If anyone calls Powell an idiot or says he was too slow to react to the recession, they are not realizing that back in 2018, during their meeting, they stated or wished for an event that would help make inflation extra hot so they could raise rates and gain back the power needed to help combat next recession. Guess COVID was what they wished for. I can't imagine the number of PHDs in that Fed building but we want to think they are stupid. They know what they are doing and unlike us, they are happy banks are failing and housing is coming down. The issue I see is many people compare what is happening to 2008 as their way of predicting what will happen next; however, history didn't start in 2008--look further back at 1930s and 1970s high inflation/high-interest rates leading us into bad times for a long period of time.
Some people say they will jump into the market when it crashes. But they don't consider how they'll buy these deals. They assume the market will crash, but financing will remain the same. I remember at the start of COVID our commercial banker told us he was only lending at 60% LTV. Fear can tighten financial markets, and only those with experience and cash will prevail. We're only seeing the start of this downturn, but rookies are jumping in as if the market had flattened out. The 2008 crash didn't happen overnight--it started back in 2006 in certain parts of the country but became widespread in 2008.
Though new syndicators are still using old playbooks, raising cash will not be easy for them. Many newly constructed properties will be coming online in the near future, and there are many existing newly built single-family properties that cannot be sold, thus creating more inventory as rentals. So, there will be a lot of deals in all asset classes. However, with fewer tenants willing to move out of their current apartments and into newer ones, landlords may have to offer incentives such as one-month free rent in order to get new tenants into their buildings.
I hope that passive investors and general partners who are raising money for current deals will realize that their old playbook won't work if our market heads into a glut. Using an internal rate of return (IRR) and making predictions about what three to five years will hold is, in my opinion, deceptive. Snake oil salesmen are attempting to manipulate numbers to serve themselves. It's fine to need to keep doing deals so you can live off the fees from limited partners (LPs), but be ethical. If you haven't seen a downturn before then hold off doing deals until you have enough capital and people on your team who have experience and can advise.
In the last few years, anyone in real estate regardless of how dumb you were in High School made money. The new market will filter out the real investors.