All Forum Posts by: Jennifer S.

@Jeremy Hill, thanks! Yes things are starting to get more interesting but before acting I need to do a bit more work on demographics. I think the pivot to the burbs is not just COVID but normal family formation of the Milennials plus underpricing of burbs vs city. 

So I want to have a better grip on how many more 20 somethings there really are right now who would be interested in renting or condo conversion purchases in the coming 2 years. There is so much chatter about COVID on bp but not as much on the demographic piece (are we headed towards a dip in 20 somethings). 

If you combine the possible demographic dip with the realization that college might be overpriced vs for example going into the trades, I am not sure how to find the floor in prices right now. 

On the other hand I think the good Boston schools could fill their seats easily with foreign students once restrictions are lifted and that would swamp any demographic dip

Hi both, I'm targeting an October Zoom to focus on the UK market, let me know if you are interested (I'll email you as well so you see it).

I'll invite someone I just met electronically from my business school who posted in an alumni group: "I've used the same broker a handful of times now for buy-to-let & residential purchases and remortgages. I've just completed on my new purchase, and the market is very challenging right now so I would recommend the following adviser who can steer you in the right direction"

Interesting tip from someone who has done investing in London

@Echo Shimix, welcome! There are a few of us on here trying to gather some critical mass :)  I am trying to organise a UK focused Zoom in October, if you are interested. I have someone from my business school (not yet on BP) also interested possibly and he's done some investing in London, more than I have. Direct message me if you're interested.

About leaseholds vs freeholds yes this is a big topic--the Duke of Westminster "owns" half of London it's said. But it seems like people navigate that issue fairly well--you have to watch out for super cheap flats that may have an upcoming lease expiry that will need renegotiation.

One reason people love having a house is that you can make alterations only needing the council's permission as opposed to also needing freeholders permission. But I've heard of plenty of folks making money with flats / leasehold so it can be done.

@Jeremy Hill check out redfin: 23 Thornley 02125 down from $1.7m to $1.3m after one month on market, although in the notes they say "Property generates over 104k in annual income"...I wonder if it meant property generatED....

now that I caught up with my notifications I have seen some price drops though not too many of that size

@Jeremy Hill

@Philip Ganz, thanks for that. I only just subscribed yesterday to MLS updates via zillow and redfin for Boston multi families but so far I don't see utter distress in pricing. I guess folks have enough reserves to bide some time at least.

@Philip Ganz, thanks for this input. I value lenders' input very highly since it's real data based on real investment decisions. 

Are you seeing particular trends in vacancies across Boston neighborhoods areas? 

I've long felt that the walkable / charming / affordable suburbs had become a bit underpriced relative to the City (which was super hard for me to admit as I've always been a huge City booster) but if the City is now dropping in price I may start to get interested again. 

Originally posted by @Jarrod Kohl:

 Thanks Jarrod! Yes I agree that Boston was already well positioned as a Silicon Valley of the East (along with NY and Washington DC), but what I'm trying to figure out is what is "already in the price" and the marginal future growth. Some posters in the past had pointed to financial services as a future growth engine for Boston and this I am not so sure about, unless they mean low cost fin tech and insurance company disruption / innovation. Then I have my big worries on biotech which I outlined in a (overly) long prior post. Yes it's awesome that companies like Moderna may save the world but I think there is a regulatory shadow coming on any kind of expensive medical product or service in the coming years, whichever party is in power. See that it was Trump who put the eviction ban on until the end of the year perhaps surprising some older style Country Club type GOP folks--he and Republicans have also mentioned more price caps on pharma. When both parties agree on something it's more likely to happen, and nothing much even happens these days in Congress. 

I think the anti science, anti elite, populist wave that is all over the US, could really be a risk factor for all pharma. I could certainly be wrong but I am not sure I want to spend >$1m+ on a 3 family property in the Boston area that is plugged into the pharma theme. Hence why I'm looking out for sources of growth in Boston that are not old style finance and not pharma/biotech. There are a bunch of stories about tech expansion in the Seaport, as opposed to Kendall Sq only, that may throw up some interesting opportunities in for example Savin Hill. It's already expensive but I imagine it's cheaper than Cambridge/Somerville and one could cycle/scooter to the Seaport. Maybe they will even develop a small ferry.

So to sum up I am not bearish on Boston, I just have lingering fears about reliance on biotech for future growth

Hi all, appreciate this is an old post but I recently caught up with an old friend from Boston and they walked me through some bull case points that I hadn't considered. I wanted to share these.

I had been concerned about Boston’s reliance on biotech and old style “active management” financial services, but the friend noted there is significant growth as well in Silicon Valley type tech. For example Facebook and Amazon’s growing presence in the Seaport. I had the impression that tech engineers mainly headed for Silicon Valley but the friend said that increasingly some tech talent is happy to stay on the East Coast. He made the point that the number of universities that produce tech talent on the East Coast is higher than on the West Coast. I have no idea about that, but something interesting to scout out as you make your Boston investment decisions. This person is very “long” on Boston in terms of personal real estate so take it with a grain of salt, but it did sound compelling.

I haven't done a massive amount of research yet on this but it feels (anecdotally) like 2007 where the cracks were appearing, there were already some bank failures but the real storm was still a year or two off. With very few foreclosures happening though because of moratoriums it's a bit different to 07 where from memory Florida was already starting to crater. Recall in the film the Big Short that it took a while for the Short to unfold and many investors wanted to pull their money. Each crisis is unique but it doesn't feel like the full storm is here yet. I'm waiting to see what happens to all the debt that is exempt from moratoriums eg commercial. There is so much dry powder on the sidelines though. I have been trying to buy land thinking it would be the first to be hit but I'm getting no where so far. Regarding the debt inflation thesis what I can't figure out is why a country like Japan with an even higher government debt level than the US, at least at the federal level, has had few consequences so far. There were people in the market putting trades on in 2013 that would profit from a run on the Yen and I think several of those funds no longer exist. The older I get the more it feels like everything I learned in my Econ classes just doesn't work anymore. I just continue with frugality and caution but I know I should be more daring 

@AJ Singh, thanks yes I got that mixed up - I have all these different tax and visa programs swirling around in my head :)  I'm glad for them though, they seem like a nice family