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All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

Account Closed has started 15 posts and replied 43 times.

Post: Is there a SHORTCUT TO WEALTH?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Tampa, FL
  • Posts 51
  • Votes 53
Originally posted by @Shiloh Lundahl:

Many people invest in real estate in order to create passive income and eventually become wealthy enough to not have to work a regular job for the rest of their lives.

I want to pose a philosophical question. Is there a shortcut to wealth?

Absolutely. The FASTEST shortcut to true wealth is canceling cable TV and disassociating from as much what does not matter, as fast as possible. 

Post: Door Knocking Today - Results

Account ClosedPosted
  • Tampa, FL
  • Posts 51
  • Votes 53
Originally posted by @Jason Krawitz:

Hello All - I spent the day door knocking on pre-forclosures and thought I'd share my results. 

I knocked on 12 doors, talked to 4 owners + 1 Facebook lead. Drove about 110 miles and actually had quite a bit of fun. I left hand written notes on every door/mail-box that didn't answer. Here are some detailed results.  

1. First door knock by myself ever. Nice lady answered the door. Ended up talking for 20 minutes. Her husband has had 4 back surgeries in a row and hasn't been able to work. She was laid off after 20 years in corporate job. She just found another job. She has two kids. One is 14 and the other is under 5. She THANKED ME for knocking on her door! She was very open and said she definitely wants to sell and move. She has already filed bankruptcy and she owes 95k on 1st mortage and 25k on 2nd. ARV aproximately 175k (Zillow - I'll run detailed MLS comps tonight). I left my name and #. She's going to talk to her husband and call me. I asked if it would be okay if I called her in a week if I haven't heard from her by then. She said yes and asked me to be sure to do so.

I saw a case study on the internet and I'm just regurgitating what I saw in that case study as it was truly fascinating.  I'm no expert - not in any way, shape, or form. 

Ok, so some investors encountered a situation where a seller was just about fully leveraged on a $500k home ($300k 1st montage + $180k 2nd mortgage).  The guys owed the $180k get $0 if the first lien holder forecloses. 

So, the investor thought it was a no brainer for them to want to work out a deal. They figured they'd get in for $390k total, put $15k into it (which is all they ultimately put into it) and flip it really quick.  

The second lien holder said "piss off."  Why? No one knows...  

Then the investors got really creative. They worked out a scheme (in a legal sense) to essentially take the position of the first lien holder and foreclose on themselves. 

They got the first bank out of the way, and thanks to a private money investor, Billy Seller now OWED THEM $300k. Then, they had Billy Seller sell the property to a "sister company" subject to the $300k owed.  

The sister COMPANY promptly defaulted.

Due to the fact that it was a COMMERCIAL deal, foreclosure was lighting quick - 10 days. 

They foreclosed while the second lien holder scrambled to save the deal in the 11th hour. No dice. They lost. 

In the end, they sold the property after putting $15k into it for a $120,000 net profit if I recall correctly. 

It was the most creative deal I've ever heard of and figured I would share as this deal really opened my eyes to how really creative you can get in this space. 

Post: How did you find / locate your creative RE attorney?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Tampa, FL
  • Posts 51
  • Votes 53

Hello all,

I am struggling to find an attorney who will work with investors on creative real estate finance deals.  I've cold called attorneys and have been chewed out about anti equity skimming laws and / or being questioned about my maintaining an RE license or lack thereof.

Any help in tracking down an attorney would be appreciated.  Additionally, understanding WHY it's so hard for investors to find attorneys would be helpful as well. I'm baffled. 

Thanks! 

Post: Offering value to a mentor

Account ClosedPosted
  • Tampa, FL
  • Posts 51
  • Votes 53
  1. Ask him "what he needs?" Find out his investment criteria. Know more about his investment criteria than you do your own.
  2. Go find him a deal.
  3. Offer him the deal.
  4. Never mention compensation - allow him to bring it up.

If he's a man of good character, he'll bring it up and offer you SOME sort of compensation for your time, and a project you can work on with him.  

Ultimately, MOST mentors are happy to mentor but in the back of their minds they want to know if the time invested in you, will translate to cash in their pockets or rent rolls on their books. 

