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All Forum Posts by: Paul Azad

Paul Azad has started 4 posts and replied 136 times.

"Which again, people should later ask how such happens in a "free market system".... How does coordinated events on such scale happen? Group think.... really... At some point people gotta start admitting what's right in front of everyone's face. Watch this week and then tell me how "non-political" it all is......."

James, I don't know if the large market movements/rotation need a "coordinated" explanation. My buddy is at a hedge fund and the same Greed/Fear that drive a retail investor often drive his decisions too. He describes it like a big game of musical chairs with having to be in positions which are winning because his competition is in those positions and then try to guess when to get out before everyone is trying to get out at the same time so as not to be left without a "chair" or taking the loss. 

Friday, unemployment data/PMI data shocked the market a bit, when just 2 days earlier Jerome Powell said the labor market "was normalizing". Then last night Asian markets digested that their largest export market (USA) may be slipping into Recession, so Nikkei _Japan down 13% worst loss in a day since 10/1987, Korea/Thai etc all down big, so now SP500/Nasdaq/Russel/Bitcoin/Ethe all down big as they digest the near term risks, price in higher risk of recession/unwind the Japanese Yen carry trade/rotate from over-valued AI stocks with no near term profitability/Buffet dumping Apple/BOFA etc/and digest domestic politics ( I agree with you that Dems have low chance of winning, whoever runs, due to low turnout from bad economy/inflation damage) but no "coordination" is really necessary to explain the market movements.

Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @V.G Jason:

Demand will pick up as rates retrace. That'll negate the supply. The reason prices went up in 2023 YOY is because supply was lowered even more than demand was crushed(via rates).

We'll see a smaller YOY, but not a "rapid decline". Fundamentally, Russell is right. Couple that with the lack of home building post GR and that's made a 1+1 combo equal 5.


also in last 60 days, there're bunch of SFR funds liquidating their houses unsure why, but this month the top secret narrative that everyone already know is we are in GFC 2008 situation in CRE fantasy-land ; so it seems lot of funds in trouble and there're lot of redemption request from investors, maybe it's forced selling of the good performance asset to help recover the bad asset.
 
2024 is extremely interesting Jason, there're lot of factors that keep driving the dynamic of single family, and it's not employment per-se.

I know some funds that are liquidating single family to bid into CRE, there's also some funds that are divesting their real estate exposure and putting it more into other cyclical things(like oil & preparing for bitcoin) these are more macro funds not REI funds.

CRE opportunities have turned into CLO. The bitcoin strategy (short term) has been magnificent. Oil is going to be the most interesting at this point.

Oil is going to get worse, because it will get better.... 

I can feel people saying "but drill-baby-drill".... Yeah, exactly. What does more supply do? Increase profits, no. It drops market price. 

And it's been indicated that to resolve geopolitics of E.European situation, hit em where it hurts, ppb, as in pump market supply, crash ppb, eviscerate RU oil revenue, leverage to end a war. 

So I suggest people DON't run out and start acquiring oil stocks at random, it's a complex situation. 

If one want's a safer place to play in that arena I'd suggest to follow the Oracle of Omaha and look into the transportation leg of O&G, more volume = more transport = more revenue = more profits. 


100% correct, but wasn't expecting someone on an REI forum to come at energy like this. Let me correct myself-- energy is going to be most interesting thing at this point.

The reliability, acquisition, and demand. 


A step further; If I see that D.T. is certain, real -world certain to win, I'm going to be going so DEEPppppp into NG position and options it's gonna be butt puckering. Were talking I'm mulling going long options in 7 figure ratios, I am that certain. 

How do ya end a war with an O&G baron invading a nation? Ya remove the demand. 

USA has the ability, now today, to supply 100% of Europe's gas needs. I think it starts there because it can be done via executive order in 1hr. I think this is what D.T. has eluded to. 

Imagine he did that, started shipping 100% match to RU supply. How much would Putines butt pucker. 

Cause after that could open oil taps and let that flow. Collapsing RU econ in 30 days or less. There market would crash same day. I doubt Putin would survive the month. 

All because someone had the ballz to do it. 

Point is, I agree, I think it's gonna be boom time of net export in a BIG way.


There's still over 3 months to the election, and a possible nominee swap on the Democratic side. While I do believe 2024 will be a red wave, and have stated so before, I'm only putting positions post Labor Day or as early as after the DNC.

The energy play from DJT won't just be a source of war-reckoning in Russia and even Israel, it'll be the biggest game changer in the arms race of AI and how to support it. It'll calm any nerve China has about attacking Taiwan, and may even lead any notion of that threat falling adrift. You bet if we get a second term with Biden, if he remains, the chances of China tapping on Taiwan's door is imminent. 

