Originally posted by@Brian Z.:
Originally posted by @Rob Ferdinand:
Thanks, Brian. Great info. What is the average annual rent increase you use in these models?
I usually do multiple but simple models using rates between 2% to 5%, so I could see what the return looks like between conservative to aggressive. I think 5% is as high as I would go. 3% is probably a good conservative average. This year is obviously tricky because we could see a little more inventory and coupling with high unemployment. I anticipate we're going to hold steady for the rest of the year at least this is what I'm seeing so far.
I do the same thing for ROI. Even at 3% annual increase, we're looking at around double digit ROI in the long haul. I don't do models for other cities, but I do look at similarities between large international metros with no land to build. Places like NYC, SF, Hong Kong, and London are all in a similar situation and you could see continuous increase without slowing down.
Btw, as much as I like running numbers, I also remind myself not to let myself get into analysis paralysis. The market won't wait for us to redo our models. I think this is why having a RE license helps because it gives us just a little more room to make mistakes.
Hi there, interesting post that I was reading because I always follow Boston trends as grew up there and recently sold a property there.
Just wanted to note that nothing is guaranteed in high cost cities especially year by year. I think Hong Kong has been haemorrhaging value lately and I live in London so can share some numbers I was just running today because we are deciding whether to do more property here or in the US:
This compares our area of London to some super prime areas: N1 / Islington which might be like Cambridge or Somerville and Kensington which is like Beacon Hill or Back Bay or maybe even higher end e.g there are oligarchs and Royalty. Our area is more like JP or Roslindale
I was a bit shocked by my results -- even though I had heard from posh friends who bought in central London around the time of the Brexit referendum that they negotiated discounts of 10% the day after the vote and since then their property fell another 10%.
But I was kind of shocked to see the flat / negative return over 7 years in those 2 posh areas. These are all averages and I know smart people made fortunes in the top areas the whole time but imagine being a flipper and the next year having a drop of 22%. This is why I like to try to diversify cities/countries even if it's not easy on a day to day basis. (Like almost everyone else on BP it seems) I'm looking at southern and mountain areas of the US right now for future opps
Total return of £100
since start 2014 |
Our area |
N1 |
Kens |
+63% |
-2.5% |
-9% |
Year |
Our area |
N1 (Islington) |
Kensington and surrounding |
2014 |
14% |
15% |
23% |
2015 |
16% |
6% |
-13% |
2016 |
16% |
0% |
16% |
2017 |
4% |
3% |
-14% |
2018 |
3% |
1% |
10% |
2019 |
-4% |
-4% |
-1% |
2020 |
3% |
-19% |
-22% |