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All Forum Posts by: John Nachtigall

John Nachtigall has started 9 posts and replied 305 times.

Post: Do you want to play a game?

John NachtigallPosted
  • Santa Rosa, CA
  • Posts 324
  • Votes 697

Hi

So I am new to REI and one of the things I am doing is just practicing analysis on loopnet listings. I am actually planning on investing with syndicates, but to educate myself I am looking at all aspects of REI. I was searching in my hometown and came across and old convent. I thought it might be a fun exercise to put it out to the community, what would you do to this property. Or would you never buy it even for a $1.

I am not all that creative, so below is my very conservative analysis of turning it into an SRO.   convert 1 of the rooms to a bathroom, so you have 7 small rooms, 1 master with a bath and 2 shared bathrooms for the 7 small rooms.   

Misc information from assessor page

http://www.co.pueblo.co.us/cgi-bin/webatrallbroker...

  • It is zoned commercial retirement home
  • It was bought from the church for $60,000 in Aug 2016, so despite the loopnet description I suspect it is not "rehabbed"
  • They really do only pay $282 in taxes a year
  • The owner is from Denver, so out of town, probably would be happy to make 10-20k for a few month hold.   I bet you could get it for 70-80, but I assumed 100 as worst case
  • Bishop Buswell, who built it, was a really cool guy, I knew him, he was a real staple of the Catholic Church.   My dad used to call him "Buzz Baby" which my Mom thought would earn all of us a front seat in hell  :-)
  • You can do a Google walkaround yourself, but I can tell you the neighborhood is poor working class, but not a crime haven.   Best description is old.
  • I assumed rents of $400 for the small rooms based on a discount from $650-1000 in the houses in the area.   I would be interested in your opinion but that is a huge discount.   You would own the bottom end of the market, even in Pueblo.
  • I bumped the master with the private bath to $500
  • Converting 1 room to a bath loses some revenue, but 8 people sharing 1 bath just seems like too much.   On the other hand your prospective tenets cant be choosers, so your decide.  
  • I tried to overestimate expenses.   For example I assume 1 of the rooms is always vacant every month.  10% for all expenses and about twice what I think you would really pay on utilities.   So in the end operational expenses were 66% of income not the normal 50% estimate.   Pueblo is actually a very inexpensive place to live so 50% is probably a good estimate, but I wanted to be conservative.   
  • 30k for renovation is way conservative especially considering the rooms have plumbing so converting 1 to a bathroom will not involve re-routing lines.
  • I also assumed a loan that was expensive based on SROs being hard to finance. But I did some research, there are FHA loans for SROs. You would find something eventually.
  • I valued the final property at an 8% cap.   Maybe I should have put a 10% cap, but that does not matter to cashflow analysis.   You are not buying this property for appreciation.  

Conclusion

  • It actually cashflows.   I was shocked, even with all the conservative assumptions.   
  • If you estimate expenses at 50% of income, it goes up to 20k NOI and a COC return of 35% (WOW). Actually buy it for 70-80 k and you are talking an immense return.
  • I think the biggest unknown is can you run it as an SRO.   The zoning is commercial retirement, so if all the tenets are over 55 I think you fit into the existing zoning without any change.   Thought?

But I am a rank amateur.   I know you all can do better.   Tell me what you would do with it.

Or, is a property in poor area of a tertiary market doomed to sit forever.   It seems like 1 of the rules that people keep repeating is "buy in upcoming markets".    This is a stable, but poor neighborhood.   It was always this way, and I don't see it changing ever.  

Convent Conversion
  
901 E Evans Ave  
Pueblo CO, 81004  

  
Purchase Price100000 
After Repair Value167,000 
Closing Costs5000 
Estimated Repair30000 
Down Payment20000 
Loan Info80,000 @ 5%, 2 points, 25 years
  
  
7 small 4002800
1 master500500
Total Income 3300
  
Operation Expenses  
Vacancy (12%)400 
CapEx (10%)330 
Water200 
Insurance200 
Repairs (10%)330 
Electricity200 
Garbage200 
Management (10%)330 
Total2190 
  
Loan467.67 
  
Total Expense2657.67 
Total Cash Needed56,600 
NOI13,368 
COC ROI13.70% 
Final Cap Rate8% 
Monthly Cashflow646.33 

Post: Air BnB and VRBO on rough street

John NachtigallPosted
  • Santa Rosa, CA
  • Posts 324
  • Votes 697

@Paolo Ruggieri   Wild idea, consider going to the local woman's shelter/YWCA/social work organizations/churches

They need transition housing and will probably pay you less than market, but pay you directly.   Will not complain about the neighborhood because of circumstances.  I am no tax expert, but if they are a non-profit organization you may be able to take the difference off your taxes.   Have them buy some cheap 2nd hand furniture for pennies to make it furnished or perhaps you both pitch in a little.

