All Forum Posts by: Jared Trindade

Let's cover some market data that I have compiled from a few different sources relating to the Durham NC area. 

Durham in the last few years has started to explode. It used to be a market no one wanted to touch due to having some rougher areas. However, investors have recently found out that Durham is a gold mine. The population including and surrounding area has seen an annual 1.4% population growth since 2010, with an additional add of 70,000 new home buyers expected within the next decade. Durham being seated in the Durham-Chapel Hill area and not far from Raleigh, expresses a robust student population, and large amount of historic areas, and older homes. 

Flips, LTRs, and House hacking are easy target investment methods in the Durham area. 

Another important note is the rate of appreciation in Durham. It is ranked in the top 20 in the nation for appreciation. In the past 10 years, Durham has seen an average annual home appreciation of 6.9% (wow). The demand in the past two years has risen aggressively, and this has translated into higher house prices. In the most recent quarter Durham's appreciation rate has been 8.78%, a great indicator of what's ahead for Durham. 

If we look at average days on market: 9 days for super hot properties, and an average of 42 days for your average home. Unfortunately, pulling data from an MLS, and certain regions of MLS, and depending on the data you are sourcing, you will get different information. Look at the entire MLS database and we are looking at a 7 day average, with roughly a 2 month supply of homes on the market. I would advise, when investing rather than solely looking at MLS generic market data that can be confusing, check the comps in the areas that you are investing. Those can be great indicators of how fast homes are moving in an area.

Another interesting thing to consider is that 75% of people who are looking for to purchase homes that currently live in Durham, seek a new home in Durham. That's huge, people who live in Durham greatly prefer to stay in Durham. This is a good indicator of small things. Local infrastructure, schools, shopping centers, entertainment, these are either being improved upon, have been improved, or in future plans of improvements. Few people want to stay in an area that feels like its moving backwards. This is a healthy indicator of how happy people are living in Durham, and reflects that most people are comfortable with the cost of living (CoL) in the area. The primary areas searched for the 25% looking elsewhere were Asheville NC (another super hot market, a correlation? I think so), Greensboro NC, and Myrtle Beach SC, in that order. Interestingly Greensboro is a cheaper CoL, Myrtle Beach is almost the same (slightly higher), and Asheville is about 25% higher CoL than Durham. This could be viewed as an indicator that some leaving may be seeking a cheaper CoL- those moving to Greensboro, some leave due to change in scenery Myrtle, and some have done well for themselves and can afford more expensive lifestyles leading to moving to higher CoL areas, in more secluded parts of NC. Personally, I love this data right here. 

Fayetteville NC is the largest influx of people moving to Durham, which is amazing. Investors in both areas could strike it with the same person twice, you love to see it.

Durham is growing, it's seeing a large influx of money, investors, and students. These are part of the normal routine here as of late, there is great opportunity in Durham, and the future is quite bright for that old town. I have no referred to any housing costs, or medians, because at the end of the day we all know prices are going up, and there is less buyers in the market. Sellers are having a better go at it now than just a few month ago. This should not deter the savvy investor however, because the best time to get in was yesterday. 

I am looking for questions, feedback, and would love to connect. Please give me something to bounce around with you!

Link to the resources: 

https://www.noradarealestate.c...

https://www.realtor.com/reales...

https://www.redfin.com/city/49...

https://durhamrealtors.org/mar...

https://livingcost.org/cost/un...

https://livingcost.org/cost/un...

 BTW if you cannot check out areas you want to invest in personally, having someone you trust in the area is critical

 Thank you! I appreciate the input!

Triplexes don't do well because everyone hates them, including the people who own them. The ones in town are typically very old and need a lot of work, and typically do not reside in the nicest of neighborhoods in the local area. If you get a chance to just drive through Fayetteville, go through some back neighborhoods near Ramsey St, then drive out to Hay St, take some of the back roads there and cruise through a couple of those neighborhoods, you will be pleasantly shocked. Then shoot down to Raeford rd, take a left on Graham st, run through some of those neighborhoods real fast. Then roll back out to Raeford, hang a right and you'll make a left shortly onto Bunce rd. Get down to Cliffdale and hang a left, take a left at the next light (in front of a taco bell) and roll through those neighborhoods. For added measure, you can shoot further down Cliffdale and hang a right onto Hoke Loop road, you will see the neighborhood you want to check out about a minute up the road. Great little subdivision to roll through. On your way out, go back on Cliffdale towards Skibo, at the intersection with McDonalds on the right, hang a left onto N Reily Rd, cruise down that till you can turn right on to Morganton and head back up to the mall. 

