-4) to SFH's. Some are faring quite well surprisingly enough. Ultimately, if the numbers make sense (for an individual/group), I don't see why not pull the trigger. Thoughts?