#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted Thanks @Account Closed , but it looks like I have to sign up for some sort of business package, and I cannot find the actual pricing.
@Adam Hofmann , it looked like $30/mo minimum for Evoice. Do you know anything about kall8? It would be great to have something where I can keep the number and service all year, even though I will only be using it once or twice a year, without shelling out $360/yr. Given my lease volume, that would start eliminating the benefit of using the VA.. Maybe I'm just too cheap :( lol
Hey J Martin who did you end up going with? Grasshopper? how has it turned out?
I definitely am setting up a voicemail rental phone. I used to use google voice but I'm tired of it because it calls your cell phone directly. I don't want to take calls all the time I am looking for a service that will have multiple phone numbers that I can outsource to VAs
This is for prop management/landlording and for acquisitions for buy hold.
I don't want calls to all be forwarded to my cell phone as google voice does.
I also need a couple dedicated phone numbers
Any other recs?
Will,
Right now I'm using Line2, a VOIP service. But I think it's different than what you need it for. I use it for my team where all calls and texts to that number can be seen/answered by anyone on any phone or computer. You want multiple different numbers, routed. From my prior research, grasshopper is the best for multiple numbers, advanced routing configurations, and lots of menu options. (is this an emergency? press 1!) Grasshopper is on the pricier side though. Gotta pay to play!
I like Line2 and have another Line2 line that I use in general because I travel internationally a lot. Then I can get a local cheap sim card w/ tons of data, and still get my texts and calls. One downfall is that it cannot get automated texts from some verification systems, like certain password renewal stuff.
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted Apt, Room, or Bed rental?
The real question is in a college town, do you rent by the apartment, room, or bed! Per head/per bed will typically give you the highest income, but most work. Then per bedroom. Then the entire place. (as those two things reverse).
Lease
You can have a "joint and several" lease, where everyone is responsible for the entire thing, but it might make potential tenants or co-signers nervous when they don't know the other people. You can also have one lease per person. You can get a guarantor (co-signer) if the applicant is not strong enough to pay the room rate on their own. Still have them sign a lease. Some people just use the normal state's realtor's lease, but in the address they are renting, specify the bedroom also, then attach an addendum for house rules, etc. (a good idea).
Airbnb
You should also consider throwing some inexpensive furniture in there and some beds and throw on Airbnb. There are a lot of students looking on there now, so they don't have to deal with furniture, the whole roommate/CL process, etc. Just a smoother transaction. Even people looking for longer. Airbnb will also transfer the individual payments to whatever account you want. So don't have to deal with that as much.
Question:
How much work do you want to do?
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted Stoked you can make it out again! And thanks for tagging some folks too.
@Jonny C.,
Along the lines of finding a deal in the Bay, we're going to have several local deal-makers out talking about what they're doing today to find deals. @Arlen Chou has been stealing our deals out in Oakland, after buying in Silicon Valley. (good, cash-flowing deals, when others said it couldn't be done.) @Jason Buzi is absolutely crushing it, flipping, building.. And hopefully @Amit M. will come out to share about San Francisco. And we'll have a bunch of other local folks of course. Along with notes, short term rentals, and some other niche stuff :) You should talk to Sandeep about his niche here in the Bay..
Glad you can make it out again, and I need to finish reaching out to everyone. Brian Burke is coming out. We'll be hammering out the final format and work more on the agenda in July to hammer this stuff out..
@Peggy Liu,
Ya! Year 3! Can't hardly believe it! I hear you on the passive stuff. I've been running around dealing with a lot of stuff for my business, and some tenant stuff here and there. You might need to talk to Dave Van Horn and get some notes going and collect that mailbox money!
@Sandeep S.,
"thanks for the tag and I'm certainly going to be there! I can't imagine not going to such a fabulous RE event while living in the bay area. Just to be able to hang out with so many incredible folks for 2 days makes it worth going (..and all RE knowledge gained is a bonus :)"
How much do I owe you for the glowing testimonial?! haha Thanks Sandeep. Appreciate it. It's really unique to be able to get all these people in one place. Good seeing you again the other day, and will look forward to seeing you in October when I get back from Seattle!
