All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

there might be a bubble. but, I was listening this week to an old biggerpockets podcast from 2015 and josh dorking was talking about how we are on top of the cycle, and you can feel it in the air like pre 2008.

that was over 2 years ago, now what if there was someone who decided not to buy anything then and stayed on the sidelines waiting for the crash, and lost out 2 years of cash flow.

just a thought.

Are you talking about Los Angeles specifically?

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Originally posted by @Matt K.:

fine don't count metro

1,360,164Number of households

If we are talking about LA why include Long Beach and Glendale just to skew the data?

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Originally posted by @Jack B.:

Originally posted by @JD Martin:

Originally posted by @Jack B.:

Originally posted by @Michael Kalisch:

that was over 2 years ago, now what if there was someone who decided not to buy anything then and stayed on the sidelines waiting for the crash, and lost out 2 years of cash flow.

just a thought.

I've seen a lot of people on here who have zero college education in microeconomics state that we are at the top of the market because cab drivers, barbers, and construction laborers are all buying houses. When you try to educate them with some micro-economic facts, they lash out and deflect. You can present all the empirical data you want, but people are generally don't want to change their poorly thought out position, they defend it to the death.

You really have to be careful who's advice you take. On several forums like these I've found guys who pound their chest but when you look through their posting history they are making $15 an hour, living in an apartment and paying 6.8% interest on a used car loan.

I had a guy on another forum touting himself as an IT expert who went to a top 25 school. I told him based on his incorrect posts he seemed like he was entry level, fresh out of college, whereas I've been an IT professional for decades, and make well into the six figures. I pay more in taxes than he makes gross in a year...

Turns out I was right, he was making $15 an hour at 23, one year out of college as a junior tester. Four years later I still run across his posts and he's making 50K a year. It's amazing what you learn when you look through peoples posting history...He had several posts with opinions about programming languages in the work place, touting his expert opinion based on 10 years of experience in corporate. At the time of the post he was 23, so apparently he was Mark Zuckerberg and working as a programmer at 13, yet somehow only makes 50K a year 14 years later after going to a top 25 school....Think critically, and be careful who you take advice from...

Here, here. I wish I could vote for this post twice! Except I think you're probably mistaken on the used car loan - it's probably 16.8% :D

You're probably right, he probably did mix up the numbers. Another one of the guys posts he had a dispute with his landlord over move out date, etc. He immediately jumped to I'm going to sue him in small claims court and win, I have tons of evidence, etc. Everyone (and I mean everyone) pointed out to him that he doesn't seem to understand basic reasoning skills, he is actually in the wrong and that he would lose. He never replied back...

You are making a deliberate false accusation and defamatory statements and even by BPs standard a violation of its policy... it is clear your sole purpose is to lurk around and jump into just about every discussion and try to disrupt and engage in all sorts of beligerent behavior. Where is the link to the conversation you are talking about? You need to immediately remove that.

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Originally posted by @Matt K.:

I think 23% of nearly 4 million people can handle the inventory of median priced homes in LA....

oh boy! you dont have 4 million households in LA, its about 1.3 million households. Exaggerations of this sort just about describe most investor behavior in LA... its like the reality of the situation haven't hit you yet.

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Originally posted by @Matt K.:

Originally posted by @Account Closed:

Originally posted by @Shashank R.:

@Account Closeds a lot of this sounds like the Bay Area as well. Do you think that the Bay Area has a housing bubble worse than LA ?

I only have looked at Los Angeles... I am sure I wouldnt want to ask Steph Curry what he thinks of Walnut Creek.

you think he even noticed that loss lol, did you miss the contract he just signed.

Thats beside the point, our concern is what the market is doing.

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Originally posted by @Jack B.:

Originally posted by @Account Closed:

A housing bubble is a run-up in housing prices fueled by demand, speculation and exuberance. ... Speculators enter the market, further driving demand. At some point, demand decreases or stagnates at the same time supply increases, resulting in a sharp drop in prices — and the bubble bursts.

If this is the definition of a housing bubble according to investopedia.... LA may be heading into some serious trouble.

