All Forum Posts by: Joshua McGinnis

According to press release published yesterday by the U.S. Census Bureau:

"Four Texas metro areas together added more people last year than any state in the country except for Texas as a whole, according to new U.S. Census Bureau population estimates released today. The population in these four metro areas increased by more than 400,000 people from July 1, 2014, to July 1, 2015."

In short, the population of Texas has grown by nearly a half a million in just a single year!

That's quite impressive growth. I'd love to hear what you believe is driving these gains, how long you think it'll keep up and how these numbers are influencing your investment decisions.

They say don't mess with Texas, but apparently, people are messing with it. A lot.

All of the major LA analysts are showing increasing demand, rising rents and vacancy rates at all-time lows for industrial property (among everything else).

I'm interested in learning more about the product type. Does anyone have any experience dealing with industrial? I have a lot of questions.

@Paul Powers Welcome to BP

@Sean OTooleAre these title plants also pulling probate records as well? I've been wondering for the longest time where the various probate lead "dealers" have been sourcing their leads when I know that many of them do not have the resources or systems in place to mine the data at every county in the US.

@Elio L.

Let's stipulate we have access to the data. What data would you aggregate to show sufficient demand for office space 1 yr+ from now?

No Costar access here, unfortunately. Too pricey for smaller teams.

I'm looking at a few creative office development opportunities and understanding current demand and having somewhat reliable predictions for future demand / inventories is really important, especially as these projects are at a minimum 1.5 yrs out.

How are other commercial developers / brokers assessing market demand for office space? More specifically, how do obtain current office inventories, what's currently in development / in-the-pipeline, and future demand?

Pretty basic question: what is the best way to model appreciation gains in a long-term multifamily analysis if multifamily values are based on NOI and cap rate?

Is appreciation in property values simply represented in gross income growth? What if rents grow at 3% annually, but property values grow by 8% annually in an area? In that instance, if the cap rate stays the same, the calculated value will be artificially lower than the market value so how did you model or bake-in this market appreciation into say a 5 or 10 yr model?

I also forgot to add something that I believe is just as important as digging into all of the data above: walk the area on foot.

Not amount of driving around in a car will replace you walking the streets. This is the best way to see how an area feels, smell how it smells, and develop your gut instincts about an area.

@Kurt Price

Great question. Understanding your target market is vital to your success as a real estate entrepreneur. 

I'm currently working in several areas, but for all of them, I go deep into understanding how the market functions, what it looks like, feels like, what it needs and doesn't need.

• Make a Map (see below). Determine an outer boundary to your target area and drive each and every street in order to make a map of the city. Do it by hand as the repetitive nature of the exercise is part of what will make the information become engrained in your mind.
• Demographics. You should study the following:
  • Population Trends over the last decade
  • Population Income over the last decade
  • Population Age over the last decade
  • Population Density
  • Ethnic and Cultural Breakdown of the Community
  • How many households exist?
  • What is the breakdown of SFR vs Multi vs Apartments vs Mobile Homes?
• Economy. Research and know the following:
  • Who are the largest employers in the area?
  • How many jobs do those employers employ?
  • Where are the jobs concentrated?
• Inventory.
  • Map every new development under construction.
  • Research the price / size / unit-mix / amenities to every development created in the last 2 years.
  • Do the above for developments in the pipeline.
  • Map Vacant Retail / Lots / Buildings

There's a lot more that you could research, but if you do the above, you'll be 99% more informed than the other tire-kickers in your area and you'll be better prepared to evaluate a potential investment.

Here's a map I recently made of the Koreatown area of Los Angeles: