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All Forum Posts by: Giovanni Isaksen

Giovanni Isaksen has started 5 posts and replied 293 times.

Post: Houston, Austin, San Antonio

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

Thanks @James Syed and @Joe Fairless

One thing I should have mentioned about the ALN data that I like is that they break out the stabilized property performance from the overall so that distortions in the numbers by new properties in lease up are eliminated. If you subtract the stabilized numbers from the general numbers you can get an idea of what's going on with the new properties too.

The HB reports are nice because they break out the submarkets, that level of detail usually isn't free.

Also if you like reports in video format MPF's Property Management Insider site covers many of the larger TX cities: http://www.propertymanagementinsider.com/regional-apartment-markets They also break the data out by submarket and although they don't produce a video for every market every quarter you can't get a feel for what's going. A bonus for DFW investors is that they do separate reports for Dallas and Fort Worth too.

Post: Numbers for a Multifamily Property Analysis

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

A couple more things: I didn't see any set aside for Capex reserves for replacing big things like roofs, HVAC, parking lots, etc. On 5+ units banks typically underwrite a minimum of $250 per unit per year which would be another 2k out of your cash flow. Many times what should be set aside is even more than the bank minimum; older properties, flat roof, central boiler, swamp coolers, etc could make the actual capital expenditures more like 350 or 400/unit/year, and I've seen as high as 450. Even if the bank doesn't require escrowing those reserves they should definitely be set aside as you go along to avoid having to put a new roof or something on your credit card because there's no cash available.

The other thing would be to make sure the expense numbers are real and that they cover all the maintenance actually required so that they're not based on leaving a lot of 'deferred' maintenance for you to repair.

Post: Houston, Austin, San Antonio

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

@James Syed @James Syed the ALN website has apartment market statistics for most of the major TX cities: http://alndata.com/Market_News.php

For demographic data, Texas A&M's Real Estate Center has info down to county level: http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/

Hendricks Berkadia has 2013 stats and 2014 forcasts for those cities: http://www.apartmentupdate.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=regions.main&regpage=5

Those are free resources but you may have to register to see the HB reports. Also the HB data may only measure larger apartment properties since they are pretty institutionally focused but smaller properties will be subject to the same general market forces.

Good hunting-

Post: Deal Analysis

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

I don't think there's any shortcut to figuring out where a property's income and expenses fall in relation to each other and in comparison to the local market. Without knowing the market rents there's no way to tell where a particular property's potential is. Without knowing what it costs to run and maintain a specific building of a certain construction and age there's no way to figure out if the property is or could make money.

As others have said the 50% rule is just a guide. If a property has high vacancy or rents are very low, the expenses likely are well above 50%... or at least would be if the building was being properly maintained. I mainly use the 50% rule to tell how bovine byproduct free the seller and/or broker are. If a building is well occupied and expenses are shown at 25 or 30%, then Lucy's got some 'splainin' to do.

Whether you crunch the numbers on a yellow pad or a spreadsheet doesn't matter as long is your math is done correctly. That's why I like spreadsheets, because you only have to do the math right once and it works from then on. Whether you build your own or use someone else's is an interesting question.

One one hand it's very hard to get the depth of understanding of how the numbers work by using someone else's spreadsheet but if you're not in the building spreadsheets business there may be better uses of your time, like finding deals. That said I've been building spreadsheets since VisiCalc was new and we have more than 4,000 hours of development and testing time into our deal analysis template. You can see samples of it on our website but 95% of the work we've done won't be visible unless someone's built a lot of spreadsheets. It was worth it to me, our clients and apparently our users.

There are a number of Real Estate MBA courses where the final is to build a detailed analysis spreadsheet from scratch but it's probably more profitable in the long run to hire an MBA than to go get one yourself if you want to be a real estate owner.

Post: How Would YOU Spend $100,000?

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

I have to go with @Derek Carroll's choice of A... plus. To all those who like C ask yourself this; Where do most apartment investors start out and why did they become apartment investors?

Post: Is Southern California really that bad?

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230
Originally posted by @Trevor Lohman:

@Jonathan M. "I have to say if you're going to rent to college kids, a Seventh Day Adventist (no alcohol or caffeine) Medical school is a good place to start."

@Trevor Lohman Your quote gets my vote for best of the year!

@LEONID ORLOV Jon and Joel raise good questions about the property but my questions would begin with the market. What attracted you to TX? What is it about Desoto? What are the local economic drivers? Where do people work who live there? How well do you know the neighborhoods in Desoto?

A couple things from my perspective: TX is a very low barrier to development state especially compared to CA and even the geography is wide open so the danger is that developers will just move a mile down the road and build new product to compete with yours if good employment is headed that way.

The other thing is that on another BP thread someone was pitching bus tours of apartment deals in the Dallas area and that is a sure sign things are getting frothy in a market. Bus tours are the shoeshine boys of real estate investment: "I knew it was time to sell when my shoeshine boy gave me a stock tip." - Joseph P. Kennedy Sr.

Post: ?Thinking of an investment in a hedge fund?

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

@Chris Martin Thanks for your detailed reply. Whether they can ever prove the model is the issue. Like @Mike Peter, a client of mine who works at a large hedge fund did a detailed analysis and they passed on it as well. He said that fully reserved they just won't cash flow enough consistently to drive the returns above hurdle. Which is why the REIT exit is the best way out for them as you stated Chris.

I also agree that SFR REITs are worth 1x book and if they could prove their model they might get to 2.5x but in the public markets all bets are off. With some good CNBC facetime and the momentum guys get a hold of them the sky's the limit. I can see Jim Cramer pimping them with bells and whistles and throwing things.

Post: ?Thinking of an investment in a hedge fund?

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

Nice analysis @Chris Martin

Tom Barrack over at Colony Capital has a quick breakdown of the institutional opportunities and challenges (starting about 6:00) in this Bloomberg interview:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/barrack-no-interest-in-weinstein-miramax-merger-oxQdjzvpQ9iobci~ByM9IA.html

Tom talking about Blackstone's resi lending platform: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000228443

and more from Tom: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000214952

Granted he's talking his own book (and he pulled their own REIT IPO during the taper tantrum) but his is the 30,000 ft. institutional view. Just like back in the late eighties and early nineties when apartment REITs first came and nobody really understood how they would completely change that market, the single family rental market will be changed: Small investors (The Mom & Pops in institutional lingo) will have to raise their game to compete, especially since as @Mike H. points out the institutions are working with equity capital instead of debt so their cost of funds is at least theoretically lower.

Post: Debt Coverage Ratio, Cap Rate & Cash on Cash Return

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

If you are relying on debt financing for your deal, the lender will care about DCR and by extension you will need to as well. If the proposed loan won't debt cover to the lender's satisfaction then more equity is required which will reduce the cash on cash return, all else being equal. Knowing your lender's DCR requirements beforehand will allow you to focus on deals that will work or at least capital structures that will work. After that hurdle is cleared then you can narrow in on those that provide the required investor returns as @Justin B mentions.