All Forum Posts by: Dan H.

we use PM/co-host on our STRs/MTRs and self manage our LTRs (exact opposite of the Avery’s).

We have gotten MTR from both Airbnb and VRBO, but I agree that most people using those sites are looking for STRs.  However, it only takes one.  

VVR is Google vacation rentals.  My understanding is that its use is growing    Because we use PM/co-host for our STRs I do not know what is required to get listed or how large am impact they are at this time.  But seeing their impact is increasing, it could be worth the effort to figure it out   Someone that is not our PM or co-host told me that a fair amount of their international booking where coming from GVR.

Your unit is a nice unit in a desirable location.   None of my STRs are at max occupancy for April (I had one at max occupancy in March) and one has real poor occupancy (not only for April, but its calendar is looking very sparse on occupancy).  I fear with the pessimistic economic outlook, bookings may get more challenging.  

Good luck

My belief is in a market like San Diego where values significantly exceed building costs I think that increase in building costs in inconsequential in most areas and that the economic optimism/pessimism will have more impact (polling shows US populace is pessimistic about the economy and I believe San Diego is more pessimistic about where the economy is going than nationally

I believe in Vacation markets (mission beach, down town, etc) the RE prices will decline. These are typically markets that values far exceed building costs so building costs play virtually zero impact. Less people feeling confident of the economy means less or smaller vacations (less STR income); less STR income means more incentive to sell STRs. Poor economic confidence means less purchases of secondary/vacation homes.

In the non vacation markets which is most of San Diego, the building cost increase is a blip so not likely to raise prices.   But unlike vacation homes, people need a place to live.  I would expect the economic outlook to usually slow sales, but the volume is already low so I question question any impact. 

In summary, the economic outlook will have a bigger impact on San Diego home prices by far than a $6400 additional cost to build (affordable housing currently is adding more cost than that in developer concessions in many local markets).

I hope this crisis does not get much worse.

Quote from @Allen Ramirez:

Hi Jimmy! Thanks for the invaluable feedback! Again, I've been hearing good things about Ohio. And coming from a real estate agent that's actually there, makes it that much more credible :) 

Do you invest as well in Ohio? If so, do you have a team together? (i.e., GC, PM, etc?)

At one point, once I finalize an area, which is looking more and more like a city in Ohio, I'd like to fly out there and meet with possible future team members. It be great to have a guide if you were willing or had time. It wouldn't be anytime soon but I think likely sometime within the next few months, maybe end of summerish. 

If not, no worries! thanks for all the feedback anyways! 

 I have nothing against Ohio RE, but thought I would balance the Ohio RE Professionals posse’s plaudits for Ohio RE.

According to Core Logic, California leads all states in percentage of SFR investor purchases, 34%. Ohio is tied for 3rd lowest percentage of investor purchases, 24%. Do you believe the investors investing in CA do not know what they are doing?

Neighborhoodscout has the following appreciation for this century:
- San Diego: 10/10 nationally, 306%. https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/san-diego/real-estate
- Cleveland: 1/10 nationally, 79%. https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/oh/cleveland/real-estate.
- Toledo: 1/10 nationally, 52%. https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/oh/toledo/real-estate
- Dayton: 1/10 nationally, 78%. https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/oh/dayton/real-estate
- Columbus Ohio: 5/10 nationally, 154%. https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/oh/columbus/real-estate

Note only Columbus has appreciation higher than 50% of San Diego (Columbus is barely over 50% of Dan Diego’s appreciation). In addition, some of those markets the RE appreciation has not kept up with inflation implying, in inflation adjusted dollars, the values have decreased.

What do you think has historically the stronger correlation to cash flow over a long hold between the initial cash flow or market appreciation? If it is not obvious, it is market appreciation. This implies that San Diego historically has produced the better cash flow than the Ohio markets for a long hold.  

Do you think the stats are incorrect?

I think RE investors local to Ohio can do well investing local. I think most California OOS investors that invest in Ohio are falling for the temptation like Fool’s Gold.

This is not to imply that San Diego RE is not currently without its challenges. My post earlier in this thread hopefully was clear that there are challenges investing in San Diego RE. I believe that is currently true in virtually every market.

Good luck

I have 4 STRs in the San Diego area. 2 have been STRs since 1999, so I have a lot of years of STR experience (but it is a moving target). I also have 20 something LTRs. I used to have a unit that was an MTR (due to initially not getting an STR Llicense).

I do not have any furnished LTRs.  I do not know the market for furnished LTRs, so will discuss as though it was a MTR.

I am assuming that STR is out. Possibly not allowed by the HOA.

I think your unit looks nice and is in a good location. 

Is there a reason you are not listed on Airbnb, GVR, and VRBO?  

