Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Buying when there is a good deal is common sense - that's true regardless of prices, rates, or market conditions.
The point is that a overwhelming majority of buys right now are not good deals. Prices are still very high and rates are at a multi-decade high.
Trying to buy at the very bottom is nearly impossible, but that's not what I'm advocating. I'm saying not to buy when prices are at the ceiling. If I buy somewhere between the high and the low, that's ok. Buying at the top of a bubble is not smart.
So you say it's a fools errand to try and forecast the market, which is exactly what you and Carlos are trying to do. You guys sit here and talk about the economy, inflation, the IFM, the FED and what they are going to do a year out.
But now you're saying that trying to time any market is "fool hardy".
I said it’s a fools errand to time the high and the low. It’s also pointless because there are other factors.
As an example if I’m sitting on $1 million cash right now do I really hold off because interest rates are high? Especially if I know I can refinance and make money in the meantime and protect the current money from inflation?
The only thing I advocate is making good deals period. I bought one not long ago will make CoC conservatively 19% on the realistic side closer to 23% and possibly as high as 27%. interest rate isn't great at 6% but who cares with that kind of cash flow? i'll refi in a few years. Could I maybe lose 5-7% in equity in short term? Sure. Do I care? Nope not selling it anytime soon.
Anyway there’s a different in forecasting no crash to market and trying to time the high and low.
If we want to be precise your exact words were 'Waiting for the best deal or trying to time any market is fool hardy"
And that's exactly what you and Carlos (and others) have been doing. He was open and admitted it :)
I'm actually with you guys in terms of trying to forecast the market and time moves. Our difference is that we have different opinions of what comes next.
Now you are just being needlessly picky. “Timing the market” is an incredibly common phrase used in stocks - do you not trade in them? The biggest hit a lot of consumer investors make with stocks is pulling out in timing the market. If people pulled out in October they lost big money this past week when it jumped quite a bit.
I know what Carlos said. Frankly I’ve never heard somebody make that kind of comment as distinct as that, and I know plenty on Wall Street. The trick to investing is either day trading - which is a ridiculous amount of work or being in it long term. Trying to time big swings just isn’t feasible, if it were those investment companies would return a lot more.
But my forecast on what comes next could easily swing 2-3 quarters. I’ve been talking about general periods. That’s hardly useful for “timing” the high or low of a market. So no I’ve not been trying to time the market. I don’t care about the market. I care about what my investment makes me on return. Simple as that.
BTW people in 08 got scared off from investing back then too. Left a lot of money on the table because they were convinced more bad was coming….
