All Forum Posts by: Moises R Cosme

@Alexander Szikla you are exactly right!!!

@Victor S. The Fed's interest rate benchmark runs with bonds the treasury sells, at the current rate investors are break even on US bonds. At some point (I do not know when) investors will stop buying bonds at break even. If investors stop buying bonds then the US will have a funding problem at the federal level.

@Steve Morris seems about right, but those are micro issues... a market correction or crash will be driven by a macro factor & I don't think tax policy is it. What tax policy are you referring to? Is it local to Portland or are you referring to changes you anticipate from the Biden administration?

@Michael Noto excellent!!! How long have you been in the industry?

@Michael Ablan excellent!!! I think hit the nail right on the head, the minute mortgage payments start flexing upwards we will start to see a correction. How did you arrive at this conclusion? Most other responses to the post are missing the key point.

@Joe Villeneuve I do not think getting the timing right is that important; I think it is more important to understand where we are in the cycle generally. I think that as market participants we are likely to misjudge patterns, arrive at incorrect conclusions and place too much or too little weight on the most significant factors. Lastly, markets are the most complex systems we have due to the number of inputs, participants and outputs.

I have read a lot of what you post and in general it seems like: 'pay attention to what's going on, treat investing like a job & try to avoid big mistakes'.

@Joe Villeneuve Seems like you have seen all of this before. How many cycles have you been through as a market participant?

@Steve Montgomery if 08 proves that stocks & RE affect one another, how do explain the dot com crash and the beginning of the housing boom in 2000?

@Eric Bilderback the fed is out of tools, and there are a couple of really big problems on the horizon: (1) baby boomers, (2) Fannie & Freddie are insolvent. I do not believe a crash is imminent, but the market will crash inside of 7 years.

@Justin Thorpe I am not claiming that I will get the timing right; the real estate market is due for a correction, I am calling that BUT I am not smart enough to predict the timing.