@Chatree C.
"How do people connect in an event like this.." Great question. It's a little different for everyone. Some old school guys like Arlen Chou write everything down in a paper notebook. Business cards are still very common. We'll also be getting people connected on Bigger Pockets and Facebook before the event. And we'll have targeted networking sessions after the breakout groups to get better connected with the people interested in the same subject matter. Get some biz cards too!
@Vinny Vu,
Yes, it is also friendly to newbies. The folks coming out are mostly from Bigger Pockets, and have that same vibe of helping people out, sharing openly, and networking to get to better results for everyone. Along with getting educated, it's ALL about meeting people. Getting connected. Learning what works already. What works best for you. And nothing like connecting with others to help hash these things out.. What is your biggest goal in real estate/
I love what @Sean Pan said on the prior page:
"Already bought my ticket! Last year's event was amazing, I learned so much from your guest speakers and managed to close on 3 cash flowing properties. Looking forward to learning new things this year "
Come on out Vinny! Thanks for the shout out also Peggy :)
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted I didn't jump in earlier, because @Amit M. was kicking ***. Great info. Now that we're down to the nitty gritty in Oakland.. (btw, Amit, fortunately, you do not need the entire history of rent increases, which could be harder for the prior owner to document.. just the original lease date and rent, current rent, and if there were any prior capital pass-throughs - because the calculator calculates the cumulative maximum from the start date (or last 10 years), then see how much it can be increased from the current rent level, along with caps.)
*Not legal advice. Consult your own expert and refer to Oakland website*
"@Amit M Thank you so much on the details. This really a good idea and I know the former owner have not increased rent every (since 2012). One issue though, it looks like the former owner did not registered with the rent board (hence not paying fees), is that will in any way affect me?"
Prior Owner
First, don't sweat what the prior owner did too much.
If you have the leases and estoppels, you have your bases covered.
Just make sure you your notifications out as soon as you buy the building. You shouldn't have to pay "back fees" for the prior owner - like a trash bill lien - just for your ownership.
Before all that..
**IMPORTANT** - before closing
Make sure you get the original leases from the owner, from when the tenant originally moved in. If they created a new lease during the tenancy, and you don't have the original lease document, obtain it. You will need the original lease start date and original lease $ amount to do your banked rent increase calculation. Also, find out the date of rent increase for each unit before closing if possible, as you can only raise rents once in a year. If they did any capital pass-through increases, that will also help you with the calculator. The calculator is here on the City of Oakland RAP website.. (I recommend you fill this out before you buy the building)
http://rapwp.oaklandnet.com/resources/calculators/
(Use the banked rent increase calculator, as it's unlikely you're passing through capital costs or other things right now..) Note: RAP is the Rent Adjustment Program (rent control & just cause evictions)
**Notifications** - Immediately after closing
#1) Give them the RAP notice right after you buy the building, and post the Harassment notice in a common area.
#2) Pay your RAP fees for each unit
#3) Register for your Oakland business tax license.
(These are also required for rent increases. Downloads are here: http://rapwp.oaklandnet.com/resources/required-not...)
You should do these when you first buy the building anyway, as you're not sure what notices were provided by prior owner. In addition, if all 3 of these are not done, any rent increase you provide to the tenants is invalid. Also provide the RAP notification when raising rents. (And don't push a rent increase until you have completed these things)
General RAP info: http://rapwp.oaklandnet.com/
Owner's Guide to Rent Control: http://www2.oaklandnet.com/oakca1/groups/ceda/docu...
Rent increases: http://rapwp.oaklandnet.com/issues/rent-increase/
Required Notices: http://rapwp.oaklandnet.com/resources/required-not..
Calculators: http://rapwp.oaklandnet.com/resources/calculators/
These are all the resources you need to be successful, and a specific action plan to get you set with the city so you're paying what you owe, in compliance with notification requirements, and have the tools to calculate and submit valid rent increases to tenants.
Best of luck!
