All Forum Posts by: Jason Thompson

Real estate investors are taking advantage of the current market conditions, while those on the sidelines are missing out. Real investors know that now is an ideal time to buy and are actively seeking out excellent opportunities. Investing in real estate can be a smart move when market conditions are favorable, so don't miss this chance if you have the means to do so. Act with caution and thorough research, but don't let fear keep you from making potentially great investments!

@Carlos Ptriawan
I do not see how I am a headline narrative guy when I gave points why I think the mainstream narrative is wrong. Wish you the best flipping houses in the Bay Area. If you read my initial post it said I am being conservative making 5% return on UST waiting to see what happens in the next 6-12 months. Based on yield curves worldwide there is a high probability of lower economic activity and in my opinion is not the time to be risk-on. 

In my opinion I do not see upward pressure on US housing prices. In the last 2 weeks there has been an 81bps increase in 30yr mortgages. Another big reason I am waiting is because I invest in apartments and there have been a lot of syndicators/operators that used bridge debt and very liberal underwriting standards. Which I assume will play out sometime this year.

 What has brought me sales is social media marketing through videos. Building up the trust with your followers goes a long way.

Also, ive had some luck with email marketing believe it or not.

@Jason Thompson if the numbers on the deal work right now, I'm buying it right now. 

Most of my portfolio was acquired during one of the worst buyer's markets of all time...but, I worked hard and found deals that made sense. If I had sat around saying "this is a seller's market, I'll wait until it cools off", I wouldn't have a portfolio.  

Nobody knows what the market will do in the future, but I know how to make a property cashflow today--so I stick with what I know.

Good luck out there!

 Oooh, you are looking for Apt. I am looking for SF to flip, we're in different business target then, good luck :)
You may want to use Crexi Intel for that purpose, btw

so @Jason Thompson , rather than speculating , let me know your zip code and house configuration that you are looking for and lets debug and analyze together, every market is hyper local and can not be generalized, I've shown how in my zip code the price is actually flat and never drop unlike what they said in newspaper haha LOL the problem with housing is actual sold price is not like stock price where everyone is seeing the same chart, this is actually I think the benefit of real estate investing whre sometimes people oversell or overbid their houses due to inaccuracies or lousy realtor.

I made >100k in 2021 alone for 4 months studying the price discrepancy lol

 @Jason Thompson
Right now, even though pending home sales have fallen off a cliff which would look like now is the time to buy b/c the average guy is not. The mainstream media is starting to change the message over the past 2 months to we may see a "soft" landing, or we will avoid a recession all together. The main reasons I have heard for an economic boom/start of another bull market are:
1. US Labor Market
2. China reopening
3. Europe missed a recession this winter b/c of energy crisis.

1. Us Labor market is extremely weak right now. As stated in previous post besides the 500k+ government jobs number, which uses logarithms to determine the number of jobs, the household survey report and payroll report show less job creation and most of the jobs that were created are seasonal hourly work. With labor participation so low it makes it look like the unemployment rate is at 50yr lows.

2. China reopening will spark demand. 
China reopening has not sparked demand and we are actually seeing demand continue to fall even as China reopened. Let's look at Japan, which goes along with Europe missing a recession, we can see that Japanese exports have fallen off a cliff by volume. We can also look at the Baltic Dry Index and see we are at lower values than much of 2020, when the global economy was shut down. If countries, specifically China in this case, are not importing raw materials to create goods and services and other countries by volume are not exporting and importing as many goods that shows a slowing global economy. 

3. Europe
Already way to long of post but Germany's economic numbers like Japan's are terrible with no signs of increasing anytime soon.

A word of caution is everyone in the media sees this slowdown of global economic activity as us going into a soft landing. The problem is that every recession/depression looks like a soft landing till it isn't. Never invest in what's on the front page of the WSJ. By than it is already to late.