Quote from @James Nicholson:
@Collin Hays - that's precisely the concern I have. Is Disney going to turn into the next Bud Light for large segments of the population? If so, then this may not be such a temporary downturn. But on the other hand, the Disney brand and experience are so strong that it seems like they would be able to withstand this and make adjustments.
Hard to invest in a market with these uncertainties.
Disney has always been at the forefront of inclusion, diversity, hope. That is essentially their brand. It's not anything new. The people complaining about it now are the same type that complained about Disney movies with girls as the lead 50 years ago. They just have a louder megaphone now, with social media rather than the Thanksgiving dinner table.
But that group has always existed, and they've never been Disney's target demographic. They weren't going to Disney anyway.
Disney is an area that blew up during post-covid revenge travel, and has settled back some as that temporary travel trend recedes. Disney tourism is down basically the same amount as tourism for the entire state of Florida. The areas that blew up the most out of Covid are the ones seeing the largest pullbacks now. It's not two posts down from this one that this same exact thread exists about the pullback in travel in the Smoky Mountains.
It's no different in Disney or the Smokies or the Emerald Coast or Gulf Shores a dozen other markets that were very strong coming out of Covid. Temporary travel boom led to huge increases in supply, and as that temporary boom normalizes we're left with top/standout properties that still perform very well, and average homes lost in the shuffle of huge supply alongside normalizing demand. It's the most basic principle of supply and demand.
Being in this business requires sorting through a lot of fluff. I'm sorry, but this is fluff. Here on the ground, the only actual feedback or cancelations we've gotten are actually the opposite with some bookings being lost to Hispanic travelers that are afraid of the governor's immigration policies (actual guest message), but even those I'm sure are barely a rounding error and mostly fluff in the grand scheme of things.
So you have a bunch of markets acting basically exactly the same. Smokies, Disney, Miami, Gulf Shores, etc. But one of them happens to not align with people politically so they point at that one and say "See, I told you so! It's because they don't agree with my politics!". People just can't help themselves. But it's fluff. If you're worried about Disney itself I wouldn't be. When people get tired of the stuff they have they'll throw another $5 billion at something new. Visitors are down a bit from peak revenge travel, but still way up overall. The wait for 7 dwarves mine train right now is 120 minutes and the extra cost lightning lanes are sold out for the day.
They'll eventually have to give back some of the price increases they jacked up 100% during overwhelming covid demand, and things will level out. Which will probably start after the next earnings report.
So shed no tears for Disney, they'll be fine. The bigger concern is the 40,000 vacation rental properties there alongside the hundreds of massive hotels. If you want to do STR here you've gotta be prepared to stand out. There is just too much supply to be average here, which some people were able to skate by on during the post-covid travel explosion in the area. But ask the person buying an average 3br home in Destin with no pool for $1M or an average 3br forested cherry cabin in Gatlinburg with no view for $800k right now how they're doing and they'll say the same. And last I checked, neither the ocean nor the mountains and streams of Tennessee implied any stance about anything.
Just my $0.02, as someone hosting and elbow deep in this market every day. Take it for what it's worth, and at the end of the day make your own decisions. Because the biggest mistake anyone makes in investing is listening to people like me or any of the rest of us on the internet too closely.