My local STR units do not have as high an occupancy as they used to. One of my STRs (one that has been a STR since 1999) in particular is struggling at the moment. My point is that you may be priced competitively but there are vacant units. The days of near 100% occupancy are gone. If you do not want a vacancy, you may want to ask below market price.

Good luck

Quote from @Stephanie Medellin:

Hi Mike, welcome to the community! The maximum FHA loan amount for San Diego county is $2,072,250. The numbers you're seeing are for the maximum loan amounts nationwide, which only apply to the highest cost counties. You would think that San Diego county falls into that category, but the loan limits there are just slightly under.

Here are the FHA loan limits for San Diego County in 2025:

SFR 2-Unit 3-Unit 4-Unit

$1,077,550

$1,379,450

$1,667,450

$2,072,250

When you're doing a renovation loan like 203(k), the loan limit is the max, inclusive of any renovation costs that you're financing.  If the purchase + renovations are over the limit, you would just bring the rest to closing from your own funds.

Keep in mind for 3-4 units on FHA, the property must meet a self-sufficiency test. This means that 75% of the rental income on all units must cover the monthly principal, interest, property tax, and insurance payment. It can be hard to meet this requirement in some higher cost areas.

I'd be happy to talk further and go over some numbers.  I have several options available for 203(k) loans.  

>Keep in mind for 3-4 units on FHA, the property must meet a self-sufficiency test. This means that 75% of the rental income on all units must cover the monthly principal, interest, property tax, and insurance payment. It can be hard to meet this requirement in some higher cost areas.

I will word it much more pessimistically.  Finding a triplex or quad in San Diego that meets the sustainability requirement is about as likely as finding a unicorn.  

FHA in San Diego are virtually only available on SFH and duplexes due to sustainability requirements.  


good luck

Quote from @Ying Tang:

@Dan H. Hi Dan, thanks for your reply! I really like what you like and I'm going to print it out and hang it on my desk. So, you are offsetting that income/cash flow with more investment/loan/interest correct? I really need to dig deeper into this, as currently I pay a lot of income taxes. 

not a tax professional.  Verify everything with your trusted tax expert. 

The loan duration by itself is not really the point of my comment on cash flow being taxed annually.   The reduced cash flow resulting from increased leverage means less tax because you have less “income”.  Note the money extracted via refinance is not taxed until a later time (when you sell without 1031 exchange).  This is true even though you have that money to spend as you desire (ideally invest and not squander).  With 1031 you can put off paying the taxes even after selling the property.  If you die, you and your heirs never get taxed on that money you extracted due to a stepped up basis. 

If you want to write off money from a w2, you or your spouse likely will need to qualify as an RE professional.   This is virtually impossible if you have a full time w2 job that is not RE related.  If you can qualify as RE Professional, then maybe you can benefit from accelerated depreciation.  

Good luck

My view almost matches @Chris Seveney with a little more explanation.  

Unsuccessful people hit a hurdle and cannot clear it.  They often think poor me.  I got unlucky or someone $crewed me, etc.  these little hurdles are excuses not to proceed.  Life is rough on them because they are not equipped to handle these hurdles.

Successful, motivated people hit similar hurdles and they find a way to clear the hurdles.  Even if the hurdles keep coming, they keep clearing them.  As they clear more hurdles, they get better at it.  The hurdles that are road blocks for the unsuccessful people are barely speed bumps for the person who has cleared dozens of challenging hurdles.

Housing currently has poor affordability.  However I have been hearing this for years.  Prior to 2022 q2, housing was more affordable than the bulk of the previous 50 years.  Sure it was not as affordable as 2012, but historically it was affordable.   Various hurdles prevented most wannabe RE investors from investing.  Prices are too high.  Housing is a bubble and going to crash.  Interest rates are going to fall.   Housing shortage, not enough supply.  Too much competition.   Analysis paralysis.  Does not achieve the initial cash flow that I seek,  Etc.  Minor hurdles, but too big for some people to overcome.

My brother was a journeyman electrician.  Went to college and an apprenticeship program making scale salary while working as an apprentice (meaning it increases the closer you get to journeyman and the day you become journeyman it nearly doubles) to become a journeyman electrician.  He was a journeyman electrician over a decade when the state mandate passing a test to be a journeyman electrician.  Brother has dyslexia.  He took the test and barely failed.  He was frustrated, demoralized, etc.  so he let a lot of time pass before taking the test again to once again barely fail.  Again a lot of time before taking the test again and again barely failed.  after 3 failures, he gave up.  I do not have dyslexia so I may not understand all the challenges that come with it.  But if I barely failed, I would sign up for the next available test and study a little harder.  Even if I failed 3 times, if that is my best opportunity I would not give up.  He feels cheated.  He feels unlucky.   However, this is not the only thing he feels cheated or unlucky about.   He feels he has had a rough life.  I feel if I was in his position I would have cleared the hurdles, maybe not always on the 1st try.  He believes I am lucky and things break my way   Whether it is recognizing the value of information before it is commonly known or buying RE that appreciates substantially.