@Katie P. organized a meetup with a bunch of BP folks on Sunday in Oakland if you want to join us.. :)
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted What states/cities are you thinking about?
There may be some benefits to buying a larger property, but you're also putting more eggs in one basket when it sounds like you don't have experience in that asset class (commercial property), or the location (out of state). (if that is the case).
As long as you're comfortable with the overall leverage, you might want to think more about the location and team you'll be using than exactly what LTV you're going to go into the next deal with. As long as you roll the total amount from your sale into the 1031 purchase, and don't have to pay taxes on "the boot," you can maintain some flexibility to buy more when you want - since you're not under the gun to deploy a larger amount of capital to avoid taxes.
Just some food for thought... Good luck Chris!
Hopefully will meet you at one of the local meetups..
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted Credit is the fuel of the economy. But what happens when loan growth slows toward zero?
And what happens when banks can't make good spreads on their loans, relative to the risk present in the economy?
I love this first graph because it has almost 70 years of data - C&I Loan growth.
These are business loans, from wall street to main street..
C&I Credit Growth
Since 2016, C&I credit growth has plunged off a cliff. What do you see historically when loan growth significantly curtails? Another sign that we are in a late phase of this expansionary cycle. How long will this cycle continue? Time will tell. But record low unemployment rates, significantly curtailed credit growth, and a flattening yield curve moving towards inversion aren't especially promising.
YIELD CURVE SPREAD - difference between 2yr and 10yr Treasury yields.
The yield curve is also a notorious indicator of future recessions. As the economy gets later in the expansionary phase, short term rates increase as the Federal Reserve increases rates, flattening the yield curve towards inversion, leading consumers and businesses to curtail long-term borrowing and investment, turning the yield curve inverted. This is not in emergency territory, but you can see the cycle play out in the yield curve, with some static in between..
C&I Credit Growth vs Job Growth
It looks like there is a pretty good correlation between C&I credit growth, employment growth, and recessions, over the last 70ish years. (and I would argue, some causation and feedback loops there). Been happening for quite a while. Any concerns over the recent drop in credit growth?
What do you think? Worthless?
Or has some useful info in the data..?
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted For the folks coming out to join us, who do you most want to see? and/or what do you most want to get out of the Summit?
Especially our newly signed up attendees for this year..
@Jeff Greenberg, @Mick Harvey, @Account Closed, did you enjoy last year?
We have the same awesome venue!
www.sfbaysummit.com
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted Hi @Chris Penny,
I don't have anything to sell and not an agent or provider, but I do definitely recommend going to some local meetups, and leverage the info here on BP. I think Brandon Turner wrote a book on how to buy RE out of state (very carefully lol). @Katie P. organized a meetup for next Sunday in the East Bay, and @Ryder Meehan is having an out of state investing meetup this week in SF. Come out and meet some people in person. I'll be at both. I don't invest out of state, but have heard from a lot of folks who have, and there are definitely approaches that work better than others..
Lots of great folks in the Bay Area to connect with!
Hopefully we'll see you in person soon :)
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted It might not feel like a jobs boom to many, but damn! Does it get much better than this!?
Check out the historical unemployment charts for the United States, California, San Francisco, and the greater Bay Area.. Some interesting stuff! Wonder what the Fed is going to do next time.. Just a reminder of where you are buying in the economic cycle :) (If you don't care about CA or the SF Bay, skip to the bottom for US)
I'm not a chartist, but I was surprised how regularly unemployment in CA reverts relatively quickly after getting down to almost exactly 5.0% in the last few decades.. 5.7% as of Nov 2015. If CA unemployment continues it's current pace of dropping about 10-20bp per month, it would be back at 5% by Summer 2016. Again, who knows.. But interesting.. And look how fast unemployment goes up, relative to how slow it goes down!
