All Forum Posts by: Jared Trindade

Let's talk about Goldsboro.

Sporting a median home price around the $200k mark, with average homes going for 2% under list in 15 days, and hot homes going for 2% over ask in 7 days. Non-market priced homes are sitting for around 55 days. Homes are still getting multiple offers and waiving contingencies. Buyers are still here. 

Let's talk the data I like to see. Population; currently sitting at 33k people. Growth rate of -0.83% annually, with a -4.36% growth reported on the 2020 census. Not good. The population peaked around 40.7k in 1990, and has steadily declined since then. Most inbound and outbound movers are heading to, or coming from Raleigh NC. Median age of 39.

Sporting roughly a 25% poverty rate, and a 40% owner occupied rate, affordable housing has a large place in this market.

Wayne County that Goldsboro belongs in supports a population of 117k people with a -.04% population growth rate annually. Also falling behind in growth, and sporting a 20% poverty rate. Wayne county market is 58% SFH, 17% MFH, 27%+- Mobile Home, 56% owner occupied.

Cost of Living (CoL) in Goldsboro is 48/50 most expensive city in NC and ranked top 28% most expensive in the world, making it extremely affordable here in NC. 

Let's talk crime, because it's no small thing to pass off with Goldsboro. Normally any city is going to have it's crime, and it's not something to usually dissuade people. With Goldsboro, we find a unique situation however, despite it's size; Goldsboro's rate of crime is one of the highest in the USA when compared to the smallest or largest of cities in the US. Chance of being a victim of violent or property crime is 1 in 16, higher than 94% of all other cities in the US, and firmly places Goldsboro as the 43rd most dangerous city to live in the US. Using the crime index, which scales 0-100, 100 being the safest cities, Goldsboro scores a 2. Effectively safer than 2% of all other locations in the US that provide crime data statistics. 

To get the bigger picture let's look at crime data for Wayne County, which ranks overall in the 54% for dangerous counties. The rate of being a victim of a crime varies between 1 in 16 to 1 in 45, depending on the location in county. By ignoring where the population lives, and focusing on where the crime is committed East Wayne sees about 820 reported crimes yearly on average vs West Wayne which sees an average of 122. So not terribly bad for the entire county, it's quite clear the crime is generally localized. A lot of the crime is happening in commercial districts at much higher rate then the more residential west side of Wayne County. 

I don't typically like to focus on negative statistics, I try to highlight where the potential upside is and I normally don't like going super deep on crime, but I do feel it's important to be upfront aware of the area in Goldsboro NC before looking to invest there, it's not like the vast majority of the rest of the state in the way crime is happening in the city. 

It appears that Hosokawa is bringing a plant with 16 jobs that was signed in 2021 with Roy Cooper, and intended to be operational by fall 2022. Despite searching I cannot seem to find an update on that, if anyone knows please let me know. The were going to be paying $15k+ over median salary to those 16, and that's the only real company movement I've found in recent years. 

To conclude: There is a solid base for affordable housing, cheap flips, and BRRRR projects. The rate of crime is higher, but a home is 300% more likely to be broken into without a security system, so there are other forms of crime mitigation outside of choosing a good location. At the end of the day however, crime happens everywhere, so an investor must calculate that into their risk factors and make the plan. There is a great opportunity to get in a cheap price point, but a declining population and a lack of interest for businesses to move in, sporting some of the cheapest CoL in NC, should be if nothing else yellow flags. Always do your due diligence, research, run the comps, Goldsboro has investors working it actively so it's not a market that is completely off the table, and opportunity is there if you are comfortable with the risks.

As always looking for any questions, comments, concerns, and feedback. It's impossible to know everything about a market, so if you have any value adds, please drop 'em! Looking to connect with more people as well, so please reach out!

For more reading and sources:

https://www.redfin.com/city/68...

https://www.realtor.com/reales...

https://www.census.gov/quickfa...

https://censusreporter.org/pro...

https://worldpopulationreview....

https://www.neighborhoodscout....

https://www.neighborhoodscout....

https://livingcost.org/cost/un...

https://stacker.com/north-caro...

https://crimegrade.org/safest-...

https://ncgtpedr.com/hosokawa-...

https://www.commerce.nc.gov/ne...

Population. Incoming. 

