Quote from @Mike Dymski:
Quote from @Harish V.:
Quote from @Mike Dymski:
Quote from @Harish V.:
Quote from @Eric James:
One stated benefit of investing in real estate is price appreciation. However, if you look at inflation adjusted real estate prices for the most part there isn't much appreciation. There are specific points in time like 2006 (we know what followed that) and right now when real estate exceeds inflation adjusted prices. However, over the long term it doesn't really appear that real estate appreciates much beyond inflation. Is real estate appreciation a myth?
https://www.supermoney.com/inf...
Look at long term studies 100yr+ you will see
Inflation is 3% range. Bonds are in same 3% range
Real estate is 6-7% range.
Stocks are in 10% range.
There are periods of divergence from this and there will be catchup. Here is bigger pockets article on this:
Bonds vs. Stocks vs. Real Estate: Which One Wins? | Blog (biggerpockets.com)
This is offcourse favoring real estate, however you can look up other indpendent sources and find that stocks normally get 10% total returns considering dividends are reinvested.
In my opinion stocks are best for passive strategies that are long term.
If an investor can only get a 6-7% total return on real estate, they definitely should invest in something else. Direct owned real estate is too much work to not achieve outpaced returns. Most of us have 20-25+% minimum IRR hurdles. Otherwise, could just invest passively with others and get returns in the teens.
The numbers I quoted are compound annual returns. If you are saying that compound annual returns of 20% are easily achieved then anyone who started with 25k in 2000 should have turned it to a 1m. Without adding any more money to it.
Also by extension, what you are saying is that govt pension funds etc which are modeling in 7.5% return and not able to achieve are fools. I sure hope CalPERs etc can adopt your model. They may be able to support all pension and even reduce taxes.
Harish, yes, 20-25+% IRR threshold. Do you invest in real estate? If so, I'm interested in your IRR experience and threshold return. Your profile says syndication experience. We can passively invest in syndications and achieve returns in the teens. So, there is no sense in investing in active direct owned real estate without a premium to that return. Incidentally, the 20-25% is about what it takes for the total return in a syndication to split returns and provide LPs with returns in the teens. It's not my model...it's most investors' models. None of us would invest in real estate for a 6-7% return...can get that with index funds/ETFs.
For my personal investments made in 2005, return is 7-8%. Anything after 2012/13 is 20% plus. Which highlights the fact that returns can be higher than trend sometimes. Other times they may br lower than trend.
i personally expect most of future return for next 10+ yrs to come from rental increases rather than appriciation. I do hope i am wrong and you are right, it only benefits me :-)