@Dave Meyer here's how I came up with my ranges. I'll only do the likely.
I was able to see the property on Tuesday and it definitely has more potential than I expected.
I'm 6'4" and was posting the original post in a window seat of a Southwest flight and had probably 20x combinations of spreadsheets so apologies I wasn't more precise.
Cliff Notes: The one BP Calc I posted took the Stabilized monthly cash flow from the spreadsheet of $1,475 + my mortgage $1,793 since the calc takes out my mortgage. Not exact, but close enough for a 'cocktail napkin' sardined into a window seat spilling ginger ale on my keyboard.
My lending officer was working on a mortgage of $300K. So the numbers I was working off of was worst case getting the house at $300K.
P&I - $1,260
Property Tax - $313
Home Insurance - $100
Mortgage Insurance - $121
The mortgage will be more like $1,600
A little background on me is that I own 7 properties in Kansas City and manage them all remotely. I have my plumbers, handymen, painters, HVAC etc. With that said LTR and STR rentals are apple and oranges I do realize. There's a contractual obligation to have someone at the ready for the worst case. My realtor has two houses in the same neighborhood that she manages herself. I haven't gotten my hands dirty with discussing her managing the property yet but that's my current plan. Plan B is another property management company to manage in the next town over. Need to get the house under contract, but that is a paramount worry of mine.
I'm only putting Nest cams in the showers and changing areas...
... wait? No, I mean, I'm putting the Nest Cams in the house looking OUTSIDE. The front window looking out, back door, possible the tree looking back onto the property, etc. All above board.
If this property was half of the 2 properties like this one than it would be 10.5 nights a month. Putting those numbers into my BP Calc I'd be breaking even. May through Sept is almost 90% accuracy for homes that are half as nice as this will be when done. Winter/offseason is in the 73-84% percentile.
Subject line says it all. What am I doing wrong?