*Keep in the back of your mind while reading all this that the Fed has ALWAYS lowered rates at least 300bp (3%) in every past recession to cushion the fallout.*
For San Francisco... wow! Bouncing from 3.2% to 3.4% with what looks like some seasonal fluctuations.. Past the 2006 boom, and approaching tech bubble levels. Good times! The winds are at our back folks, and historically, they don't blow much more, before they start blowing in our face! How much lower does it typically get, how long does it stay that way, and what tends to happen afterward? What is that grey area..? Hmmm..
That's just SF J! What about the rest of the Bay? Well.. things are booming!
Here's the SF / Oakland / Fremont MSA Unemployment rate. At 3.9% now, it has bounced around the 2006 boom levels. A year ago in Nov 2014, it was 4.9%, a full percentage point higher. It has only gone below 2.9% briefly leading up to the tech bubble. We'll see if it gets back there, and what happens afterward..!
Silicon Valley - The San Jose / Sunnyvale / Santa Clara MSA. Doing great also at 4.0%! However, this is the first one that looks like it is starting to lose it's steam, interestingly enough. Historically, it has gone lower in prior booms, and has sputtered in the past, before steaming ahead to the end, then entering a recession. So maybe it still has some room to go. It was at 4.9% a year ago, almost a percentage point higher. It's only breached 3% in the tech bubble. (This is a seasonally adjusted smoothed chart, like the CA chart, so I'll get the regular one later..)
But J! That's just the Bay Area!
The rest of the country is just recovering from the last crisis still! OK OK.. Here's nationwide unemployment. Not quite as "on the verge" as SF and the Bay, but hmmm... Down to 5.0% in Nov 2015. In Nov 2014, it was 5.8%. If continuing at that rate, it would be down to 4.2% by the end of 2016 - and only breached that level in the hot '99/2000 market, which is the lowest unemployment watermark for almost all areas. As low as 4-5% in the last 3 recessions.
The Sky is Falling!!!!
This is not any sort of dooms-day calling for RE or the economy. It's a simple statement that just like unemployment, jobs, incomes, and RE, things go up.. and things go down.. cycles. Are we in the early, middle, or late stage of an expansionary cycle? What's the Fed going to do next time when they can't lower rates 300bp or more to help the economy out? (negative rates? buying securities more broadly?) It seems like a lot of long-term investors make more money buying when the charts are the other way around. So go enjoy yourself for a bit, sock away some cash, and I'll see you in a couple/few years! ;)
@Account Closed , do you see the same kind of regularity with unemployment as you do with HAI? It seems like they have some barriers that come around at the top of each cycle, then tend to revert afterwards.. What do you think about the slowdown in the SJ MSA?
6 months ago, I wrote:
"5.7% as of Nov 2015. If CA unemployment continues it's current pace of dropping about 10-20bp per month, it would be back at 5% by Summer 2016. Again, who knows.. But interesting.. And look how fast unemployment goes up, relative to how slow it goes down!"
Going into Summer, we're almost there!! Down to 5.2% as of May 2016.
Isn't the consistency with which the CA unemployment rate doesn't go much below 5%, then is followed by a recession..?
CA Unemployment Rate Update: May 2017.. 4.7%!
Lower than before the financial crisis, and only matches December 2000, just before the dot-com bust, over the last 45 years of history. Historically, it takes about 18 months from when California hits a low of 5% unemployment until there is a recession, implying late 2018/early 2019 for a recession start (but start not identified until another year later). It takes an average of about 2 years for the unemployment rate to peak after a recession starts, implying the worst of the next recession in 2021 (if history is any indicator). This is all "implied." But we're definitely closer to the end than the beginning!
What do you think about this?
Even with additional people entering the labor pool, how long can we sustain these record low unemployment rates?
Same story around the country..
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted It might not feel like a jobs boom to many, but damn! Does it get much better than this!?
Check out the historical unemployment charts for the United States, California, San Francisco, and the greater Bay Area.. Some interesting stuff! Wonder what the Fed is going to do next time.. Just a reminder of where you are buying in the economic cycle :) (If you don't care about CA or the SF Bay, skip to the bottom for US)
I'm not a chartist, but I was surprised how regularly unemployment in CA reverts relatively quickly after getting down to almost exactly 5.0% in the last few decades.. 5.7% as of Nov 2015. If CA unemployment continues it's current pace of dropping about 10-20bp per month, it would be back at 5% by Summer 2016. Again, who knows.. But interesting.. And look how fast unemployment goes up, relative to how slow it goes down!