There's more than one trade to put on. Right now, as I said in an another thread months ago, once the rate cut is near the small cap: large cap ratio will tighten. The next trades are oil producers, defense stocks, and mega cap tech after their reckoning. 

Energy will be the most weaponized and in demand area for the rest of our lives.


 And here we go....the start of the fall from earnings. Doubt it gets better for Q3 earnings, the rate cut is priced in. The elections are going to be pivotal, but the lid is off things are going to star trading under Q2, if they are not already, shortly and you'll have resistance until  folks see Q3 earnings. If they are even remotely like we have seen, we got quite a drop in front of us.

Kamala has tremendous momentum, but again nothing until post labor day. Too much week to week change. The one thing I can say is a safe bet is getting long BTC. 

Rather than admiring the problem like others have stated. This is what I am doing. 

I've been long small cap ETFs and specific small cap stocks, long BTC, long platinum, long gold, long BDCs, long fixed rate debt(sub 2 year) and long puts against mega-cap. I'm going to unload the gold progressively, the fixed rate debt, and BDCs into mega cap stocks, large cap stocks, and options among both areas. Probably a small % growing into a larger % into years end peaking in Oct24. 


 Are you concerned that if last 2 weeks turn into a risk off market downturn like 2022 and 2020, that BTC will drop as it did both those times as it is still one of the most risky of Risk On Assets? And if we are sliding into recession not just a soft landing, that Small Caps/commodities-minerals/BDCs (with falling net interest margins as 10yr falls and rising defaults) may all be a dangerous place to be? 

10 yr down 70bips in 4 weeks, 20 just today, and if Sahm rule violation/longest inverted yield curve ever/and M2 - 4% drawdown all have >95% correlations each with near term Recessions, then maybe long bonds may be safest place to be for a while. I've been buying EDV heavy for last 10 months whenever 10yr above 4.5%

forward PE 16 on sp500 puts fair value SP at about 3800, so could be really bad for still frothy MAG7, so your MAG7 puts should really perform

Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Ameet Mehta:

Hey Nina Sid! I know a good commercial real estate syndication group, they go by the name of Elevate Commercial Investment Group. They recently orchestrated a remarkable syndication deal and bagged 110% AAR in just under 13 months, which I don’t need to tell you is massive. So you should definitely check them out, maybe get in a conversation to understand their monthly returns for long-term projects. They know what they are doing and I have worked with them previously so I can vouch for their genuinity.


 Is it this company?



Texas syndicator Elevate drives another Arbor foreclosure (therealdeal.com)


 Chris, you are a scholar and a ninja assassin. You do the most damage with the least exertion, beautiful, ....yeah Elevate owns some of the worst properties in the worst parts of town here in Houston. Their "Selena" which is foreclosed by Arbor is in east houston near ship channel and definitely in "theHood", their "Sophia" is in Greenspoint aka "Guns-point" and you can't get food delivered there without a police escort. The company has properties all over the place from South Dakota to Florida to Oklahoma, so good luck to any investors. 

Post: Investing as a doctor

Paul AzadPosted
  • Posts 136
  • Votes 199
Quote from @Mohammad Khudirat:
Quote from @Paul Azad:

Start with Jim Dahle's "white coat investor" website and Youtube channel and Reddit subthreads. He has tons on real estate investing. with a strong emphasis on tax minimization and asset protection.

You can own real estate directly, which is active ownership, or indirectly, which is passive ownership.

Owning it directly and actively can give you very high returns with the Leverage involved but requires quite a lot of work, quite a lot of your time, and quite a lot of your personal liability. So do your research, but also consider passive investing Visa V syndications or even equity reits, Which have historically outperformed the S and P 500 over 20, 30, fifty years and even outperformed direct, active ownership of real estate by 4 to 6 per cent. Passive real estate investing still requires enormous amounts of due diligence and monitoring. But you eliminate the liability risk from the equation. 

Good luck. And pay off those student loans as quick as you can. before they eat you up.


 Thanks for the suggestions Paul! Thankfully I don't have any student loans, so I'll be able to utilize my income to its full potential. Any advice on getting into equity reits?