Median LA housing price = $685,000 (zillow avg. of median home value & median listing price)

Income required to qualify = $125,000 (0% down, 4.5% mortgage)

Income required to qualify = $118,000 (5% down, 4.5% mortgage)

Median LA household income = $54,000 (argue accuracy of data with census bureau)

How much home can a household buy with $54,000 = $260,000

Primary factor driving LA prices = Speculation (may also argue demand)

I don't think you understand that the word median means...half the households have an income above that. If there was no demand, housing prices there wouldn't be rising.

You posted nothing but conjecture, then try to conclude that the primary factor driving LA prices is speculation (or demand). Yet you presented no actual evidence of speculation, though you did inadvertently provide proof of demand given limited supply: high housing prices..

You need to understand this and at some point also understand that this is not about feelings. $100,000 doesnt necessarily qualify you for a $700,000 house based on what you put down but only 23% of the population earn in excess of that. In excess of 75% of "households" earn below qualifying income.

Total households LA (City)	1342761	100.00%
Less than $10,000	107910	8.04%
$10,000 to $14,999	93278	6.95%
$15,000 to $24,999	159005	11.84%
$25,000 to $34,999	138927	10.35%
$35,000 to $49,999	169744	12.64%
$50,000 to $74,999	213162	15.87%
$75,000 to $99,999	139986	10.43%
$100,000 to $149,999	158513	11.81%
$150,000 to $199,999	68749	5.12%
$200,000 or more	93487	6.96%
Median household income (2015)	$50205
% Earning $100K or More	23.89%
% Earning less than $100K	76.11%

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Originally posted by @Shashank R.:

@Account Closeds a lot of this sounds like the Bay Area as well. Do you think that the Bay Area has a housing bubble worse than LA ?

I only have looked at Los Angeles... I am sure I wouldnt want to ask Steph Curry what he thinks of Walnut Creek.

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Originally posted by @Account Closed:

Originally posted by @Matt K.:

wealth, wages, inventory, home prices.

But thats the thing...in every city, you have a certain distribution of income profile. In LA for instance only 7% of the population earn $200,000 or more. And if you look at the industry distribution of the labor force in terms of industry they work in, the County of LA percentages is almost identical to the national numbers. The percentage working in tech is almost exactly the national average, the same for just about every industry. Shocking but people think its so drastically different.

This is an example of the industry distribution both nationally and for LA; you see any material difference? Actually the national average for both computer and mathematical and engineering professions is higher than the LA average but you had the impression it was higher in LA or Cali than the rest of the country.

	USA	LA
Total, all occupations	100.00%	100.00%
Management	5.1	5.4
Business and financial operations	5.2	5.8
Computer and mathematical	3	2.5
Architecture and engineering	1.8	1.5
Life, physical, and social science	0.8	0.8
Community and social service	1.4	1.6
Legal	0.8	0.9
Education, training, and library	6.2	6
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media	1.4	3.8
Healthcare practitioners and technical	5.9	5.1
Healthcare support	2.9	2.3
Protective service	2.4	2.7
Food preparation and serving related	9.2	9.4
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance	3.2	2.4
Personal care and service	3.2	3.2
Sales and related	10.4	10.1
Office and administrative support	15.7	17
Farming, fishing, and forestry	0.3	0.1
Construction and extraction	4	2.5
Installation, maintenance, and repair	3.9	3
Production	6.5	6.3
Transportation and material moving	6.9	7.4

https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/occu...

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Originally posted by @Matt K.:

wealth, wages, inventory, home prices.

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All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

Account Closed has started 11 posts and replied 613 times.

Post: Housing Bubble: Why it may be worse than previously thought

Post: Housing Bubble: Why it may be worse than previously thought

Post: Housing Bubble: Why it may be worse than previously thought

Post: Housing Bubble: Why it may be worse than previously thought

Post: Housing Bubble: Why it may be worse than previously thought

Post: Housing Bubble: Why it may be worse than previously thought

Post: Housing Bubble: Why it may be worse than previously thought

Post: Housing Bubble: Why it may be worse than previously thought

Post: Housing Bubble: Why it may be worse than previously thought

Post: Housing Bubble: Why it may be worse than previously thought