Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
And in the 4 months since the peak, there has been decline every month. Some months more than others, but the trajectory has been down.
If you said the trajectory is down, then it's correct. Freddie Mac say we are going down until August 2023. But only down 1.5%, that number you may not like I guess :-)
Good to know that an inept federal agency knows what's going to happen a year out. Maybe you can ask them for the winning Powerball numbers. I hear it's up to 2 billion now. Powerball is a day or two out, so this should be a no-brainer for them compared to fortune telling a year out.
Ok going to channel my inner James. Pretty harsh for somebody not using a trend line talking about trajectory…..
Just saying... if you need to start summoning and "channeling" James, you've lost the argument 😂😂
I don’t always agree with James but he makes a lot of valid points. As he did above. I just didn’t want to be quite so blunt but when you posted Redfin data for 18% and then told me how you calculated. Candidly I wanted to say some pretty blunt things.
Your own data doesn’t show what you claim not even a bit…
Yet you have no factual argument against it. There is no trickery, I don't know what industry you work in, but apparently "annualization" isn't part of it. This is very common is the business world. It's called pacing and annualization.
There's nothing that's inaccurate at all in my analysis of data since the peak. If there is, please point it out in detail.
I cited all my data 100%, and you now make a baseless claim that my data doesn't show what I claim? Dude, don't know what you're deal is, but you're making zero sense.
Annualization is common (although typically you adjust for seasonality). Using a period less than annual to do it is not. Your skewing data and apparently don’t understand trend lines. Absolutely everything is wrong with your analysis and would not be done in business.
Your own data shows the trajectory is not on pace for 18% but you apparently don’t understand forecasting at all.
My problem was you claimed 18% median adjustment. And your own data posted shows it’s not. I was polite in pointing it out. Then showed you the last 3 months trajectory (in your 4 month trend) and you don’t seem to understand what that suggests for next few months.
You haven’t factored in for anomalies, short term trends, anything. Frankly you are using 4 months - 3 of which have very litle trend down, the first month which has a larger drop. And then suggesting the data shows it will drop by that average on going. Yet the last 3 month trend completely contradicts it.
Lets it it this way lets say it trends down for 6 month (5% a month) for a total of 30%. Lets say the next 2 months it trends up 5% a month %. Are you going to predict it will be flats in month 3 and 4 because of your 4 month average?
It also explains why you didn’t understand me pointing out that weirdly large May anomaly in DFW.