The mentor / mentee relationship often result in JVs' / partnerships being done which is why most people capable of being mentors invest the time in the first place.  

/my two cents

Post: J Scott's Recession Proof Real Estate Investing: Ask Me Anything!

Account ClosedPosted
  • Tampa, FL
  • Posts 51
  • Votes 53
Originally posted by @J Scott:
Originally posted by @Andrew Angerer:

Hey J,

Fan of your books and other works, I just finished reading your guide to estimating ARV ebook. I know that the '08 recession was ( partially ) caused by sub-prime mortgages, where as today, there are few sub-prime mortgages on houses but many sub-prime auto loans. My question is, do you think the next recession will look similar or different from the last in terms of how easy it will be to find foreclosed properties/ short sales?

I talk a lot about this in the book, but here are my general thoughts...

A lot of real estate investors who have come along since 2008 tend to think about real estate being the root cause of any market downtown -- in 2008, the mortgage crisis destroyed the economy and they assume this is how it typically works.  So, they judge the strength of the market (both real estate and the economy) by looking at real estate data and statistics and saying, "Real estate is strong...all is good!" or "Real is weak...all is bad!"

But, in actuality, for most recessions, real estate isn't a cause.  Real estate is just the unlucky economic sector that gets dragged along because other parts of the economy are struggling.  In 2001, it was the tech bubble that lead the downturn.  In the late 80s, is was the S&L crisis.  In the 70s, it was oil that caused negative ripples through the economy.  

In most cases, real estate goes down during a recession not because there are systemic issues in the real estate market (like in 2008) but because the economy is crap, interest rates are high, consumers are overloaded with debt, people are losing jobs, etc.  No matter how sound the real estate market might be, if these other things are happening, real estate is going to get hurt because homeowners are struggling to pay their bills and renters aren't in a position to buy.

So, looking at today's housing market and saying, "All is good because real estate looks good..." is not sound economic forecasting.  Real estate is a "lagging indicator," meaning that it's going to look good even as the economy turns down.  A few months after the economy starts to suffer, we'll start to see the real effects on the real estate industry.  By the time people start saying, "Real estate is looking bad..." the economy will likely already be showing major cracks.

Which leads me to the answer to your question...  :)

I don't think there are any major systemic issues with the real estate market right now (again, unlike 2008).  The industry is still pretty sound, at least in the single family residential sector (I could argue that multi-family has some other issues).  So, whether we see a big drop in real estate and whether we see a lot of really cheap properties this time around will be highly dependent on how bad the broader economy is.  

How high unemployment goes.  How high interest rates go.  How much further inflation increases.  How badly GDP gets hit.  What happens with consumer debt.  Etc.

And unfortunately, nobody knows the answer to that question.  Personally, I don't think things will be as bad as 2008, but I'm just guessing (like everyone else, including all the economists).  The big concern I would have for our economy right now is consumer debt.  This is just unsustainable, and I have a feeling that default on consumer debt (and student loan debt) could lead to a big economic snowball...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSL

But again, good economists will admit they have no idea how bad the next downturn will be.  Could be relatively small, like 2001 (or smaller).  Could be big, like 2008 (or bigger).  But anyone who tells you they know is lying to you... :)

Amazing thread.  Courageous post inasmuch as a lot people simply do not want to hear anything about a recession.  I'm chiming in my 2 cents here...

I like to fancy myself a "crack pot economist and economic tin foil hat wearer" but, I try to base my craziness on cold hard facts.  That said, the next recession will make the last one look like a walk in the park.

Each day we do NOT start the next recession, the worse it gets.  Here's why...

  • Student loan bubble. HIGHER education is extremely overvalued.  
  • Auto loan bubble.  Auto loan defaults are skyrocketing - particularly on used cars.
  • Derivatives bubble.  I think we're at like a quadrillion now? That's crazy. 
  • 70% Americans don't have $1,000 in cash for an emergency.
  • The average household is $17,000 in debt. 
  • The average person who has owned their home for 20+ years will has about $30,000 worth of equity in it.  
  • Re-financings on homes reached record levels this decade and balloon payments on about 1.5 million homes will come due in about 15 months. THAT'S THE FIRST WAVE.  