Let's get right into the meat here, Burlington NC is growing at a phenomenal rate. Currently at 1.26% annual growth with a population of just under 59k. If you were to look at a population graph, it's the exact definition of what you love to see in an area. Consistently hitting amazing growth numbers since the 1940s, and no sign of slowing down. The vast majority of influx is coming from Raleigh NC, and outflux heading to Myrtle Beach SC. 75% of online searches for home from Burlington locals were looking to stay inside Burlington. There doesn't seem to be much making people wanna leave. 

Sporting a poverty rate of around 15% (which is down in the last few years from ~23%) and a crime index of 4 out of 100 (100 being the safest). Violent crimes, and property crimes trend higher on average in Burlington than the rest of the state, but when compared to other cities, not the whole state, it's very similar. So nothing crazy in that department, a 15% poverty rate could give an investor an opportunity with affordable housing. 

Median sales price is in the $240k area, with average homes for 1% under ask in 18 days and hot homes moving 2% over ask in 5 days. That's a solid turn around, it clearly is indicating buyers in the area, as well as quality of product making the extra bucks. It is a very competitive market right now, and is a flipper hotbed in NC. The cheap prices, rapid growth, proximity to large cities, and lying right of I-40 gives it the perfect position to be the city outside the cities. Bringing up the position for 17th largest city in NC, Burlington should be on any investors radar. 

65% of homes are owner occupied, with roughly 70% of the market being SFH, and a median age of 40, you can see why flippers are having a field day in Burlington right now.

Burlington does have a bit of a higher cost of living in NC ranked 11/50 most expensive, and in the top 8% most expensive cities in the world. Which means market rents are higher than in some other areas. According to the Cost Of Living Index a 1 bed apartment in city center should rent for a little over $1200 a month. Side note, Burlington ranked in the top 39% best cities to live in the world. Not bad. 

Burlington being a smaller area that is still growing -rapidly- is really the main drawback. There is an reach chance to see Burlington reach the 70k+ population mark in the near future, meaning housing demand will continue to rise, along with the prices, and likely a need for new builds. This will attract more businesses, and we will see the local economy increase as a result. I think there may even be a solid buy & hold strategy that could pan out in the long term. 

As with every investment do your research, run your comps, know your market, have a good team, and run the numbers. Burlington is one of the places worth looking into doing exactly that.

If you have any feedback, questions, comments, concerns or anything valuable to add please do! Always looking to connect with more people as well, so please reach out!

For extra reading and sources:

https://www.redfin.com/city/23...

https://www.realtor.com/reales...

https://worldpopulationreview....

https://www.census.gov/quickfa...

https://censusreporter.org/pro...

https://livingcost.org/cost/un... 

https://www.neighborhoodscout.... 

Quote from @Jewel B.:

Another great post!

Looking forward to seeing Charlotte and Winston-Salem :)

 The next on my list are Burlington, Goldsboro, Winston-Salem, Charlotte! In that order, stay on the lookout!

Don't miss the green in Greensboro. 

Greensboro is a perfectly situated city in North Carolina. While being more North in NC, it sits perfectly between the Mountains and the Coast. A smooth 3 hour drive to the beach, and you can start hitting mountains in less than 2 hours heading east. It's a city that people call "Mini-Charlotte" with good reason. It boasts many of the same amenities as Charlotte, and only being about 90 minutes away from the real Charlotte Greensboro couldn't be settled bettered. Nestled right between Winston-Salem and Raleigh/Durham, three rapidly growing cities with a lot of money being poured into them. Greensboro is right there on that trend with them. 

Greensboro is one of the better transit hubs in NC, between the Airport, Amtrak, Public bus, and new Bike path cover all of Greensboro called the Greensboro Greenway is under construction. Moving around in Greensboro, or traveling out, the options are there and efficient. Greensboro really isn't missing anything other than a professional sports team. Despite not having one, Greensboro is known as the "Tournament Town" hosting events like the NCAA basketball game and the ACC Basketball tournament.

Greensboro is also benefitting from some large company investments. Like the new Toyota Battery Plant, and UPS expansions. Production is set to start in 2025 for the plant, and a little over 1700 jobs are expected to be brought in from the Toyota plant alone. This is not the only thing happening in or around Greensboro, as almost all cities in Triad benefit when big players move to any of them. The the beauty of the layout of NC. Winston/Gboro/Durham/Raleigh/Greenville in pretty much a straight line all connected by 40, and can travel one end to other in around 4 hours. 