*Keep in the back of your mind while reading all this that the Fed has ALWAYS lowered rates at least 300bp (3%) in every past recession to cushion the fallout.*
For San Francisco... wow! Bouncing from 3.2% to 3.4% with what looks like some seasonal fluctuations.. Past the 2006 boom, and approaching tech bubble levels. Good times! The winds are at our back folks, and historically, they don't blow much more, before they start blowing in our face! How much lower does it typically get, how long does it stay that way, and what tends to happen afterward? What is that grey area..? Hmmm..
That's just SF J! What about the rest of the Bay? Well.. things are booming!
Here's the SF / Oakland / Fremont MSA Unemployment rate. At 3.9% now, it has bounced around the 2006 boom levels. A year ago in Nov 2014, it was 4.9%, a full percentage point higher. It has only gone below 2.9% briefly leading up to the tech bubble. We'll see if it gets back there, and what happens afterward..!
Silicon Valley - The San Jose / Sunnyvale / Santa Clara MSA. Doing great also at 4.0%! However, this is the first one that looks like it is starting to lose it's steam, interestingly enough. Historically, it has gone lower in prior booms, and has sputtered in the past, before steaming ahead to the end, then entering a recession. So maybe it still has some room to go. It was at 4.9% a year ago, almost a percentage point higher. It's only breached 3% in the tech bubble. (This is a seasonally adjusted smoothed chart, like the CA chart, so I'll get the regular one later..)
But J! That's just the Bay Area!
The rest of the country is just recovering from the last crisis still! OK OK.. Here's nationwide unemployment. Not quite as "on the verge" as SF and the Bay, but hmmm... Down to 5.0% in Nov 2015. In Nov 2014, it was 5.8%. If continuing at that rate, it would be down to 4.2% by the end of 2016 - and only breached that level in the hot '99/2000 market, which is the lowest unemployment watermark for almost all areas. As low as 4-5% in the last 3 recessions.
The Sky is Falling!!!!
This is not any sort of dooms-day calling for RE or the economy. It's a simple statement that just like unemployment, jobs, incomes, and RE, things go up.. and things go down.. cycles. Are we in the early, middle, or late stage of an expansionary cycle? What's the Fed going to do next time when they can't lower rates 300bp or more to help the economy out? (negative rates? buying securities more broadly?) It seems like a lot of long-term investors make more money buying when the charts are the other way around. So go enjoy yourself for a bit, sock away some cash, and I'll see you in a couple/few years! ;)
@Account Closed , do you see the same kind of regularity with unemployment as you do with HAI? It seems like they have some barriers that come around at the top of each cycle, then tend to revert afterwards.. What do you think about the slowdown in the SJ MSA?
6 months ago, I wrote:
"5.7% as of Nov 2015. If CA unemployment continues it's current pace of dropping about 10-20bp per month, it would be back at 5% by Summer 2016. Again, who knows.. But interesting.. And look how fast unemployment goes up, relative to how slow it goes down!"
Going into Summer, we're almost there!! Down to 5.2% as of May 2016.
Isn't the consistency with which the CA unemployment rate doesn't go much below 5%, then is followed by a recession..?
CA Unemployment Rate Update: May 2017.. 4.7%!
Lower than before the financial crisis, and only matches December 2000, just before the dot-com bust, over the last 45 years of history. Historically, it takes about 18 months from when California hits a low of 5% unemployment until there is a recession, implying late 2018/early 2019 for a recession start (but start not identified until another year later). It takes an average of about 2 years for the unemployment rate to peak after a recession starts, implying the worst of the next recession in 2021 (if history is any indicator). This is all "implied." But we're definitely closer to the end than the beginning!
What do you think about this?
Even with additional people entering the labor pool, how long can we sustain these record low unemployment rates?
Same story around the country..