All Forum Posts by: Moises R Cosme

@Victor S. Inflation is real, what did the average new car cost in 2010? What does the average new car cost in 2020? Ask yourself the same about milk and cheese. Your girl's observation about the rise in food prices is not perceived and does not exist in a vacuum. Real incomes for most workers is shrinking, while costs for essential items is rising. The low cost of oil is subsidizing everything else; what would happen if gas went to $4/gallon?

@Jeffery Callis what is your conclusion? What do you think all of these things will lead to?

@Ian Walsh that's not fun... what do you think will happen? Does it make sense to you that you are originating loans at 2.37% to borrowers that are putting down 5%, with less than 6 months' of reserves?

@Matthew M. Excellent!!! The demand for Japanese treasuries seems to prove your point. Ok, then the question shifts to the overall Fiat currency system. Your well argued point makes the case that the motivation for investment in treasuries are something other than economic gain; what is everyone doing? Why are treasuries allowed to buy their own sovereign debt to lose money (in real terms)?

I did not expect your response, but overall it is obvious to me that there is a problem. Our treasury pays its mortgage by taking another mortgage and calls that economic growth even when it knows it will need to take another mortgage just to make the payments on the existing debt. Does this make any sense? What is the consequence of this behavior? What is the likely impact on the largest sector of the US economy?

@Max Katelouzos remote work will not work long term. Performance and learning go hand in hand, new employees need the ability to learn from longer term employees; this is not a feature that is easily available or accessible in practical form with remote work. As an example, when I started my sales career most of the actionable information I obtained was from sitting around high performers and being in and around their environments while they worked. I listened to how they said things, how they organized their day etc.

@Matthew M. Real interest rate = nominal rate minus rate of inflation. Then subtract expected income tax rate. What are bond investors earning at the end of the day?

The notion that inflation is zero is false; the cost of education is twice what it was 10 years ago, the cost of milk, cheese, cars etc.

Would we ever accept a 0 net return on investments we make?

@Jason Merchey banks have been incentivized to be 'irrationally exuberant', they can write 30 year loans and sell them within 120 and make a 3 to 5 profit with no recourse after a 2 to 5 year period.

Would lenders lend the same way if they had to hold their mortgage debt for 30 years?

@Justin Thorpe and the national debt number is $27T today but in 08 it was $10T; are the players really more discipline? Or have they just shifted the losses to the US taxpayer? GDP is up, productivity is up but yet GSEs are insolvent & we have $17T of additional national debt...

Again, I do not believe a crash is imminent but it is plain as day that at some point the macro factors will catch up to us; we are clearly incapable of growing our way out of debt.

@Justin Thorpe and yet Fannie still has a leverage ratio of 185 to 1; did the US Fed & Treasury learn their lesson or did they simply 're-roll' all the debt?

@David A. Hilarious!!! So much to say, but you failed to read.