I like these amongst ,many other right now

REXR - (Rexford) they are a niche (sub-specialist) in industrial warehouse/distribution/manufacturing in the southern California only urban or Infil area, they are not international like PLD - prologis, their MOAT is that SO-Cal has geographic limitation to new inventory, so they have rent pricing power that industrial in rest of country doesn't, also 26 million people in so-Cal and the 2 busiest Ports in country, their earning/revenue projections next few years are best in class, and they are cheaper on price to book than PLD or others, I own some and will buy a lot more in upcoming Recession, likely in next 6-12 months, when publicly traded equities will likely slide by 20-30% although their assets (physical buildings) are only going up in value

VICI- (casino REIT), used to be part of Cesars palace, then Caesars spun them out in 2018, to do sale leasebacks of their properties to take all that physical capex off the books. They are growing, they bought MGM, Venetian, a slew of bowling alleys, and many small casinos. They are cheap, and will get cheaper in coming recession, as tourism to Vegas will decline, and they have superior growth and great management, that know what they are actually doing

ADC -(Agree Realty), they do what I do privately, but on a bigger scale, run by Joey Agree , very smart, they have excellent growth, multi-tenant, triple net retail, and grocery anchored Retail, they will benefit from massive secular tailwinds, as there has been under construction in retail for years, due to fear of E-commerce, higher construction costs/insurance costs, post GFC under financing-construction, etc, so existing inventory is commanding higher rents, we are bumping new leases by 7-11%, they will get this endogenous earnings growth for years

these should perform well over next 10 years, never buy anything in Real Estate for less than 10 years, to allow to go through cycles, and if you can buy in 401k/IRA so dividends can be re-invested tax free

good luck, you have to monitor your E-REITS like you would any other stock, closely, as they move with sentiment not just on NAV like private Real estate, so you can't just dose em w 200mg of propofol and walk away, not that you'd ever do that :)

good luck


1. 'Investing in Real Estate Private Equity' by Sean Cook is a great intro level book, that assumes you know nothing about the syndication space but it doesn't treat you like an idiot either, it takes you along and educates you

2. higher level is "CRE analysis and investments" , a textbook by Geltner et al. which I loved, breaks down all aspects of CRE, how to underwrite etc.

3. lots of online stuff helpful too, like The Real Estate Syndication Show, recent episode below

Over 100 Passive Investments and Lessons Learned with Joe Fairless (youtube.com)

4. For information about the legal implications of syndication investing and structures. look at Mauricio Rauld, a recent video:

How to Become an Accredited Investor | Updated 2024 (youtube.com)

5. an obviously read all the threads on the BP thread for syndication investing under forums/real estate strategies/ syndications etc

good luck


Post: Investing as a doctor

Paul AzadPosted
  • Posts 136
  • Votes 199

Start with Jim Dahle's "white coat investor" website and Youtube channel and Reddit subthreads. He has tons on real estate investing. with a strong emphasis on tax minimization and asset protection.

You can own real estate directly, which is active ownership, or indirectly, which is passive ownership.

Owning it directly and actively can give you very high returns with the Leverage involved but requires quite a lot of work, quite a lot of your time, and quite a lot of your personal liability. So do your research, but also consider passive investing Visa V syndications or even equity reits, Which have historically outperformed the S and P 500 over 20, 30, fifty years and even outperformed direct, active ownership of real estate by 4 to 6 per cent. Passive real estate investing still requires enormous amounts of due diligence and monitoring. But you eliminate the liability risk from the equation. 

Good luck. And pay off those student loans as quick as you can. before they eat you up.

I doubt that the vast majority of the investors in Norada Capital Management's unsecured promissory notes were intending to invest in an illegal Ponzi scheme. But that is precisely what the company appears to be, or to be more precise, a feeder fund to the larger Ponzi scheme, which was Retail E commerce Ventures run by Tai Lopez and Alex Mehr, who, if you go to Norada Capital Management's website this very moment under team, is still listed as the number two advisor underneath Marco Santarelli. Mr. Alex Mehr, the owner and cofounder of REV which bilked investors out of $270,000,000 just a year and a half ago and discontinued distributions in November of 2022 and is now under SEC investigation and multiple lawsuits, and was paying 25% promissory notes with a business plan of online retail from a dozen bankrupt old brands despite having little to nothing listed for sale on the websites (the same dozen listed in same order on Norada site) to Norada Capital Management which then paid out 12 to 16% promissory notes to the unsuspecting investors here on BP above and in other threads. REV made 150mil in 2021, 60 mil in 2022, but lost 60mil in 2022 in expenses and had 200mil in debt before folding in 11/22. (it was never a legit business nor any intention of being one, think AMWAY/Herbalife) Norada still fundraising this minute on website and Marco pitching his promissory notes just 4 weeks ago on a webinar saying only 75% E-commerce, but the growth is in Off Broadway musicals....WTF!!!. All Ponzis keep running until they run out of investor inflows, never before. 

It is not whining for BP members to complain about a complete loss of capital and a former BP Darling Marco the turn-key real estate expert from going RadioShack-silent for a month. It is the least they can do to warn other potential investors who Marco is literally still apparently preying upon this very moment. 

Or maybe I'm way off base and the modern day Einsteins of Marco/Alex, and Tai were going to defeat low-cost on-line shops like Amazon/Wal-Mart and TEMU. Remember, those dozen bankrupt companies had already failed online once, hence they went bankrupt already. Their intentions seem clear ad Incipio.

