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All Forum Posts by: Jennifer S.

Jennifer S. has started 9 posts and replied 159 times.

Post: London property prices - bit of a shocker here

Jennifer S.Posted
  • Investor
  • London
  • Posts 160
  • Votes 82

Hi all, I was just on a US thread where the theory of the case was roughly that gateway cities (NY, HK, London) are always a good bet. I posted these numbers there because I'm always interested in relative value between US and UK. These are just in GBP terms so imagine comparing how someone would have done putting money to work in a US city like Denver or LA over this period and getting the pick up of USD strength.

This is what I wrote: Just wanted to note that nothing is guaranteed in high cost cities especially year by year. I think Hong Kong has been haemorrhaging value lately and I live in London so can share some numbers I was just running today because we are deciding whether to do more property here or in the US:

I was a bit shocked by my results -- even though I had heard from posh friends who bought in central London around the time of the Brexit referendum that they negotiated discounts of 10% the day after the vote and since then their property fell another 10%.

But I was kind of shocked to see the flat / negative return over 7 years in those 2 posh areas. These are all averages and I know smart people made fortunes in the top areas the whole time but imagine being a flipper and the next year having a drop of 22%. This is why I like to try to diversify cities/countries even if it's not easy on a day to day basis. (Like almost everyone else on BP it seems) I'm looking at southern and mountain areas of the US right now for future opps

Source = Foxtons

Total return of £100 since start 2014
Our area (outer London)N1Kens
   +63%-2.5%-9%
YearOur areaN1 (Islington)Kensington and surrounding
2014   14%15%23%
2015    16%6%-13%
2016   16%0%16%
2017   4%3%-14%
2018   3%1%10%
2019   -4%-4%-1%
2020   3%-19%-22%

Post: Boston refuses to cash flow

Jennifer S.Posted
  • Investor
  • London
  • Posts 160
  • Votes 82
Originally posted by@Brian Z.:
Originally posted by @Rob Ferdinand:

Thanks, Brian. Great info. What is the average annual rent increase you use in these models? 

I usually do multiple but simple models using rates between 2% to 5%, so I could see what the return looks like between conservative to aggressive. I think 5% is as high as I would go. 3% is probably a good conservative average. This year is obviously tricky because we could see a little more inventory and coupling with high unemployment. I anticipate we're going to hold steady for the rest of the year at least this is what I'm seeing so far. 

I do the same thing for ROI. Even at 3% annual increase, we're looking at around double digit ROI in the long haul. I don't do models for other cities, but I do look at similarities between large international metros with no land to build. Places like NYC, SF, Hong Kong, and London are all in a similar situation and you could see continuous increase without slowing down.

Btw, as much as I like running numbers, I also remind myself not to let myself get into analysis paralysis. The market won't wait for us to redo our models. I think this is why having a RE license helps because it gives us just a little more room to make mistakes. 

Hi there, interesting post that I was reading because I always follow Boston trends as grew up there and recently sold a property there. 

Just wanted to note that nothing is guaranteed in high cost cities especially year by year. I think Hong Kong has been haemorrhaging value lately and I live in London so can share some numbers I was just running today because we are deciding whether to do more property here or in the US:

This compares our area of London to some super prime areas: N1 / Islington which might be like Cambridge or Somerville and Kensington which is like Beacon Hill or Back Bay or maybe even higher end e.g there are oligarchs and Royalty. Our area is more like JP or Roslindale

I was a bit shocked by my results -- even though I had heard from posh friends who bought in central London around the time of the Brexit referendum that they negotiated discounts of 10% the day after the vote and since then their property fell another 10%. 

But I was kind of shocked to see the flat / negative return over 7 years in those 2 posh areas. These are all averages and I know smart people made fortunes in the top areas the whole time but imagine being a flipper and the next year having a drop of 22%. This is why I like to try to diversify cities/countries even if it's not easy on a day to day basis. (Like almost everyone else on BP it seems) I'm looking at southern and mountain areas of the US right now for future opps

Total return of £100 since start 2014
Our area N1 Kens
   +63% -2.5% -9%
Year Our area N1 (Islington) Kensington and surrounding
2014    14% 15% 23%
2015    16% 6% -13%
2016    16% 0% 16%
2017    4% 3% -14%
2018    3% 1% 10%
2019    -4% -4% -1%
2020    3% -19% -22%

Hi @Kennath Walpita thanks so much for your reply. Your experience sounds awesome! I was thinking of starting with someone from the local area given that the lot is a bit unusual eg the creek and having to go vertical. But I will save your info, thanks again for reaching out. If I ever get richer I could look at doing something in LA ;)

Hi all, I'm contemplating a return back to US and have my eye on Colorado. I've visited CO fairly often in the past. I'm probably priced out of Denver as I want to stay at a low debt level. I'm looking at making a cash offer on this land but I need help running the numbers on what to build and how to assess the risk of the creek. I'm not sure a buyer's agent would bother with this low purchase price but are there other folks I could pay for advice on it (architect, zoning expert etc). Side note I'm more interested in quirky walkable areas vs outer suburban ones but also want to be fairly safe in terms of crime. I haven't built ground up before but I've done renovations in 3 different countries, including in an emerging market one so I hope to be a bit resilient and roll with the punches. If this deal falls through still happy to connect with people who can advise me on these kind of matters. 