We have not seen a confluence of events like this at any time during economic history - for ANY civilization.  In the case of the United States, booms and busts are perfunctory to living under a debt based fiat currency system that some may refer to as a Ponzi scheme.  

Any sequence of events can trigger all of these things to pop one after the other.  Or what if they pop simultaneously?  However, we all know that all of these things will end somehow. 

When I look at global debt, the dollar crisis, the RETIREMENT crisis seems to be the big pink elephant in the room no one wants to discuss, I sit up in my chair a bit more... 

Humans are literally dying out of the stock and real estate market and there are not enough humans who have the resources to replace them. 

There are going to be less people participating in 401k's - which has been the "secret" to the success of the stock market.  If money wasn't automatically taken from peoples paycheck for gambling in stocks with outlandish PE ratios today, and no real business in 2001, I doubt they'd sit down the weekend after pay day, shop for stocks, and place buy orders.  

So, the market relied on trillions of dollars automatically deducted from paychecks that won't be there to deduct anymore.

Furthermore, baby boomers were able to acquire and LEVERAGE debt. Baby boomers were able to start with a small SFR and allow that appreciate to a point where they could leverage it to buy a 4 or 8 unit building. No so for their kids and grandkids.

The average college grad will never qualify for a home under conventional terms. Let that sink in. Each year we are graduating MILLIONS of kids who will NEVER be able to qualify for a mortgage under conventional terms (solid credit, steady employment, 20% down).  

I was just reading an article where a freelancer was able to buy a $650,000 house after struggling to document income.   

This is not sustainable. There has to be a reset.  I hate to sound like a Debbie downer, but we will see a massive global recession at some point in time.  Don't get me started on the inevitability of dollars flowing back to shore which will in turn cause crazy inflation... The world is looking to "de-dollarize" as our dollar is backed by nothing more than the threat of force against oil producing countries who refuse to use it in trade. What happens to the dollar when we lose that leverage? 

China is playing a SUPER long game and has absolute and total global dominance as a part of it's 100 year plan... 

Must destroy to rebuild.  I'm nearing 40 and the most loving thing this country can do for my grandkids is to let this current system die and rebuild anew.  Based on sound money.

Post: What do you look for in an "investor friendly" real estate agent?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Tampa, FL
  • Posts 51
  • Votes 53

I've seen folks around the forums in search of "investor friendly" real estate agents and besides someone who sends you amazing deals to look at, what exactly do you look for in an "investor friendly" agent. What would be the antithesis of an "investor friendly" agent.  I'm asking as my wife is seriously considering pursuing her license to support our real estate investing business. Thanks!

Post: How should us new investors think about this?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Tampa, FL
  • Posts 51
  • Votes 53
Originally posted by @Alexander Felice:

Don't time the economy, but constantly learn about it

 The more I learn about the economy, the more intriguing this all becomes.  Thinking about the pending retirement crisis is a deep enough rabbit hole.

I agree, never predict the timing of the economy... but It think it doesn't hurt to anticipate the cyclical nature of the economy staying, cyclical.

Post: How should us new investors think about this?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Tampa, FL
  • Posts 51
  • Votes 53
Originally posted by @Michael Kistner:

@Account Closed

     Predicting another dip is a fools errand. You can find so much data pointing to a coming crash or a healthy economy. Stick to sound investing principles and you'll be fine in any market. Buy below value properties that you can force appreciation. It's a lot harder to do right now but it's still possible.

     "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffet

I agree, and disagree. Predicting the timing of another dip is a fools errand. Stating flatly that there will be another dip, is a bet you'd win 100% of the time if given infinite time for said dip to occur. 

We do live and exist in a fiat currency debt bubble and part of existing in a fiat currency debt bubble is the reality that booms and busts are perfunctory per design of the system.  We can't pinpoint timing, but under the current economic system, I'd bet my last dollar that there will be another bust (date unknown). No odds maker will touch that bet! lol. 

This specific topic fascinates me as guys in my area are unloading portfolios, sitting on cash, and waiting for the next dip. Some are doing 1031 exchanges into larger multi units, etc. But many are backing away from the SFR market.

Then, there are experienced guys like yourself who view their complacency as an opportunity to be greedy.  The thing is, you know exactly what you're doing, and they know exactly what they're doing.  That's the intriguing part. 