Would have some concern, given their very rosy projections of NOI growth even in year one from 3 million to 3.4 million ,13%. however, Yardi data shows Atlanta rents are actually negative so far this year, by -.1%.

Also, some concern on the $5.3 million in transaction cost to acquire the property approximately 9% of the deal, obviously there won't be any money set aside for renovations given that the property is only a few months old, so this is all frictional cost to the investor. 

Also, would have some concern that they say replacement cost of this property is 50% higher than their buying it for. This property was just constructed a few months ago?  

Also, they're buying it just over a 5% ( noi 3 / 58) cap rate and planned to sell three years later at the same 5% cap rate, with the largest influx of new Class A multifamily to the Atlanta area ever in the next three years to compete against this Class A property, which should only continue to drive down rents or prevent NOI growth at the least.

Real Estate Is just a term? that describes the medium or the mechanism of the true underlying investing action. Real estate is just the wrapper around the actual thing you're doing which is Banking. IE capital allocation and leverage.

Without the leverage, real estate investing is actually not a particularly good investment. Take a look at the study from Amsterdam. by Piet Eichholtz 
Eichholtz_A-long-run-house-price-index.pdf (maastrichtrealestate.com)

basically a nearly 400 year study of the prices of the same homes along the best canals in Amsterdam since 1628, and the prices rose at about 2-3% or the historic rate of inflation there, same study has been retroactively and proactively studied in almost all countries on Earth and they all get same answers over long term, (Re rises with inflation rate) Now you can have short term bubbles like now in USA, but they usually deflate like the 22% drop from 1929-1935 or the 34% drop from 2006 to 2012, which many of us benefitted from. I guarantee it will deflate again, as it always has in past, or at least go flat for 10-20 years until incomes catch up. Why, because you need people to buy those houses, and people's incomes only rise at the rate of inflation. 

But imagine you don't pay cash but rather borrow so your 5k cash/closing-down payment to buy a 100k STR, then in year 1 it rises 2k - only a paltry 2%, but you make a 40% profit as you are levered 20:1, and that beats the best year for stocks ever.

So real estate is not actually about "real estate". It's about banking just like almost all businesses. You could be drop shipping from an Amazon warehouse business using leveraged inventory and doing the exact same thing or borrowing billions to buy NVIDIA GPU's to retrofit and add on to your own servers like my favorite business does, SMCI. Most businesses are about banking, but they have different wrappers around them. Good luck. 

Post: national rent control

Paul AzadPosted
  • Posts 136
  • Votes 199

Biden just pandering for votes, this is pertinent excerpt from the White house press release

FACT SHEET: President Biden Announces Major New Actions to Lower Housing Costs by Limiting Rent Increases and Building More Homes | The White House


"President Biden is calling on Congress to pass legislation presenting corporate landlords with a basic choice: either cap rent increases on existing units to no more than 5% or lose valuable federal tax breaks. Under President Biden’s plan, corporate landlords, beginning this year and for the next two years, would only be able to take advantage of faster depreciation write-offs available to owners of rental housing if they keep annual rent increases to no more than 5% each year. This would apply to landlords with over 50 units in their portfolio, covering more than 20 million units across the country. It would include an exception for new construction and substantial renovation or rehabilitation. The policy is a bridge to rents stabilizing as President Biden’s plan to build more takes hold."

basically, he is as pretending to ask a Republican Congress to pass a bill that would tell all investors no accelerated depreciation unless you cap rents at 5%/yr, obviously would never be taken up by congress and could never get 67 votes in Senate either, so just a PR stunt for votes Shortly before an election. It is a sign of his political desperation at this point down 10pts in multiple polls. We should likely expect more like this to come. 

I've studied Rent Control, which is just a subtype of Nixonian Price Controls, and they are always a bad idea, they always produce the opposite of the intended outcome, with run down "slums" as they are unprofitable to maintain at submarket rents, If you read the whole letter, Biden actually has a better idea later down, which is a massive govt' push at fed and state level to increase production of new housing stock at all levels, using tax breaks, incentives to developers, thus eventually lowering rents or at least slowing rise to let incomes catch up. When you study this area in economic texts and in academic papers, there is quite a lot of govt intervention on behalf of all sides (tax code isn't 12,000 pages for no reason and it usually isn't helping the renters)

Let The free market act as it normally does, there are more multifamily units coming online this year and next year than ever before in US history, despite rising insurance and property taxes and construction and labor costs, as the potential for profit is too juicy to ignore, but The developers and investors also bear the risk of loss. So they should be justly and appropriately compensated. A free market is a system of gains and losses. Whenever we subsidize either one, we tilt the system out of balance.