All Forum Posts by: John Nachtigall

Stop feeding the troll.   He is a bragging in a landlord forum about all the lawsuits he has won against landlords...it is obviously just to get a rise out of everyone.

Let it go.  Let him be an "elite" tenet.  

I have not seen this discussed on the site yet, but what about a program like leaselock

http://leaselock.com/

I listened to the Wheelbarrow Profits podcast about them, it is basically for exactly this situation.   The tenet pays for the insurance, about 1 month rent or less, and in the case of any default they pay the landlord the rent.   So It is basically a non-refundable deposit the same size as you would take normally, but it guarantees payments for the life of the lease

Seems like a good deal for everyone.

@Mark Smith

Good Choice, now do the hard part.   Live below your means and start saving.   I would suggest automatic deposits into an account like Wealthfront, even small amounts like $50, or a Brokerage account that automatically buys index funds every month...so you never see the money.   After you have 6 months of cash saved in emergency funds that is.

I automatically deduct $400 every payday into my Schwab account and buy the in-house S&P 500 index, with no fee.   So it is completely free to invest, the fund has fees of 0.002% or less, and I dont have to think about it.   Then as it grows you can decide what you want to do with it (real estate, keep in stocks, etc.)

Good Luck.

You did not give the price, but I assume it is 1 million or north of that.   $1000 is 0.1% of that.   

So would I pay 0.1% to get an experts opinion on a 1 million dollar purchase, even if worst case I ignore it.....I am going with yes.  

My opinion is that you were right in your first sentence, it is "impossible to know".   Everything after that is irrelevant.  Just since 2008, if you had been paying attention to certain experts 

• There was going to be a double dip in 2010 (S&P fell from March to June)
• There was going to be a double dip in 2011 (S&P fell from April to Nov, total return only 2%)
• Market was Frothy in 2012, 2013, 2014....repent now. Euro will kills us...China slowing down
• We are well past the average between recessions now in 2015 and only returned 1.5% for the year, it is surely over now. (don't call me Shirley)
• Really Frothy in 2016, elections, euro (still), refugees, China in a bubble etc.   I see the end, book it.
• 2017 is the one for sure, Trump was elected, oil is low priced, Fed is raising rates, flaming hail, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria.

Fact:   The economy will fall into recession again

Fact: No one knows when or how

Suggestion: Invest such that the timing of the market is not a factor, if it is a good investment now it will be a good investment in 10 years when you can add 10 to all the numbers above and repeat reading the same articles.   Don't over leverage, Don't leave yourself without an emergency fund, and stop trying to time the market.

Can you still apply to win the car they are giving away?   Probably a brand new 1988 model.

Starts for both multifamily and residential are ramping up at the same pace as previous recoveries (look at the slope in the graphs) it is just the base was depressed by the depth of the 2008 crash below previous crashes.     It is coming back and cities can only try and slow it down, they wont stop it.   For every San Francisco there is a Huston willing to let building happen.  

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST5F

It is just going to take a bit for it to catch up.   Everyone is still gun shy. 

@Cody L. you are absolutely right, buyers like me do allow you to purchase under market.   

   - Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.   Warren Buffett

I am still in the "not knowing" category.   I think I am better taking risks in other parts of real estate, which is super cool, there is plenty for everyone.

@Norberto Villanueva

I appreciate your logic, but if you were my agent what would you suggest I offer?   This would be based on the listing alone mind you.  Does everyone just offer list price and the negotiation happens after diligence, because that seems bad for everyone.   I get that it is inconvenient, but so is automatically having to sign a contact to buy just to inspect the merchandise.   I am honestly curious, what do you tell your clients to offer?

@Jay Hinrichs

Interesting.  So without looking or financials how do you decide how much to offer?   I am a newbie to be sure, but I don't see how you can make a enforceable contract offer blind?

And there is a lot of risk to the seller because if they get to the inspection and walk away (through contingencies) then you have to start over again without even the earnest money.

I was most certainly not a cash buyer, so maybe hot markets are just not my cup of tea.   Back to syndication for me.  

They didn't even bother to ask me for POF. They insisted it had to be an ACCEPTED offer, not just the offer itself. Again, this is residential, not commercial. Who offers on a house without looking inside?

I am sure that the seller did not want to inconvenience the tenets.   On the other hand, I am not the one getting a divorce and having to fire sale my assets.   It was priced at 2/3rds the  market rate with a statement that rents were "several hundred dollars" under market.    So without an inspection or financials (not even a rent roll) how could anyone make reasonable offer.    Is there something wrong with it or is it a clusterf***.  I am sure I could put in contingencies to tie up the property without making a real commitment, but I did not want to be "that guy".   

I suppose the "bias to action" they advocate on all the podcasts would have had me offer full list price with a contingency that I have 30 days AFTER they get me the full financials.   That would tie them up till infinity.   I just could not do it, I suppose my risk tolerance was just too low in the end.