Listing: E San Miguel St Colorado Springs, CO 80903

Post: London - UK - new starters

Jennifer S.Posted
  • Investor
  • London
  • Posts 160
  • Votes 82

Hi! Welcome. I've been off biggerpockets for a few months but I'd be happy to organise a virtual UK property Zoom meet up if there is interest? I know people have Zoom fatigue but we may have folks on here from different regions. Topics to discuss: how is the market reacting to Covid including impact of WFH trend, what are your strategies to prepare for Brexit, to LLC or not / mortgage interest questions, etc. Happy to add further topics? Hope everyone is well.

Post: Is new construction of small homes smart for rental?

Jennifer S.Posted
  • Investor
  • London
  • Posts 160
  • Votes 82

Hi! I couldn't tag L R either but I'd love to hear more like how long did construction take and was $42k all in cost of all construction? That sounds great. I think alot of folks would be interested in smaller space living if it provides time freedom. Thanks for sharing!

Post: Will people leave cities post COVID 19?

Jennifer S.Posted
  • Investor
  • London
  • Posts 160
  • Votes 82

@Jon S., that digital nomad plan sounds awesome and it is something I would love to be able to do in the future. One thing you may want to research before going abroad is to check how your travel/health insurance would work. If you haven't bought a policy yet, there may be a coronavirus exclusions in the new policy meaning a lot of things like flight cancellation / extra hotel costs due to borders closing etc may not be covered. More importantly, if you need medical care for coronavirus those costs may be excluded. It's unlikely you would need that but not being covered either would be problematic. Another point is whether the US government advice not to travel abroad invalidates any part of the policy if you already had an existing policy. It may be all ok but these are some things to iron out before you go. I was hoping to visit family in the US soon-ish and I have had to read about this stuff. Sorry to be over cautious but it's better than getting a big medical bill

Post: Investing in the US as a foreign investor

Jennifer S.Posted
  • Investor
  • London
  • Posts 160
  • Votes 82

Hello Juan, I'm based in the UK and have invested in the past in the US. I know rules in the UK are different to Spain but here are the types of things to consider: 

how does Spain tax offshore income? How does it tax offshore capital gains? By offshore I mean, US for you. For example does the Spanish-US tax treaty recognise income/capital gains in in the same way? 

Since I am domiciled in the UK, my offshore investments in the US are brought back onshore here and for example I can't treat US mortgage interest as a full expense. An LLC in the US would insulate me from that problem but then it opens a new problem that US LLCs don't have a strict legal treatment here. There was a UK Supreme Court case a few years ago to address the situation of a UK tax payer with a Delaware structure who was getting taxed TWICE (meaning in both countries) on the same income. Hopefully Spain is more clear cut on this issue but my understanding is that the UK is usually slightly lower tax and lower complexity than Spain, so this is just to raise some of the questions to get answered before you pull the trigger. The next issue is finding an accountant who truly understands the tax implications in both jurisdictions. I am still looking for this but it tends to be pretty high net worth people who need this so the advice is expensive. However I still think the US as a real estate destination may be worth all this hassle! I was given the name of a US CPA who is used to dealing with foreign investors by @Charles Carillo and I'm watching a video of this CPA. I already learned something new today on it about estate tax, so already added value to me. 

Also forgot to ask: does Spain have a wealth tax that applies to offshore assets? This is separate to the above listed income/capital gains point. Some countries have an ongoing wealth tax based on the property's value. 

Post: Real estate investing in UK

Jennifer S.Posted
  • Investor
  • London
  • Posts 160
  • Votes 82

Hi all, thanks for this thread. I'm based in the UK and looking to see where to invest in 2020. Does anyone know of any good in person meet ups? (When such things resume). The property events in London I see creep me out a bit--look very hard sell. I might be missing the better events. 

In the UK I'm more interested in short term opportunities as I don't want more long term GBP exposure. In the US I'm looking at all sorts of stuff but it depends on tax issues. 

NOTE! to anyone who hasn't yet established UK domicile: Apparently there may be things you can do before this happens that are tax efficient. Once you slide into it like I did (was just busy and working) it opens up a big can of worms. This point relates to people who have real estate outside of the UK.

Hi @Owen Franks, hope you have been doing well amidst the current global challenges! I wanted to just come back and let you know a new piece of info I just learned from a video on tax shared with me by another BP member. There may be big issues around having a non US citizen hold US property with respect to the estate tax ($60k threshold vs $11million). There seem to be ways to mitigate - so something for you to ask when the time is right - but just wanted to share that in case you are pursuing the avenue of your wife having the property in her name. Secondly, if she is domiciled in the UK, she may run into the problem of how the mortgage interest is treated back in the UK, if the property is not held in a US LLC. This may not matter in the beginning if her marginal tax rate isn't too high-but I don't know what it might look like after a few properties add up and normal income is added to it. No tax advice here --I am not an accountant just sharing potential issues to iron out. BTW I did reach out to one accountant here with stated expertise in both US and UK tax but I didn't hear back at all. So I grind on! :)