You hit those locations, and you will see a lot of the different sides of Fayetteville. The good, the bad, the in-between. You will also see very quickly what the relative conditions of vast majority of certain styles of homes are. There is plenty more to see, and other neighborhoods to gain perspective from, like you shoot over to Murchison rd, near the corner of Country Club rd, and check those neighborhoods out, you'll see more different looks at Fayetteville. 

I know it's a pain to drive all over town, however the data you gain will be invaluable, the visual perspective of Fayetteville says just as much as paper does. I used to sell bathroom/window/door remodels in Fayetteville, and Cutlery, all were in home sales, so I've been inside a ton of the doors here in town. I promise you, 9/10 locations you look at the outside and form an opinion on what the inside probably looks like, you probably aren't too far off. 

 I'm finding that the investors that we are working with are having no current issues picking up SFHs, they are coming and going just as fast here in town. LTRs are are hot right now, they seem to be moving rather quickly depending on the location in town. We recently sold a rather large unit town, took a week to find a buyer. Fayetteville is extremely popular at the moment. People are looking for those cheaper price points, and Fayetteville offers exactly that, with high re-marketability

 I think it is important to consider a fundamental point in this. There is a finite amount of land, there is an ever increasing supply of people who need homes.

Real estate, regardless of market conditions is similar to the stock market, it is inherently going to increase over time- no matter what. Logically it doesn't make sense that an entire economy collapses forever at this point, the most realistic way for an entire economy or market to die would be absolute obsolesce of whatever was being provided. Which is obviously not the Real Estate Market. Otherwise, as demand will always increase over a very long time, there's no reason to assume that short term- "Oh doesn't look like a good market right now" play even makes sense. 

In fact I find almost an irony in a negative mindset right now. For months everyone was complaining about the competition of having to fight for properties against so many other bidders, and how quickly deals were turning so they didn't even have a chance to take a stab at it. Now that the market has cooled off a bit, people are taking a step back to reevaluate, and this massive lull is a great opportunity for people who know what they are doing, know their markets, and know how to make the cash to genuinely swoop in, and capture so many dollars that are being passed up on by so many investors. I unfortunately liken this to fear, and obviously adequate risk judging needs to be taken into consideration in any real estate investments.

As I said in my post however "This could signal a potential opportunity for the savvy investor! Stay on your toes, and remember: Real Estate always has a cycle. Just like anything else!"

More buyers are coming into the market daily, real estate may be lagging behind, may have it's ups and down, but that's the cycle. 

Two different data collections from the MLS from different sources providing conflicting data, thank you for linking the alternate numbers for people to look at!

 Thank you!

Thank you for that feedback, a critical point to make for those looking into the STR Fayetteville market, and a great heads up to be on the lookout for the proper numbers to profit in Fayetteville.

Purchasing a home is typically seen as a longer term time investment and a commitment to a location, especially by young 18,19 year old fresh military personnel (most teens in general), and renting is much easier to up and out if you were to get orders and have to leave the Fayetteville area. Keep in mind not all Military are married and/or have dependents to qualify for BAH. Leaving fresh transfers the options of: Purchasing (Riskiest), Rentals (Convenience), and stay in the barracks (Generally sucks). Rentals create an easy; "I have no attachments here really" situation for someone who could be moving in a year or two, or sometimes less. Of course there is a 11.9% Veteran Population in Fayetteville which means there is a lot of VA Loan homes going.

SFHs are extremely popular in Fayetteville as well as Duplexes, Tri-plexes do not do well in Fayetteville typically, and Quad-plexes are a very viable option.