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All Forum Posts by: Harish V.

Harish V. has started 3 posts and replied 178 times.

Post: A recession is coming and maybe as early as summer

Harish V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Fremont, CA
  • Posts 182
  • Votes 107
Quote from @Brian Ellis:

Who knows where the markets heading.. all I know is it has become more difficult than ever to find a deal that works. Even off market deals aren’t making sense. 

I personally think we’re close to a correction. I have been very optimistic over the years but I can see very irrational spending lately. 

Everyone in 2017: “don’t buy a house, wait until the market goes down!

Everyone in 2022: "this is a deal! 5% COC"


I don’t get it, but I’ll keep looking. 


Things are changing quickly with Mortgage back to 5, 10 yr bonds from 1.x to almost 3 in 30 days. I think COC will have to increase to 7-8% plus by year end. One can only wish this all happens without recession. If it does there will be inflation of 3,4 or even 5% for next few years.

Post: California proposes additional 25% tax for flippers

Harish V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Fremont, CA
  • Posts 182
  • Votes 107
Quote from @Janelle K. Eagle:
Quote from @Account Closed:
Quote from @Janelle K. Eagle:
I don't know what the concern is, those politicians were elected, re-elected, re-elected again over and over. They make the laws & raise the taxes. Seems the people of Califonia love to feel the pain.

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results"

————


  correction - Chris Ward is a *first term* representative who has not been re-elected nor elected again over and over. He’s trying to make a name for himself in San Diego, where the market has truly gotten insane. He’s doing it the wrong way and just because he introduced it doesn’t mean he has broad support or that it will pass.

Hmmm, are you saying that your taxes aren't too high? Maybe so for yourself. However, the Revolutionary war was faught over a 2% TOTAL tax. 
And by the way, one exception (Chris Ward) doesn't make the rule. Those that would vote on the bill and perhaps pass it never met a tax increase they didn't like, and their voting records show that. They've been around a long, long time. But, facts don't really matter when they come to taxes.

Or maybe you like pipe dreams and don't mind being soaked of your toil.

"In 2008, when voters approved nearly $10 billion of state bond funding, they were promised bullet trains traveling at more than 200 mph from San Diego to San Francisco and Sacramento at a cost of $45 billion. By last year, the cost estimate had jumped to $83 billion and perhaps as high as $100 billion, but just for a system from San Francisco to Anaheim."

No, what I wrote is what I said. California is known for its diversity- including diversity of opinion. One freshman representative does not a “movement” make. Nor a revolution. 

 Boy oh boy. That Kiplinger's writer is living pipe dream. House prices 300k.  Incomes 70k/household in california.

Post: A recession is coming and maybe as early as summer

Harish V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Fremont, CA
  • Posts 182
  • Votes 107
Quote from @Isaac S.:

Ok, to summit it up for for everyone....

The sky is either starting to fall or going to eventually fall...BUT, if you have a big enough and strong umbrella, you should be fine.


 Yes , you can only do umbrella. You cannot predict sky falling accurately.

Post: A recession is coming and maybe as early as summer

Harish V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Fremont, CA
  • Posts 182
  • Votes 107
Quote from @John Morgan:
Quote from @Harish V.:
Quote from @Michael P. Lindekugel:
Quote from @Harish V.:
Quote from @Joseph Coleman:

If inflation keeps high causing rates to rise, home prices may stall and rents may start rising. Its important to be flexible with your strategy and not rely only on appreciation. However in case of sharp recession both may go down for little time, hence important to keep Cash aside to ride the storm (if any).  


rents price inflation has been happening in most the country since last year. some places as much as 15% to 30% rent price inflation. existing home owners buying second homes are not listing there first home for sale couple with an existing shortage supply of all types of housing.

 My personal experience is bit different in Bay area here. While prices are sky rocketing the rents are actually going lower, here are few samples:

801 Clyde Ave, Santa Clara, CA 95054 | Zillow
1828 Blue Spruce Ct, Milpitas, CA 95035 | Zillow
1695 Jackson St, Santa Clara, CA 95050 | Zillow

This is one of the reasons why I believe Bay Area is not suitable for investors anymore. In fact most California has this problem.



Why are rents going down in the Bay Area? Those are pretty cheap rentals for those good locations. I’m from Los Altos and moved to Dallas due to the cost of living. We couldn’t afford to live out there on one income. It seems like half of CA is moving out here. I’m getting $1500-$2100/month in rent for the same types of houses. But I’m only paying around 140-200k for them so the ROI is decent. Those homes are probably 1-1.5 million so that’s a terrible ROI. I’d sell if the market is still on fire out there. Then 1031 exchange them into rentals out of state. 