But Cassi made the strongest argument I've heard regarding not being "green" when it's time to buy the bottom.  That makes a LOT of sense. 

Post: How should us new investors think about this?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Tampa, FL
  • Posts 51
  • Votes 53

Hello all,

It seems like another RE dip is inevitable. None of us have magic crystal balls but I given the data coming out, from all angles, there will be another dip in the next 1-3 years. 

So for you experienced guys, my question is simple, how should new investors be operating RIGHT NOW? 

Let me add some context... I was on another small bloggers site and the options she laid out were as follows:

  1. Gamble on appreciation.
  2. Wholesale
  3. Lend

The caveat to number 2 is that many seasoned investors (perhaps many of you) are turning down more and more deals that wholesalers are bringing to you, deals you would have snapped up 3 or 4 years ago. So, it seems to me that wholesalers are "fishing for suckers." 

But on the flip side I remember reading on this forum that some of you can care less about buying rentals at the top of a market.  I found that fascinating.

That being said, for you experienced guys, what would be your advice to folks who are simply house hacking at the moment?  If you don't have a ton of properties that are positively cash flowing, and you're simply house hacking, should you even consider acquiring rentals (especially using leverage) at this stage of the game?

Interested in hearing you guys' thoughts!

Post: Co-Living Apartments in Chicago

Account ClosedPosted
  • Tampa, FL
  • Posts 51
  • Votes 53

I'm as green as they come as it relates to real estate investing, but I'm am absolute expert at starting and running businesses into the ground.

However, over the years, I've trained into my muscle memory a set of skills that make it VERY difficult for me to continue to blow wads of cash on any "idea."  

This is for those of you who are wondering if this is a good idea, should you do it, etc.

The Lean Co-Living Start-Up

I "googled" "co-living" for the first time today as I'd never heard of this term before.  I'm going to put together a plan to relatively quickly validate / or invalidate this business model.

I'll wait until after the Holidays as at the moment, people are doing more defaulting on mortgages and missing rent payments vs. looking to plunk down cash on a new place.

Plan

Sell the concept as if it existed in my target market. I'll need photos of beautifully lit, and well staged home.  No details spared as it relates to presentation. 

I'd then build a landing page, hammering away at the features, benefits, and mock pricing.  I'd play with a mix of prices and features and do A/B testing. 

Example; lets say I own mycolivingsite.com - I can set up my A/B testing so that when I receive 100 visitors, 50 can see one version and enter one funnel, the other 50 can see another version and potentially enter a completely different funnel.  

Just off the top of my head, a test I may want to run is to offer all the most amazing features I can think of at lets say $1,000 / month. Then, I offer LESS features for $1,000 / month.   Then, I may want to take the EXACT same set of features and offer them at $1,000 and $1,200 respectively.  

There'll be clear calls to action and they'll fill out a form after clicking "Save Me A Room." 

I'll gather name, e-mail, phone numbers of those interested in this amazing place in a great location.  Then, I'd get on the phone with them and talk try to learn as much about them as possible (record calls, take notes). I would let them know of my intentions, "hey, I'm test marketing this concept, I just wanna get it right..."

At the end of all this, I know a LOT about them, and I'll know EXACTLY what the plurality wants, where they want it, how much they want to pay, what's most important, what's least important, etc.  

This allows me to precisely optimize a co-living space for that market.  I can spend $300-$500 (graphics, landing page, facebook ads) and come back with qualitative and quantitative data that says "bad idea!" Big deal, I lost $300-$500 instead of losing a down payment, rehab costs, staging costs, and on and on.  

Again, if the data comes back positive, then I've got as close to as a fail proof start up as you can get.  Additionally, I have customers WAITING for me to deliver the solution vs. building the "solution" (which will likely be incorrect) and TRYING to sell it.  

Wrapping Up

I love this model because you can essentially make a margin on your maintenance costs. If a magical real estate fairy came down and asked all you landlords "wanna have someone come and clean your tenant occupied rentals for free every week?" You'd say 100x yes!!! Because when they exit, your costs to get it back on market, and occupy that unit are much lower, and you'd get it rented much faster.  So, I view this model as a way to get people to pay for that reality.