@Royce Talbo
Thanks for the input!
Our unit in Wahiawa (1bed) rented in a few days, but we only had 5 applicants. We usually have 10+. We had it listed at $950, which is definitely at the bottom of the range for the area. The reasoning for the low rent is for another day. :)
We have a client who just listed (August) a single family home for $2580 in Mililani Town (3bed/2 bath/garage). Had a few applicants and filled the vacancy in about a week. At the time, the rent was in the 75th percentile of all listings. Not sure where rents are now.
$2200 seems like a reasonable price for Mililani Town (except for maybe Nob Hill, which might be a little lower). I'll be shocked if you don't get someone soon at $2000.
I just took a quick look and saw two posts with "Price Reduced" and First Month Free", within the first 10 or so postings. It's been a while since I've seen those. Interesting.
Well, I am still optimistic on Oahu. Investors will just have to be (or have someone who is) smart and conservative in their number crunching. The market over the past few years has been very forgiving towards those whose analysis may have been less than perfect. It may be time to tighten up the due diligence on new acquisitions and portfolio management, as the market might be more punishing in the years to come. It's always good to practice sound investment strategies, but in the current cycle it's been tempting to be a little riskier and bite off a little more.
@Andrey Y.
Thanks for the input!
I believe you are correct. New troops (arriving in Hawaii after Jan 2017) have a lower BAH than those who were already here (current troops BAH remained unchanged). I don't know how many troops that is, but long story short, I'd imagine it's about 10k troops. A $250 drop in BAH for 10k troops could have a noticeable affect. If the current BAH remains at this new level, then in about 3 years all Hawaii troops will be at this reduced amount. But I guess we'll see in January when the new BAH allotments are announced.
Overall, I am not too concerned. We'll have to give it another 6 months or so to see a trend. It's hard to identify causality after just a few months. But it definitely seems to be island-wide and it definitely seems to have started around March. Hopefully other Hawaii investors will chime in as the year goes on.
On the bright side, the people of Hawaii (renters) are getting a chance to catch their breath financially.