I feel lucky.   I fell lucky that I am able to clear the hurdles put before me whether via hard work, intelligence, experience, or luck.  I feel the world is full of opportunities.  I have made a lot of money via 3 different paths.  I feel there are more opportunities than I have the time or desire to tackle (plus at this point I tackle them because I find financial success to be my fun which is not as motivating as needing to house, cloth, feed a family).

Best wishes for everyone to clear their hurdles

Quote from @Dayana García:

Hi all! Looking for advice and feedback, also share my experience which I think could help to new and inexperienced investors. Year Dec 2023 I bought my first rental property in Lansing MI, purchase price 95000, 25% down + closing cost end up at 30000$, 7.5% interest, so my mortgage with insurance and taxes included was 721$/month. Renting it at 1245$, so it was not too bad. However, I did not know that the taxes did not reflect the purchase price, so today I received a letter saying my new morgage payment was going to be 991$/month, which change the whole picture for us, we are paying property manager since we live in Florida. So we are cash flowing 131$, giving us about 5% ROI, I think we can make higher on another deal. Should I sell? I think we can sell it for 120000, so is it worth it? We think if the interest get lower we can make it work, home is appreciated well I think, roof is new and we pay to change the furnace recently, so I guess in that sense we would not have big expenses any time soon, at least in repairs. What do you think? Thank you for any advice !

Rent minus PITI is not the cash flow. There are numerous other expenses. This property does not have decent cash flow and is likely negative cash flow if properly allocating for sustained expenses

$1245 (rent) - $991 (PITI) - $125 (PM: allocate for it even if self managing unless you believe your time is worthless) - $60 (vacancy and uncollected rent) - $300 (sustained maintenance/cap ex) -$50 (misc: bookkeeping, asset protection, utilities that cannot ethically be charged to tenant such as slab leak, etc). Is -$281/month.

Or via the 50% rule which is aggressive at that rent point (implying your sustained cash flow will be worse than depicted by the 50% rule):

$1245 - 622 (50% rule for all expenses except mortgage) - $498 (P&i) = $125/ month

If it really has appreciated from $95k to $120k in 25 months it could be worth holding for the appreciation if you believe that level of appreciation is likely to continue.

$120k - $95k = $25k of appreciation

$25k / 15 (months) = $1,667/month of appreciation.

Selling will not net you much after subtracting selling costs and expenses related the cap ex that you paid.   

Good luck

Fannie/freddie (F/F) conventional residential loan is the cheapest money available. Leverage properties produce greatest ROI in virtually all markets. cash flow is taxed I. The year it is earned.

I exert effort to maintain high leverage.   I refinance regularly to maintain a high level of leverage and to minimize income taxes.  Choosing 15 year loan over a 30 year loan is foreign to me.  

To show it in a different perspective, does any good investor have any issue achieving long term return in excess of F/f?   The S&P 500 lifetime return approaches 10%.  When F/f rate is high, it implies an inflationary time.  During inflationary times, the returns available via investments are copious. There are a plethora of options that historically produce better return than F/F, some of which produce enough better to even cover the taxes.

If you do not understand how leverage magnifies return in virtually every RE market, educate.  Leverage is the differentiator that allows RE to achieve magnified returns.  Without leverage most people would do better investing in a diversified index fund and the diversified index fund is significantly more passive.

Good luck

I think AI and robots have the potential to increase productivity rates significantly.  Less people will be required to produce what is needed.  I also believe many areas have too many people.   So a gradual population decline would be more to my liking. 

I was in the Smithsonian natural history museum yesterday.  Big mistake to go on a Saturday.   The inside was so crowded.  Also yesterday a trip up the old postal building tower had a 1 hour wait.

A few weeks ago the Grand Canyon south rim had a 1.5 hour wait to enter the park.

Local mountains get snow and every Yahoo is there.  Same for a good year on the local desert flowers (this year was not good).   I mostly avoid the local beaches on the weekend.   I do not use the beach house on the weekends.

Quotas that hit quota in a minute or have lottery.  The Wave, Washington monument, JMT, Grand Canyon backpack permits, nearly every trailhead in the southern sierras, etc  

I believe technology will extend healthy years and increase productivity rates significantly such that continued population growth is unnecessary.  

In a housing shortage market, it means reduced occupancy; instead of 2 people per BR in b- to c- areas, it could me maybe a br per 1.25 people.   

I am not worried about the price of real estate or dropping values.

Good luck