More Millennials are moving here than other cities like Austin and Raleigh, and the population is flourishing. Boasting the 3rd largest city population in NC and the 69th largest in NC, it may be called "Mini-Charlotte" but it's not small by any means. Supporting a population just north 303,000 people and a growth of .97% annually, nothing superb, but a good look. The majority of influx migration is coming from Raleigh, DC, and NYC. Outbound heading towards Myrtle Beach, Asheville, and Charlotte. Which is something I like to see personally. People are leaving Raleigh and heading to Greensboro for cheaper pricing (and I bet less traffic). The ones leaving are heading to higher Cost of Living (CoL) areas, which is a good sign that people are gaining wealth in the area. If we take a look at online searches from Greensboro locals looking to move 75% are looking to stay in Greensboro. That's a healthy indicator that local infrastructure, CoL, and future opinion are in view positively by the local population. 

Speak of Cost of Living, Greensboro sports rank 2 of cheapest out of the largest 5 cities in NC. Ranks 44/50 in overall NC affordability, and is ranked in the top 25% most expensive cities in the world. CoL here is low, and the median after tax salary sits at 3.4k roughly 2.1 months worth of expenses. Solid numbers to see. 

Related to crime Greensboro score a 5 on the Crime Index (scored out of 100, 100 being the safest) which isn't a great look. Statistically speak Greensboro does have an abnormally higher rate of crime than the rest of NC. Being a victim of a violent crime is 1 in 110 vs 1 in 235 in NC, victim of property crime is 1 in 27 vs 1 in 44 in NC. Nothing to freak out about, but it's important know. Knowing the higher crime areas is important when investing in any city, and Greensboro is no different. 

There are 5 Colleges within 3 miles of the city center, meaning that a large student population is ever present in Greensboro. Despite that, the median age is 36 in Greensboro. Roughly 54% of homes are owner-occupied so there is a large rental base and opportunity there. 

Average homes are selling at list and moving in about 25 days, hot listings are going for 3% over list in about 15 days. Pretty solid turn around. Still a little tighter on supply that I'd like to see, and the market isn't selling as many as last year- but NC as a whole is still a hotbed for potential, Greensboro being no exception. 

Roughly a 14% poverty rate, which is nothing crazy, but does mean there is a potential need for affordable housing. 

Around 60% of the market is SFH and around 35% is MFH. Good indicator of what people are prioritizing in the area.

Don't sleep on Greensboro, there is opportunity abundant, and still boasts a sub $300k median sale price. There's economy, people, and development coming to Greensboro. It may not be the hottest market in NC, but it's not one to write off the list by any means. 

As always looking for any additional comments, questions, value adds, and feedback! Looking to connect with more people on here, so let's chat!

Here are the links to the websites for extra reading and sources.

https://uphomes.com/blog/movin...

https://www.redfin.com/city/71...

https://www.realtor.com/reales...

https://worldpopulationreview....

https://www.census.gov/quickfa...

https://censusreporter.org/pro...

https://www.wfmynews2.com/arti...

https://www.wfmynews2.com/arti...

https://livingcost.org/cost/un...

https://www.neighborhoodscout....

Quote from @Bobby Feinman:

@Jared Trindade

Great post except you didn't mention Grady White Boats lol! I live "up the road" in VA Beach and I agree that Greenville offers lots of opportunity, especially for landlords! I also am fond of Fayetteville and am doing a lot of business there currently!

Bobby

Haha, thank you Bobby! I appreciate your input!

I currently live in Fayetteville, if you're doing business down here I'd love to connect to see if we could be resources for each other!

Quote from @Eric Gerakos:

Cheap properties and a high poverty rate are good reasons to “run away.” High maintenance and high vacancy……

Thank you for offering that opinion! 
I am not disagreeing with you, however that same thing can be said for certain areas of every city in the world. The overall feel of the city is what you may find more remote in other areas of NC, but that doesn't mean there's absolutely zero valuable investment opportunities here. I don't think by any means Greenville should be sprinted into with no regard for risk, but it doesn't mean in 10-20-30 years from now the people who bought a property now, fixed, help, rented, and paid it off, may find themselves in a good appreciation situation. Speculative of course, but running away from an area leaves the savvy investor the opportunities. 

