Alex, one of the key assumptions your blog friend makes about dividend growth investing is the past track record of rising dividends will continue. In other words, either you or he can accurately predict which dividend stocks will perform better than the market.
If 97% of professional investors can't beat the market, what's your edge?
Not to sound harsh, but beating the market over an extended time period is next to impossible. Throw out this comment if you are lucky.
Worse, I see a lot of dividend investors who chase yield while ignoring all the risks that come with a concentrated portfolio. If you own less than 50 stocks, you have a concentrated portfolio.
For example, I know a guy who lives off of his General Electric (GE) dividends for retirement. His income cratered during the 2008 crash when they slashed the dividend from $1.24/share to .46/share. Today, the dividend is .95/share.
By the way, he owned a substantial amount of shares since he inherited them from his Grandfather who worked there all his life as a senior engineer.
I believe, he was cashing in around $35,000 per year in dividends and then his income was cut by more than half along with the value of his investment.
Keep in mind, GE was a "dividend aristocrat" and one of the first companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average back in the day when the Dow was only 12 stocks compared to 30 today.
Real estate is a business. It offers higher returns than stocks due leverage, high barriers of entry along with large capital inflows as you maintain the asset. All of this can be mitigated by hiring the right property manager, buying for cash flow and maintaining the proper cash reserves for roofs, appliances, plumbing and heating.
It's not a set it and forget it investment like buying index funds (less risky than buying individual stocks).
If you believe in set it and forget it for individual stocks, consider the GE example or other dividend powerhouses like Enron, MCI Worldcom, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Citigroup, and on and on and on.......
Your famous blogger mentioned how the yield on cost will easily surpass a turn key rental.
In my experience, nothing could be further from the truth.
As rents rise with inflation, your yield continues to accelerate. Unlike a company that decides to cut their dividend, my rent yield continues to climb. This was my experience during the 2008 crash. When my investment portfolio fell 50%, my real estate portfolio fell by 10-15% in value, but my rents continued to march higher.
I just looked up one of my rentals that I purchased in 2000. The annual yield on cost 19.3%. This number does not include other returns like appreciation, principal payments by tenants and tax write offs.
I'm not a turn key investor since I like value add deals and live in an area where it makes sense to buy and hold for cash flow and modest appreciation.
All investments have risks. I just don't want you to get the impression that dividend growth investing is all unicorns and rainbows.