Plus, you get to feel good about giving a little back.  When the neighborhood comes back, you can pull it back and do whatever.

Just a crazy thought.

Post: The big mortgage argument

John NachtigallPosted
  • Santa Rosa, CA
  • Posts 324
  • Votes 697

All investments have risk.   That is exactly the point.   So leveraging your investment, be it buying real estate on debt or buying stocks on margin, exacerbates that risk.    That is what leverage does, increase the volatility.   There is no way to maintain leverage without risk, that is the whole point of leverage. 

So if you believe that real estate (or stocks for that matter) are overvalued, you should not be amplifying your risk by using excessive leverage.   Despite what "Rich Dad/Poor Dad" tells you, there is more to being a "asset" on the balance sheet than cash flow.   If your debt is in excess of your property value it is not, by definition, an asset.  

In Miami and Las Vegas, for example, the housing is still 50% below the high point, 7-10 years after the bust.   Those are not "broken" markets like Detroit.  This proves that  20+% market adjustments are not "rare" nor temporary.  

http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/miami.html

http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/las_vegas.ht... 

There is nothing wrong with REI or debt. But like any tool, it can be misused. And not understanding the basic concepts of economics, including the "greater fool fallacy" and selection bias are what allow that misuse. Before the crash, Las Vegas and Miami were considered very strong areas with vibrant economies. Even now, they have come roaring back. But the house prices are still 50% of the highs. So assuming you remained "cash flow positive" for the last 10 years, you have another 20 years (assuming a 30 year fixed rate mortgage) of payments that will in the end net you a negative rate of return around 50%. Maybe -30% if the cash is decent. Bottom line, you can lose money

My point, with no malice intended, is that you need to realistically assess risk.   If you own 5 million in real estate with less than 500k invested, even if you maintain your cash flow (which in a big recession is doubtful), the underlying value of your assets can fall by 20-50% putting you underwater and essentially paying for equity that does not exist.   

Post: The big mortgage argument

John NachtigallPosted
  • Santa Rosa, CA
  • Posts 324
  • Votes 697
It's not really 11 reasons, it's 1 reason. A 3-4% mortgage is less than you get investing that money. They just thought of 11ways of making the same point. And yes, many people including on this board agree. Apparently forgetting the 2007-2008 or 2001 or 1991 or ... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States It's amazing how 'selection bias' works. When you throw out the bad data points any plan looks great. Remember 125% loans because real estate was on an unlimited upward trend and the old rules no longer applied....just like tulips. The reality is that low interest rates actually destabilize the system. Money is so cheap you can easily leverage yourself to the point where even a small perturbation can cause disaster. Everyone here is an adult and can make their own choices. I choose a more conservative strategy, the equity in my home is an 'off limit' capital

Post: Can I go Zero to Hero???

John NachtigallPosted
  • Santa Rosa, CA
  • Posts 324
  • Votes 697

Hi @Bret Rubash.   I am new to BP, so I can't comment intelligently about the real estate, but your post inspired me to ensure you that you can go from nothing to something.   What you lack, at the moment, is credibility.   Just like you have a Credit Score, you have a Credibility Score.   The difference being that you cant look up your Credibility Score.   But in order to succeed in life, be it real estate, normal job, or anything in between, the higher your Credibility Score the farther you will go.   Why do you need Credibility.   At some point you will need to make a deal, talk to a bank, borrow money, or otherwise convince someone to take a chance on you.   If you don't have Credibility, you don't have a deal, it is that simple.   

So you say you want to "succeed" in real estate.    You have to first decide what that means.   You should never start a journey without a destination, and in this case your journey needs a definable goal.   Is it cash flow above $10,000 a month?   Is it net wealth about $1,000,000?   I cant define that for you, you have to define that for yourself.  