The numbers work, or they don't. Math, Management, and Local Laws dictate of lot of profitability in investments. 

Quote from @Pat Lulewicz:

Definitely a great cash flow play in Greenville, but its a speculative appreciation play and that can deter a lot of LT investors who want to be able to compound their money. I invested in a similar tertiary town in IL, when I lived there, which was primarily students and blue-collar manufacturing. Saw almost no appreciation in 4 years (granted that's a small timeline to play over) but steady cash flow. Had both types of tenants - students and blue-collar. At the end of the day, everyone just wants a solid and safe home, to have any immediate maintenance handled timely, and be left alone. To a point made, proper screening will take care of a lot of issues. I think these are phenomenal base-hits with the right hand-holding to know which street/neighborhood will be appropriate for a low-touch investment.

 I appreciate your post, and I agree with your take away. It's quite clear Greenville is not the hot spot market that is going to give the same consistent returns that another city may. I think it would be unwise to say that a good buck couldn't be made in Greenville with the right approach and systems in place. 

Thanks again for the feedback!

Quote from @Jewel B.:

My favorite notifications to get. 

Jared, is there a correlation between the student population and the poverty rate? If it's a college town and most of the student body is either not working or working low paying or part time jobs and they're counted in the poverty rates, wouldn't that inflate the %? As opposed to it being a depressed area per se (such as gangs or meth/heroin addiction being the main contributor).

There also measures to take against the party population, beyond regular due diligence in tenant screening, such as using parents as guarantors or renting only to upperclassmen and post-grads.

I think it's also important to note that ECU has medical and dental schools, a top rated graduate program, and the ECU Health Medical Center, including a main hospital, emergency department, and children's hospitals. This is another group of students and residents that would make for safe choices in renting in terms of a decreased likelihood of being partiers or destructive and an increased probability that they are focused on their career and studies and will be responsible tenants who spend all their time with their nose in a book.

It may also have potential for MTRs for traveling nurses or other medical professionals or researchers, though there does only appear to be that one hospital system there due to the relatively small population.

Thoughts?

I don't think there is much of a correlation in Poverty rate and students, Greenville NC is just not the great of an area in NC, but there is future potential. I think someone with the right mindset, skillset, and goals can go into Greenville and find a way to make good profits. The same can be said for pretty much every market though, it just comes down to the numbers, management, and skills. 

If there is a high poverty rate, looks to me like I wouldn't need to invest into anything fancy to get started, and likely can find a tenant for a fair rent. As long as I have a solid property management company, I shouldn't have to worry much about issues with the tenants. If I am managing it directly, then making sure I screen tenants and find a decent location is key. 
Hope that helps!

Quote from @Brian S.:

@Jared Trindade

I lived there for a few years. I don’t think the students are the reason for the poverty rate. There are some multifamily homes there for sale that look like an outstanding deal but there’s a reason they sit on the market with boarded up windows. I think it would be a great area to invest if you lived there and could keep a close eye on it or knew the up and coming areas from the ones that will probably stay the way they are forever. Sorry in advance for the pessimism

I wasn't trying to say that the student are the cause of a higher poverty rate, however I do agree a lot with what you are saying. Realistically in the long term though, we will likely see Greenville grow, NC has been slowly revamping all the major cities, I think Greenville will have it's time, when is the question!

Quote from @Randy B.:

Do you know of any data sources (paid or free) that would provide nation-wide insights into primary markets/MSAs AND secondary/suburban markets?  

I'd like to find sites & sources that show population growth, job growth & economic factors (such as large companies moving in or local industry growth), appreciation, cash flow/rent-to-price data, etc.

Any websites, reports or other sources you can share?

Thanks!

Randy

 You can use these two for free, gives that data a snapshot. I mean it's the census so you there's only certain times when it's accurate, and the most recent one is a decent indicator, there have been annual adjustments made too, so it's pretty up to date. 

State/Cities/Towns, pretty much any place with more than 5,000 people living in it can be looked up, and since you can go state by state, you can use that to narrow down pop data and economy by states first, then dig into the cities. Tedious, but entirely free and you can get a relatively solid understanding of the state of things. The reporter makes it visually easy to breakdown. 

Hope those help!

https://www.census.gov/quickfa...

https://censusreporter.org/