Originally posted by @Richard Dunlop:
@Jennifer Streamer
I was on the run last night when I acknowledged your post but I did want to answer your questions in more detail. I agree with the points you are making and they correlate well with the points I have been making.
The article you posted has the best proof I’ve seen so let me pull out all the numbers to illustrate the points you made and that I have been making.
http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20150615/NEWS/150619910/realcomp-median-home-sale-prices-rose-15-2-percent-year-over-year-in
One Year June 2014 to May 2015 gains in Median Sales Price
Wayne County (Mostly Detroit) 43.1% from $80,000 to $114,500
Macomb County 9.6% from $123,000 to $134,825
Livingston County8.6% from $197,950 to $215,000
Oakland County5.9% from $193,600 to $$205,000
O ne quibble - I wouldn't say that Detroit is most of Wayne County. In 2014, Wayne County's population was 1,764,804 vs around 700,000 for Detroit. So a million people in Wayne County live outside of Detroit. Wayne County is 612 square miles and Detroit is around 143.
Whenever I look at pricing statistics for housing, I try to do a reality check by tracking several individual houses that have been bought and sold in that time frame. A large number of distressed homes suddenly being sold could pull the average price down. As the distressed homes are being cleared from the market, non-distressed homes are what remains, increasing the average sales price.
Hmmm... not sure I'm explaining myself well. I'll try this - A nicely updated 3/2 ranch in Trenton, Michigan may have sold for 114,500 on average this year. It probably sold for 112,500 last year. It may sell for 116,500 next year. That particular house, in an updated condition, would never have sold for 80,000 (last years average for Wayne County). So that house did not experience 43.1% appreciation, but rather 2%. The large number of distressed homes sold in past years pulled down the statistical average selling price for the region.
I have doubts that Wayne County (outside of Detroit) will appreciate more quickly that Oakland County on an individual house basis because few high income earners deliberately relocate there. We're a good example. I grew up and lived in Riverview for most of my life. My husband and I lived there after we got married. Riverview has great schools, beautiful parks, and houses cost half what they do in Royal Oak. But there are very few jobs in our fields within a 15 minute commute. Sure, there are doctors, lawyers and teachers scattered around. But it's a pretty blue collar area, overall. So we moved north of the city to save on commuting time.
All that said, it's still possible to do well with buy and hold in Wayne County. I have a friend who owns homes in Lincoln park. Every 18 months, she brings in enough rent to cover the entire original purchase price of the home!
But since we're focusing on Detroit in this thread, I'll try to bring my focus back there :-) But the context of all the surrounding areas is important! I would without a doubt live in downtown, midtown, or Palmer Woods, or Boston Edison over and above Lincoln Park, Hazel Park, Eastpoint or Ecorse. I'd use the money I saved on housing to send my kids to Cranbrook. (I'll talk myself into it if I'm not careful!)