 Yes! you are right, this proves the saying all real estate is local. 

Post: A recession is coming and maybe as early as summer

Harish V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Fremont, CA
  • Posts 182
  • Votes 107
Quote from @Michael P. Lindekugel:
Quote from @Harish V.:
Quote from @Joseph Coleman:

If inflation keeps high causing rates to rise, home prices may stall and rents may start rising. Its important to be flexible with your strategy and not rely only on appreciation. However in case of sharp recession both may go down for little time, hence important to keep Cash aside to ride the storm (if any).  


rents price inflation has been happening in most the country since last year. some places as much as 15% to 30% rent price inflation. existing home owners buying second homes are not listing there first home for sale couple with an existing shortage supply of all types of housing.

 My personal experience is bit different in Bay area here. While prices are sky rocketing the rents are actually going lower, here are few samples:

801 Clyde Ave, Santa Clara, CA 95054 | Zillow
1828 Blue Spruce Ct, Milpitas, CA 95035 | Zillow
1695 Jackson St, Santa Clara, CA 95050 | Zillow

This is one of the reasons why I believe Bay Area is not suitable for investors anymore. In fact most California has this problem.



Post: A recession is coming and maybe as early as summer

Harish V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Fremont, CA
  • Posts 182
  • Votes 107
Quote from @Joseph Coleman:

If inflation keeps high causing rates to rise, home prices may stall and rents may start rising. Its important to be flexible with your strategy and not rely only on appreciation. However in case of sharp recession both may go down for little time, hence important to keep Cash aside to ride the storm (if any).  

Post: Problem tenants are offering to break lease early

Harish V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Fremont, CA
  • Posts 182
  • Votes 107
Quote from @Dan H.:

I fear if you try to collect what is due, they will simply stay the extra month.  How will that benefit you?  Am I missing something?  You want them out and they are willing to move out early and you are asking if you should make them stay for the additional month specified in the lease?

Seems like an easy decision to me.

I had a high maintenance tenant once (I suspect she also was bipolar) that for some reason had more than their fair share of legit problems with the unit as well as a slew of other items that they complained about or was of their own doing.  It seemed best for both of us for them to leave before the lease expiration.  I offered to let them leave early and they took me up on the offer.  I think it was good for both parties; I know it was good for us.  

The next tenant in that unit had zero issues for an extended duration (until they had the mother of all issues, the front of the unit caught fire and took 12 months to rebuild).  I would have kept this tenant, if possible, but we had no empty unit to relocate him (the fire took out two of our units).

Having the high maintenance tenant move out worked out well for me.  I think you should not look the gift horse in the mouth.

good luck

You are not loosing rent. They will not pay when not staying. I think it's win-win. Go for it.

Post: Real Estate Agent's car

Harish V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Fremont, CA
  • Posts 182
  • Votes 107

When looking for my first property, we had agent driving us arround in a BMW 5 series, while good to sit. Every time I would say to myself, this is all coming from my money. I think, a decent clean car is a good enough. 

Post: San Diego or Austin ?

Harish V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Fremont, CA
  • Posts 182
  • Votes 107
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

I would take advantage of the opportunity if only because CA is severely tenant friendly and likely to become more so as they follow the path they're on. Plus you'll probably make more $$ in the long run...


 The Market in CA, more importantly bay area is messed up. I see properties with Zillow estimate of 1.5M+ with rental estimate of < 4K.  Thats a 2% return before property tax and property tax will eat up 50% of it for sure, if purchase was made today.  Dont think anyone can buy for investment anymore. Any existing rental properties are going to be neglected. Rental rates are going to sky rocket 2-3 years from now.

Post: San Diego or Austin ?

Harish V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Fremont, CA
  • Posts 182
  • Votes 107
Quote from @Twana Rasoul:

@Vamsi Pan Hi There! Is there a reason that you want to sell other than your tenants moving out and you feeling like your returns are not that great? 

More often than not, selling is not the best option in San Diego/not necessary.   You are making $17,000 a year in cashflow, how much has your property increased in value, how long have you had it and how much did you put down to initially buy the property. 

Without knowing more details, I'd have a hard time believing that your returns have not been great, especially if you have held for more than 5 years.

@17k for a mil you are having cash flow of 1.7%. You can surely get better in Austin/San Antonio. Besides, considering that inflation is going higher. Rents will be higher while Rates can be locked. You may want to be net borrower in high inflation environment. Just be careful to keep some money aside for emergency. Choose better areas so you get both income and equity gain.