All Forum Posts by: J. Martin

When unemployment in SF goes up, prices in the Bay Area are flat or go down.
When unemployment in SF goes down, prices go up.

So the real question is, what will happen to jobs?
I think a localized event like a tech bust or a more worldwide event could cool off the economy enough to trigger some severity of recession (whether it be typical or extreme). If they coincide, that would be worse. Timing is highly speculative, IMHO. But housing affordability is very stretched, and unemployment is about as low as it gets - under 3% in SF.. hmmm...

HOW LONG DOES UNEMPLOYMENT TYPICALLY STAY THIS LOW?

CA doesn't get much better than 5% unemployment, historically, before we get one of those grey lines..  hmmmmm...

https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/311/topics/26...

Whether prices in the Bay Area go down a lot or not, there might be a better risk-adjusted time to buy (when unemployment is closer to record highs than record lows,) IMHO.

 Leslie,

I would totally come, except I'm in Savannah right now, and won't quite be finished driving back by then I don't think.. Late July or early August I'll be back in the Bay Area, ready to rock for the Summit on 8/27 & 8/28!!! :)

 lol I know how to calculate tax savings.. I think our boats are passing by each other in the night...

"The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world he didn't exist."
...and some spreadsheets may be a little too sharp for their own good...

But I don't sell real estate, so I don't know much about this marketing kind of stuff.. Best of luck!

Never seen the calculated profit just subtracting the HOA from the gross rental income.. but to each their own I guess..

Tim, glad you can make it out too!! It's going to be an awesome experience! :)

 Mark, I'm sorry to hear about your mobility issues now, but glad it's not slowing you down in real estate. There are both 1 and 2 day tickets on the summit website, so you can get either. I should have the agenda for each day in the next week or so. It's been a busy month!!! Nav Athwal will be on Saturday and Mr Landlord Jeffrey Taylor will be on Sunday, but I should have the rest soon.. Sign up on www.meetup.com/REmeetup also to get info as it comes out... Hope to see you there!

@Mike McIntosh,

Along @Paul Timmins's recommendation, @Al Williamson and @David Oldenburg and @Tapan Trivedi all have meetups in the Sacramento area, to learn more and meet with other investors, and grow your biz. I agree and highly recommend.

@Kim Stofan, are you going to join us also..?

Mike, I know it's a lot of info.. But it's like eating an elephant. One bite at a time ;) And meeting others who are making it happen goes a long way :)

@Bryan O.,

For a person that sells real estate as a business....

"If the market is down... BUY!!!
If the market is up.... BUY NOW!!!"

Look at the OP's post. It looks like it is a copy and pasted marketing email, with a link to what he is selling. Take it for what it is..

 Steve,

I'll give you a free ticket to the Summit on 8/27 & 8/28 if you want to come down to say hi to everyone in person ;)  Trek down with Troy Fisher and the rest of the Washington crew.. ;)

@Gabriel King,

Good question for @Chris Mason,

Thanks for posting your off-market property. Don't usually see cap rates advertised on condos, but couldn't quite get to 6% unleveraged cash flow with my dull pencil over the longer term.. Probably on a month 1 basis.

Good luck everyone, and hope to meet the rest of you soon! :)

@Julie L. also has some good points about the listing dynamic right now.  Things are a little funky, and it sounds like you're not playing the market's game..

Do you mind sharing the listing, or at least what neighborhood you're in..?

I haven't sold any of my properties in Oakland or Richmond because they produce good cash flow relative to the after-tax proceeds from a potential sale. And the valuations on market rents (~10 GRM on lower-end properties) are not totally out of whack, because there's still a bit of cash flow there. But I think they will be worth less than today at a later point in time most likely (lower-end more susceptible to economic cycle).

What do you think about these questions..?

Best of luck! And welcome to BP! :)