Real Estate Market in Durham

[Jared Trindade]

Let's cover some market data that I have compiled from a few different sources relating to the Durham NC area. 

Durham in the last few years has started to explode. It used to be a market no one wanted to touch due to having some rougher areas. However, investors have recently found out that Durham is a gold mine. The population including and surrounding area has seen an annual 1.4% population growth since 2010, with an additional add of 70,000 new home buyers expected within the next decade. Durham being seated in the Durham-Chapel Hill area and not far from Raleigh, expresses a robust student population, and large amount of historic areas, and older homes. 

Flips, LTRs, and House hacking are easy target investment methods in the Durham area. 

Another important note is the rate of appreciation in Durham. It is ranked in the top 20 in the nation for appreciation. In the past 10 years, Durham has seen an average annual home appreciation of 6.9% (wow). The demand in the past two years has risen aggressively, and this has translated into higher house prices. In the most recent quarter Durham's appreciation rate has been 8.78%, a great indicator of what's ahead for Durham. 

If we look at average days on market: 9 days for super hot properties, and an average of 42 days for your average home. Unfortunately, pulling data from an MLS, and certain regions of MLS, and depending on the data you are sourcing, you will get different information. Look at the entire MLS database and we are looking at a 7 day average, with roughly a 2 month supply of homes on the market. I would advise, when investing rather than solely looking at MLS generic market data that can be confusing, check the comps in the areas that you are investing. Those can be great indicators of how fast homes are moving in an area.

Another interesting thing to consider is that 75% of people who are looking for to purchase homes that currently live in Durham, seek a new home in Durham. That's huge, people who live in Durham greatly prefer to stay in Durham. This is a good indicator of small things. Local infrastructure, schools, shopping centers, entertainment, these are either being improved upon, have been improved, or in future plans of improvements. Few people want to stay in an area that feels like its moving backwards. This is a healthy indicator of how happy people are living in Durham, and reflects that most people are comfortable with the cost of living (CoL) in the area. The primary areas searched for the 25% looking elsewhere were Asheville NC (another super hot market, a correlation? I think so), Greensboro NC, and Myrtle Beach SC, in that order. Interestingly Greensboro is a cheaper CoL, Myrtle Beach is almost the same (slightly higher), and Asheville is about 25% higher CoL than Durham. This could be viewed as an indicator that some leaving may be seeking a cheaper CoL- those moving to Greensboro, some leave due to change in scenery Myrtle, and some have done well for themselves and can afford more expensive lifestyles leading to moving to higher CoL areas, in more secluded parts of NC. Personally, I love this data right here. 

Fayetteville NC is the largest influx of people moving to Durham, which is amazing. Investors in both areas could strike it with the same person twice, you love to see it.

Durham is growing, it's seeing a large influx of money, investors, and students. These are part of the normal routine here as of late, there is great opportunity in Durham, and the future is quite bright for that old town. I have no referred to any housing costs, or medians, because at the end of the day we all know prices are going up, and there is less buyers in the market. Sellers are having a better go at it now than just a few month ago. This should not deter the savvy investor however, because the best time to get in was yesterday. 

I am looking for questions, feedback, and would love to connect. Please give me something to bounce around with you!

Link to the resources: 

https://www.noradarealestate.c...

https://www.realtor.com/reales...

https://www.redfin.com/city/49...

https://durhamrealtors.org/mar...

https://livingcost.org/cost/un...

https://livingcost.org/cost/un...

[Kenneth Jackson]

Great post Jared. 

As someone that lives and does a significant portion of their business in downtown Durham, it's easy to see why it's so desirable. There's 20 great restaurants and as many great bars (not to mention the Durham Bulls Stadium, DPAC, and American Tobacco Campus, which is expanding) within a 1/2 mile radius from the heart of downtown. 

Durham is diverse, with a rich historical background. There's a grit to it and it's attractive to live in a place with a downtown that is centric to many great neighborhoods that have an oozing of character. We've learned from Raleigh's NIMBY struggles, with the building and allowance of ADU's and AirBNB's, not stymying any urban infill that can happen and not to mention there's incentives in our UDO to build in the urban core. This is a brand new build in downtown Durham, with 3 en suites, and you're so close to anything and everything that you don't need a car if you work from home. 

I will argue that our price points have creeped up enough that you have to get creative with investing, even house-hacking a duplex on a low down payment (like this one) might not come good for a few years. Very few small multi-families were built in our area between 1970's and the early 2000's, creating a very thin market for small multi-family. I anticipate our AirBNB market becoming over-saturated like many large cities (if it isn't already) and creating the best product you can will keep vacancy down. There are still great opportunities to buy in South Durham and appeal to the RTP crowd for AirBNB, and if anyone is interested in those specific areas I'm happy to share offline. 

One note - Downtown Durham and South Durham (near I-40, close to RTP) feel like very different places. I've seen several big mistakes made recently by investors not engaging a trusted professional to be on their team to advise. It's important to work with someone that knows it down to a neighborhood/street level if you're going to buy here and especially if you're looking to invest.