Next, you have to decide what you are willing to do to achieve your goal.   What I am about to write below is a long hard trip.   Because you start in a hole with several disadvantages (education, credit score, etc.) you have to realize that your journey will be harder than most.   You know at the moment how hard you have to work to float along subsisting.    To succeed you have to work much harder than that, because "work" is your number 1 asset.   If you are willing to commit to that....for many years before you see a return on that work "investment" then read on.

Regardless of the goal, the first steps are most likely the same.

1.   You need to stabilize your situation.   You need to move into the cheapest place you can stomach.   A spare room off craigslist, your families basement, etc.   Whatever you can do to pay the least amount possible.   

2.   You create a budget and slash to the bone.   No cable for you.   You drive a $1000 beater car with no payments.   Basically you have housing, transportation, internet, phone, food and clothes.   You sell everything else and after you put away $1000 in an emergency fund you pay off debt and/or save for later.   you need internet and phone because your goal of real estate requires them.  probably a better than average clothes budget also because real estate is a "professional" job.

I would tell you your Credibility score is made up of different parts that add together.  You have different levels of control over the different parts.  

  •  Education/Knowledge/Experience:   people with education have credibility.   If I say "Harvard degree" to you in instantly puts your mind to smart and credible.   If I say "30 years experience" it does the same thing.   
  • Wealth: People with wealth have instant credibility.   They should not, but life is unfair, embrace the concept.   If someone with a million dollars asks a bank for a loan, they get more consideration than someone with $10. 
  • Work:  This is going to be your strong suit.   People who work, have credibility.   I had a floor supervisor tell me once that "If someone shows up on-time, sober, works hard and does not steal they are 80% of the way there"    I thought it was really cynical at the time.   Now I think it is more like 90% of the way there.   
  • Other:  People can assign credibility for other reasons.   Celebrity, ability to speak, personal friendship,  race, class, sex, etc.    Most of these will not be changeable by you, so you just need to work on the other areas.   see above statement on fairness of life. 

3.  You said you don't have a formal education, so that does not add to your score.   You need to gain knowledge and experience a different way.    Here is 1 idea.    You go to a large realtor office in your area, dress well, make an appointment with the office manager in advance.   You make the following proposition.

"I want to change my life and I want to use real estate to do it.   But I don't have knowledge.   So I would like to make you the following proposition.  I will work as an upaid intern in your office for 30 days.   I will do whatever it takes to make your lives easier.   In fact, I take this so seriously that I will even make getting rid of me easy.   After 30 days I will leave, you don't have to say anything, unless you want me to stay.   I will work whatever hours you like outside of my normal job."

People rarely pass up free help and you proactively addressed his number 1 concern  which is if you don't work out, your are effectively "pre-fired".   Now before you do this it would be ideal to get a job on 3rd shift or late night so you can work a bunch during normal working hours, but regardless, you give them as many hours as you can.   You have 30 days to make yourself invaluable.    You cheerfully perform all tasks, proactively look for ways to help, and passionately learn as you go.   keep a journal you carry with you at all times.   write down things you learn as you go, you will need to refer to this in the future so you might as well stay organized.   You will learn how real estate works, about the people in your area, about reputation, about contacts, about everything.   You are exchanging your labor (work) for education and experience.   

You may need to do this more than once, but ideally, at 25-28 days you go to the office manager and remind him your last day is soon and thank him for his time.   Tell him you learned so much and really like the office.    Ask if he is convinced you are a positive asset to the team.   If he thinks so, ask if he might consider a more permanent arrangement (i.e. a job).   If not then rinse and repeat at a different real estate agency until they do.   

Now if this was a movie, this is the part where they make a montage of you training.   Like Rocky you get better and better as time goes on in your new job.   The reason they show it as a montage in the movie is because it is critically important, but very boring.   You will spend 2-3 years working to learn the business.   Maybe earn your license, maybe not depending on your goal.  All this time living like a monk, saving every cent.   If you dont think about quitting this plan several times, you are probably not doing it right.   But at the end of 2-3 years you now have experience and work and contacts and a starting pot of money.   Simply put, you now have credibility.

Now you can get a loan, or negotiate with sellers, or understand how to evaluate properties.   And as a bonus you have an in-depth knowledge of your area.

I dont know if this will help you.    I hope some or all of it does.   I wish you luck, but remember that the harder you work the less you need luck.